Shared research study link
Democratic House Candidates 2026 - Swing District Voter Perception
Understand what swing district voters want from Democratic House candidates in 2026, what messaging resonates, and what issues matter most in competitive races
Study Overview
Updated Jan 16, 2026
Research question: What do swing-district voters want from Democratic House candidates in 2026, what messaging resonates, and which issues matter most in competitive races?
Research group: Six swing-district voices (ages 29–62) across rural IA/IN, Cincinnati/Chicago, and California’s Central Valley-independents, Dem‑leaning working-class, and Hispanic immigrant‑adjacent voters in trades, budgeting, service/logistics, and admin roles.
What they said: They want granular, local, budgeted, time‑bound plans focused on infrastructure (roads, broadband, water, transit), job pathways (manufacturing, trades, apprenticeships), public safety with accountability, specific cost‑of‑living relief (rent, groceries, utilities, meds, insurance), and accessible constituent service (bilingual, printed, phone).
Message test: “Protect Social Security, lower costs, hold corporations accountable” resonates only when backed by timelines, pay‑fors, enforcement, and consumer restitution; culture‑war posturing, fundraising spam, app‑only outreach, and photo‑ops repel. Main insights: The most persuasive proof is a short “district contract” with dated, dollarized commitments, public tracking (“show the spreadsheet”), and regular, off‑camera local presence; rhetoric without receipts fails.
Differentiators: Policies balancing safety with independent oversight and pragmatic, humane immigration perform best, energy/climate must not spike household bills, and niche but salient asks include right‑to‑repair, ethanol/biodiesel support, data‑privacy crackdowns, and nuanced reproductive language in some quarters.
Takeaways: Publish a 3–5 item district contract with pay‑fors and a Social Security solvency explainer; deliver one visible 30‑day local fix; center messages on lowering specific bills and visible enforcement (junk fees, PBMs, utilities) with consumer relief; stand up offline, bilingual constituent services and cut spam; lock in apprenticeships/right‑to‑repair; and pair public safety with independent review and transparent metrics.
Research group: Six swing-district voices (ages 29–62) across rural IA/IN, Cincinnati/Chicago, and California’s Central Valley-independents, Dem‑leaning working-class, and Hispanic immigrant‑adjacent voters in trades, budgeting, service/logistics, and admin roles.
What they said: They want granular, local, budgeted, time‑bound plans focused on infrastructure (roads, broadband, water, transit), job pathways (manufacturing, trades, apprenticeships), public safety with accountability, specific cost‑of‑living relief (rent, groceries, utilities, meds, insurance), and accessible constituent service (bilingual, printed, phone).
Message test: “Protect Social Security, lower costs, hold corporations accountable” resonates only when backed by timelines, pay‑fors, enforcement, and consumer restitution; culture‑war posturing, fundraising spam, app‑only outreach, and photo‑ops repel. Main insights: The most persuasive proof is a short “district contract” with dated, dollarized commitments, public tracking (“show the spreadsheet”), and regular, off‑camera local presence; rhetoric without receipts fails.
Differentiators: Policies balancing safety with independent oversight and pragmatic, humane immigration perform best, energy/climate must not spike household bills, and niche but salient asks include right‑to‑repair, ethanol/biodiesel support, data‑privacy crackdowns, and nuanced reproductive language in some quarters.
Takeaways: Publish a 3–5 item district contract with pay‑fors and a Social Security solvency explainer; deliver one visible 30‑day local fix; center messages on lowering specific bills and visible enforcement (junk fees, PBMs, utilities) with consumer relief; stand up offline, bilingual constituent services and cut spam; lock in apprenticeships/right‑to‑repair; and pair public safety with independent review and transparent metrics.
Participant Snapshots
6 profiles
Lisa Ocana
Lisa Ocana, 30, is a married, Spanish-at-home office/sales admin for an agricultural equipment distributor on rural Fresno’s outskirts. Expecting her first child, she’s frugal, faith-grounded, and values durability, simplicity, transparent pricing, and time…
Joseph Hilton
Joseph Hilton, a Chicago-born Black courier, 44, separated, no kids. Rents in Bronzeville, budgets tightly, values durability and community. Bike-powered, church-rooted, Bulls-watching pragmatist considering a CDL while navigating winter winds, early shifts…
Henry Bartos
Pragmatic 62-year-old maintenance supervisor in rural Iowa. Married, child-free, home paid off. Values reliability, serviceability, and clear terms. Hands-on hobbies, conservative spending, independent politics, and careful tech adoption with rural bandwidt…
Natasha Santos
Natasha Santos, 45, is a Honduran-born repair-shop pro in Homestead City. Single, uninsured, and offline-first, she values reliability, community, and cash transparency. Warm, witty, and resourceful, she balances tight budgets with steady, practical optimism.
Daniel Langdon
Daniel Langdon, 30, is a rural Indiana public finance analyst. Married, no kids, faith-driven, and practical. Hybrid work, outdoor hobbies, and volunteer service anchor his life. He prioritizes durability, transparency, and total cost of ownership.
Brittany Bedell
A Cincinnati-based former teacher, Brittany Bedell is on a purposeful pause to upskill while living modestly on her spouse’s income. She values practicality, community, and durability, and makes decisions through a filter of function, ethics, and low friction.
Lisa Ocana
Lisa Ocana, 30, is a married, Spanish-at-home office/sales admin for an agricultural equipment distributor on rural Fresno’s outskirts. Expecting her first child, she’s frugal, faith-grounded, and values durability, simplicity, transparent pricing, and time…
Joseph Hilton
Joseph Hilton, a Chicago-born Black courier, 44, separated, no kids. Rents in Bronzeville, budgets tightly, values durability and community. Bike-powered, church-rooted, Bulls-watching pragmatist considering a CDL while navigating winter winds, early shifts…
Henry Bartos
Pragmatic 62-year-old maintenance supervisor in rural Iowa. Married, child-free, home paid off. Values reliability, serviceability, and clear terms. Hands-on hobbies, conservative spending, independent politics, and careful tech adoption with rural bandwidt…
Natasha Santos
Natasha Santos, 45, is a Honduran-born repair-shop pro in Homestead City. Single, uninsured, and offline-first, she values reliability, community, and cash transparency. Warm, witty, and resourceful, she balances tight budgets with steady, practical optimism.
Daniel Langdon
Daniel Langdon, 30, is a rural Indiana public finance analyst. Married, no kids, faith-driven, and practical. Hybrid work, outdoor hobbies, and volunteer service anchor his life. He prioritizes durability, transparency, and total cost of ownership.
Brittany Bedell
A Cincinnati-based former teacher, Brittany Bedell is on a purposeful pause to upskill while living modestly on her spouse’s income. She values practicality, community, and durability, and makes decisions through a filter of function, ethics, and low friction.
Overview
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 ACS 1-year (Table B19001; >$200k evenly distributed for comparison)
Media Ingestion
Connections appear when personas follow many of the same sources, highlighting overlapping media diets.
Questions and Responses
3 questions
Response Summaries
3 questions
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Persona Correlations
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Overview
Swing-district respondents coalesce around a demand for transactional, local-first Democratic candidacies in 2026: publish simple 3–5 item district contracts with dates, dollars and measurable milestones; show up in person; deliver one immediate, visible fix; and operate constituent services in accessible, non-app-first ways. Issue priorities sort by place and occupation: rural/Valley voters emphasize manufacturing, right-to-repair, water and energy affordability; Hispanic and immigrant-adjacent voters prioritize bilingual in-person outreach, clinics and dignified immigration assistance; urban working-class voters focus on transit reliability, housing stability, junk-fee enforcement and worker protections. Across segments there is broad support for public safety coupled with transparent oversight, and a strong rejection of nationalized culture-war posturing and performative messaging. Fiscal clarity (pay-fors and scored plans) and auditable policy proposals materially increase persuasive potential among fiscally minded and independent voters.
Total responses: 18
Key Segments
| Segment | Attributes | Insight | Supporting Agents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Older rural trades / maintenance |
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Respondents want job-focused economic resilience (apprenticeships, manufacturing, right-to-repair), infrastructure treated as utility (broadband, energy), and concrete timelines/budgets. Messaging that is practical, non-coastal and avoids culture-war themes is persuasive. | Henry Bartos |
| Younger rural public-sector professionals (budget/administration) |
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These voters will consider Democratic candidates who present scored, auditable 5–10 year plans with explicit pay-fors and county-level impact. They prioritize infrastructure and pragmatic immigration solutions for farm labor while demanding law-and-order with transparent oversight. | Daniel Langdon |
| Valley / agricultural suburban (Spanish-bilingual) |
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Water storage/permits, utility rate relief (PG&E), childcare/family supports and protections against cost-spiking climate policy are immediate priorities. They respond strongly to bilingual outreach, visible candidate presence in agricultural settings, and a localized contract of clear fixes. | Lisa Ocana |
| Hispanic working-class, immigrant-adjacent (Spanish-first) |
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In-person Spanish-language services, clinics with weekend hours, printed materials and phone-based help are prioritized over digital-first strategies. Dignified immigration processing and quick tangible fixes (streetlight, mobile clinic) create outsized trust. | Natasha Santos |
| Urban working-class Black service / logistics workers |
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Top priorities are transit reliability and safety, housing affordability without displacement, worker protections (including portable benefits), and enforcement of junk fees. They demand district offices in commercial corridors, quarterly town halls, and substantive constituent casework rather than photo-op politics. | Joseph Hilton |
| Young urban progressive-leaning but pragmatic voters |
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They want concrete local wins (lead line replacement, safer streets, transit improvements), unapologetic reproductive rights, practical gun-safety balanced with civil liberties, and donor transparency. They dislike consultant-speak and social-media performativity; prefer evidence-based local policy promises. | Brittany Bedell |
Shared Mindsets
| Trait | Signal | Agents |
|---|---|---|
| Demand for local, specific deliverables | Nearly every respondent wants a short, auditable district contract (3–5 items) with timelines, dollar figures and measurable milestones; tangible early wins are key credibility drivers. | Henry Bartos, Daniel Langdon, Brittany Bedell, Lisa Ocana, Natasha Santos, Joseph Hilton |
| Cost-of-living focus | Lowering monthly costs (utilities, rent, groceries, meds, insurance) is a primary motivator across geographies; effective messaging ties policy to concrete monthly savings. | Natasha Santos, Lisa Ocana, Joseph Hilton, Brittany Bedell, Henry Bartos |
| Public safety paired with accountable oversight | Respondents support law enforcement functionality but insist on transparent use-of-force review and measurable accountability mechanisms-rejecting both anti-police theatrics and hollow sloganeering. | Daniel Langdon, Lisa Ocana, Natasha Santos, Joseph Hilton, Henry Bartos |
| Rejection of culture-war and performative politics | Coastal culture-war messaging, endless fundraising spam, and social-media stunts alienate; sober, operational language and visible service delivery build trust. | Brittany Bedell, Henry Bartos, Joseph Hilton, Lisa Ocana, Daniel Langdon |
| Preference for fiscal clarity and pay-fors | Particularly in rural and budget-minded respondents, credible policies must show offsets and independent scoring; unfunded mandates are deeply unpopular. | Daniel Langdon, Henry Bartos, Brittany Bedell |
| Desire for accessible, offline constituent services | Printed materials, Spanish-language outreach, walk-in offices and phone-based casework matter more than app-first solutions-real-world help converts skepticism into support. | Natasha Santos, Lisa Ocana, Brittany Bedell, Joseph Hilton |
Divergences
| Segment | Contrast | Agents |
|---|---|---|
| Fiscal-minded rural professionals vs. Young urban progressives | Rural budget analysts insist on pay-fors, multi-year scored plans and county-level fiscal impacts; young urban progressives prioritize immediate local wins and uncompromised stances on issues like reproductive rights. Messaging that emphasizes long-term fiscal stewardship resonates with the former but can feel hedged to the latter. | Daniel Langdon, Brittany Bedell |
| Valley agricultural workers vs. Urban progressives on climate tactics | Valley respondents prioritize water, pumps and avoiding overnight bans that spike household costs; they respond negatively to climate proposals perceived as top-down cost drivers. Urban progressives are more comfortable with regulatory approaches if framed as equity- and public-health-driven. | Lisa Ocana, Brittany Bedell |
| Hispanic Spanish-first voters vs. app-first digital outreach advocates | Spanish-first, immigrant-adjacent voters require printed, in-person, weekend clinic access and phone support; app-first and digital-only constituent services are ineffective and alienating for this group. | Natasha Santos, Lisa Ocana |
| Older rural trades vs. younger urban activists on tone and cultural framing | Older rural tradespeople respond to non-ideological, job-focused messaging and distrust coastal culture-war framing; younger urban activists want unapologetic progressive stances on social issues. Effective campaigns must avoid polarizing national rhetoric while signal-checking core values in district-appropriate language. | Henry Bartos, Brittany Bedell |
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Recommendations & Next Steps
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Overview
Voters in competitive districts want Democrats to replace national slogans with granular, local, budgeted, timebound deliverables. The most persuasive artifact is a short district contract that itemizes near-term fixes (infrastructure, apprenticeships, utility relief, transit) with dollars, dates, and public tracking. Tone and channels matter: visible constituent service, bilingual and paper options, fewer spam asks, and respectful, non-culture-war framing. Core policy expectations: public safety with accountability, lowering specific household bills, Social Security solvency with math, and local jobs/trades including right-to-repair. ROI comes from a fast pivot to auditable plans, an offline-first service model, and a few early, tangible wins voters can feel.
Quick Wins (next 2–4 weeks)
| # | Action | Why | Owner | Effort | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Launch a 3–5 item District Contract template (one-pager + spreadsheet) | Directly matches the strongest persuasion cue: dated, dollarized, local commitments voters can audit. | Policy Lead + Comms Director | Low | High |
| 2 | Stand up bilingual, printed materials + hotline script | Spanish-first and offline voters demand paper and phone access; fast trust win with low cost. | Field Director + Constituent Services Manager | Low | High |
| 3 | Publish a "Show the spreadsheet" cost-of-living calculator | Validates fiscal honesty and specifies which bills drop (utilities, meds, fees) with timelines. | Data Lead + Policy Analyst | Med | High |
| 4 | Enforcement receipts kit (junk fees, data brokers, PBMs) | Voters want visible enforcement and consumer relief, not pressers; provide named targets and remedies. | Comms Director + Legal/Policy Counsel | Low | Med |
| 5 | First 30-day local fix program | Deliver one tangible win now (e.g., streetlight restored, clinic weekend hours, grant filed) to prove execution. | Field Director + District PM | Med | High |
| 6 | Trades + right-to-repair talking points and MOU template | Signals respect for rural/industrial voters; creates immediate jobs/apprenticeship commitments. | Policy Lead + Partnerships Manager | Low | Med |
Initiatives (30–90 days)
| # | Initiative | Description | Owner | Timeline | Dependencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | District Contract Program | Produce a district-specific, dated and dollarized contract (3–5 items) per campaign with a public spreadsheet dashboard tracking milestones, costs, and funding sources. Include local infrastructure, apprenticeships, and one quick win within 30 days. | Program Director | Draft in 2 weeks; publish within 30–45 days; update biweekly through E‑Day | Local partner scoping (DOT/transit/water/ISPs), Budget validation and pay-fors, Design/print vendor for one-pagers, Candidate buy-in |
| 2 | Cost-of-Living & Enforcement Package | Bundle practical actions that lower specific bills (utilities, meds, insurance, fees): weatherization/rebate navigation, junk-fee crackdown messaging with case examples, med cost transparency, insurance/utility grievance scripts, and one-click-cancel commitments. | Policy Lead | Framework in 3 weeks; local adaptations by week 6; first enforcement receipt by week 8 | Regulatory/AG liaison, Healthcare pricing data and PBM analysis, Utility/housing program catalogs, Comms legal review |
| 3 | Offline/Bilingual Constituent Services & Immigration Clinics | Shift to an offline-first service model: printed guides, Spanish-language materials, live phone line, walk-in pop-ups at libraries/churches, and quarterly legal/clinic days. Set a 48-hour casework SLA and post a simple status dashboard. | Constituent Services Manager | Hotline + print pack in 2 weeks; first pop-up clinic by day 30; monthly cadence thereafter | Interpreter/translator pool, Community venue MOUs, Casework CRM and dashboard, Privacy and data-handling SOPs |
| 4 | Jobs, Trades & Right-to-Repair Accelerator | Broker MOUs between community colleges, unions, and employers for paid apprenticeships; publish counts, start dates, wages. Add a right-to-repair pledge and local manufacturing/broadband build targets. | Partnerships Manager | Employer roundtables by week 4; signed MOU(s) by week 8; cohorts launch within 90 days | Employer/union commitments, Workforce board coordination, Funding alignment (WIOA/EDA/private), Legal review on R2R pledge |
| 5 | Safety with Accountability Framework | Define a pragmatic public safety plank: support enforcement against violent crime and straw buyers, plus independent oversight, due process, and transparency. Include station safety walks, lighting upgrades, and grant targets (e.g., FTA/DOJ). | Policy Lead + Field Director | Framework in 2 weeks; safety walks start by day 30; first grant submission by day 60 | Law enforcement/community org partners, Grant writers, Data transparency protocols, Civil liberties legal review |
| 6 | Fiscal Scoring & Solvency Lab | Publish pay-fors and multi-year scores for marquee proposals. Include a Social Security solvency explainer with 10-year and 75-year views, a no–unfunded mandates pledge, and district-level impact sheets. | Research Director | Initial models in 4 weeks; validators lined up by week 6; updates quarterly | External budget validators, Data engineering for models, Message QA against diverse segments, Design for plain-language explainers |
KPIs to Track
| # | KPI | Definition | Target | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | District Contract Adoption | Share of target campaigns publishing a 3–5 item, costed district contract with public tracking | ≥80% by day 45; 100% by day 90 | Biweekly |
| 2 | First 30-Day Tangible Fixes | Average number of visible local fixes delivered within 30 days (e.g., clinic hours, streetlight, grant filed) | ≥1 per campaign by day 30; ≥2 by day 60 | Monthly |
| 3 | Casework Responsiveness | Median time from casework intake to first live response; % resolved within 14 days | <=48 hours to first response; ≥70% resolved in 14 days | Weekly |
| 4 | Bilingual/Offline Coverage | Share of priority districts with Spanish-language and printed one-pagers + live hotline | 100% of relevant districts by day 30 | Monthly |
| 5 | Persuasion Lift on Contract Messaging | Change in intent among swing segments after exposure to the district contract | +5–8 pts in net preference | Per research wave |
| 6 | Engagement Quality (Anti-Spam) | Fundraising/contact volume vs. CTR/reply rate after spam reduction policy | −50% blast volume; 2x email CTR; +25% reply rate | Weekly |
Risks & Mitigations
| # | Risk | Mitigation | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Overpromising and missing public deadlines damages credibility | Scope conservatively, include buffers, label dependencies, and publish status with on-track/at-risk flags | Program Director |
| 2 | National-party narratives conflict with local framing (e.g., safety, energy costs) | Set district-specific message guardrails and escalation paths; pre-clear deviations with legal/comms | Comms Director |
| 3 | App-first execution alienates Spanish-first and offline voters | Enforce offline-first SOPs (print + phone) and audit quarterly for compliance | Constituent Services Manager |
| 4 | Fiscal plans attacked as tax hikes or gimmicks | Use independent validators, publish assumptions, show household bill impact with scenarios | Research Director |
| 5 | Corporate pushback on enforcement (junk fees, data brokers, PBMs) | Select winnable cases, coordinate with AGs/regulators, highlight consumer relief outcomes | Legal/Policy Counsel |
| 6 | Data or dashboard errors erode trust | Implement QA checklists, version control, and a quick-correct protocol with public changelogs | Data Lead |
Timeline
0–14 days:
- Publish District Contract template + spreadsheet; pick first 30‑day fix per district
- Launch hotline script, Spanish/printed one-pagers
- Safety framework draft; identify grant targets
- Release district contracts publicly; begin biweekly updates
- Deliver first tangible fix; hold first pop-up clinic/town hall (bilingual)
- Employer roundtables for apprenticeships; draft R2R pledge
- Cost-of-living calculator MVP and first enforcement "receipt"
- Signed apprenticeship MOUs and cohort launch dates
- Submit initial safety/transit/infra grants; start station safety walks
- Publish Social Security solvency explainer and no–unfunded mandates pledge
- Expand print/offline distribution; refine dashboards based on QA
- Biweekly contract progress reports
- Monthly clinics/town halls; quarterly deliverable recaps
- Continuous spam reduction and message QA
Research Study Narrative
Objective and context
Claude commissioned qualitative research to understand what swing‑district voters want from Democratic House candidates in 2026, what messaging resonates, and which issues matter most in competitive races. Across three lines of questioning, respondents consistently rejected national slogans and fundraising theater, demanding granular, local, budgeted, and timebound proposals with visible follow‑through.
What we heard across questions
- Plans, not platitudes. Voters want dated, dollarized commitments they can audit. As Henry Bartos put it, “Show me parts, steps, timelines, costs.” Brittany Bedell: “Publish a first‑year checklist… Put dollar amounts next to each item.”
- Local infrastructure and jobs. Roads, broadband, water, transit, and apprenticeships are top tier. Daniel Langdon asked for lane‑mile targets and per‑mile costs; multiple respondents backed paid trades pathways and right‑to‑repair for farm/shop equipment.
- Lower specific household bills. Relief must name which costs fall and when: rent, groceries, utilities, meds, insurance, junk fees. Natasha Santos: “Lower costs yes, but say which bills.” Joseph Hilton favored one‑click cancel, overdraft caps, full price up front.
- Protect Social Security with math. Protection is non‑negotiable, but solvency must be shown. Langdon: “Put a concrete solvency plan on paper with a 10‑year score and a 75‑year outlook.” Santos warned, “Do not play with that money.”
- Public safety with accountability. Support enforcement on violent crime and gun safety balanced with due process and independent oversight.
- Authenticity and presence. Show up, listen unscripted, and operate offline‑first constituent service. Santos: “Speak Spanish… Printed info and phone help. No app‑only nonsense.”
- Visible enforcement on corporate harm. Voters want named targets and consumer relief on junk fees, PBMs, hospital mergers, data brokers (Hilton/Langdon).
- Energy and climate framed around affordability and jobs. Practical mixes (ethanol/biodiesel, grid upgrades, permitting) and clear bill impacts calm skepticism (Bartos).
Persona correlations and nuances
- Older rural trades/maintenance: Jobs/apprenticeships, right‑to‑repair, energy affordability, and non‑culture‑war tone (Bartos).
- Rural public‑sector budget‑minded: Scored 5–10 year plans with pay‑fors and county‑level impact; pragmatic immigration/safety with oversight (Langdon).
- Hispanic, immigrant‑adjacent, Spanish‑first: In‑person Spanish‑language outreach, printed materials, live phone help, weekend clinics; quick local fixes build trust (Santos).
- Urban working‑class logistics/service: Transit reliability/safety, housing stability, junk‑fee enforcement, portable benefits; substantive casework over photo‑ops (Hilton).
- Young urban pragmatists: Concrete local wins (lead line replacement, safer streets, transit), donor transparency, unapologetic on rights with operational detail (Bedell).
Implications and recommendations
- Adopt a “District Contract.” Publish 3–5 line‑item commitments with dates, dollars, partners, and a public spreadsheet/dashboard; update biweekly. Tie each item to felt outcomes (paved miles, broadband trenching, bus frequency, clinic hours).
- Cost‑of‑living plan that “shows the spreadsheet.” Name which bills drop, by how much, and when; pair with an “enforcement receipts” track (junk fees, PBMs, data brokers) showing consumer relief.
- Offline‑first constituent services. Printed one‑pagers, Spanish materials, a live hotline, and walk‑in pop‑ups with a 48‑hour response SLA.
- Safety with accountability. Back enforcement against violent crime/straw buyers plus independent oversight, due process, and transparency; include lighting and station safety walks.
- Jobs, trades, and right‑to‑repair. Broker MOUs for paid apprenticeships; publish cohort counts/wages; include a right‑to‑repair pledge.
- Energy affordability and local jobs. Pair grid upgrades and permit reform with clear household bill impacts; avoid overnight bans that spike costs.
- Social Security solvency. Publish a 10‑year and 75‑year scored plan with assumptions and levers.
Risks and measurement guardrails
- Overpromising. Scope conservatively; publish on‑track/at‑risk flags and dependencies.
- National vs. local conflicts. Set district guardrails; pre‑clear deviations from national language when local impacts warrant.
- Digital‑only execution. Enforce offline‑first SOPs (print + phone) and audit quarterly.
- Fiscal attacks. Use independent validators and household bill scenarios.
- Corporate pushback. Choose winnable cases; coordinate with regulators; emphasize consumer relief.
Next steps and KPIs
- 0–14 days: Publish the District Contract template + spreadsheet; launch hotline and Spanish/printed one‑pagers; draft safety framework.
- 15–45 days: Release district contracts; deliver one tangible local fix; hold the first bilingual clinic; run employer roundtables; ship a cost‑of‑living calculator MVP; announce first enforcement case.
- 46–100 days: Sign apprenticeship MOUs; submit initial infra/safety grants; publish a solvency explainer; expand print/offline distribution; refine dashboards.
- KPIs: Contract adoption ≥80% by day 45; ≥1 first‑30‑day fix; casework response ≤48 hours and ≥70% resolved in 14 days; bilingual/offline coverage 100% in relevant districts; +5–8 point persuasion lift after contract exposure.
Recommended Follow-up Questions
Updated Jan 16, 2026
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Among the following local priorities, which are most and least important for a congressional candidate to focus on in their first year? You will choose the most and least important in a series of sets.maxdiff Identifies top-tier issue tradeoffs to focus the platform and paid media on what matters most in practice.
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Which candidate background experiences most and least increase your confidence in their ability to deliver for your community? You will choose most and least across several sets.maxdiff Guides biography emphasis, recruiting, and surrogate selection to maximize credibility with target voters.
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How acceptable or unacceptable are the following ways to pay for new initiatives or cost-of-living relief?matrix Surfaces viable funding approaches and avoids pay-fors that trigger backlash, informing policy design and messaging.
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Rank the following proof points by how much they would increase your confidence that a candidate will follow through, from most to least persuasive.rank Determines which evidence (e.g., draft bill text, funding spreadsheets, dashboards) to prioritize in the "proof" package.
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Rank the following local messengers by how much you would trust them to vouch for a candidate’s plan, from most to least trusted.rank Optimizes endorsement and surrogate strategy by elevating the most trusted validators.
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Which communication channels are you most likely to pay attention to when a congressional candidate reaches out? Select all that apply.multi select Allocates outreach resources toward high-attention channels and away from low-ROI tactics.
Questions intentionally avoid prior open-ended themes by quantifying tradeoffs (priorities, credibility, pay-fors), testing proof points and messengers, and pinpointing effective channels for deployment.
Study Overview
Updated Jan 16, 2026
Research question: What do swing-district voters want from Democratic House candidates in 2026, what messaging resonates, and which issues matter most in competitive races?
Research group: Six swing-district voices (ages 29–62) across rural IA/IN, Cincinnati/Chicago, and California’s Central Valley-independents, Dem‑leaning working-class, and Hispanic immigrant‑adjacent voters in trades, budgeting, service/logistics, and admin roles.
What they said: They want granular, local, budgeted, time‑bound plans focused on infrastructure (roads, broadband, water, transit), job pathways (manufacturing, trades, apprenticeships), public safety with accountability, specific cost‑of‑living relief (rent, groceries, utilities, meds, insurance), and accessible constituent service (bilingual, printed, phone).
Message test: “Protect Social Security, lower costs, hold corporations accountable” resonates only when backed by timelines, pay‑fors, enforcement, and consumer restitution; culture‑war posturing, fundraising spam, app‑only outreach, and photo‑ops repel. Main insights: The most persuasive proof is a short “district contract” with dated, dollarized commitments, public tracking (“show the spreadsheet”), and regular, off‑camera local presence; rhetoric without receipts fails.
Differentiators: Policies balancing safety with independent oversight and pragmatic, humane immigration perform best, energy/climate must not spike household bills, and niche but salient asks include right‑to‑repair, ethanol/biodiesel support, data‑privacy crackdowns, and nuanced reproductive language in some quarters.
Takeaways: Publish a 3–5 item district contract with pay‑fors and a Social Security solvency explainer; deliver one visible 30‑day local fix; center messages on lowering specific bills and visible enforcement (junk fees, PBMs, utilities) with consumer relief; stand up offline, bilingual constituent services and cut spam; lock in apprenticeships/right‑to‑repair; and pair public safety with independent review and transparent metrics.
Research group: Six swing-district voices (ages 29–62) across rural IA/IN, Cincinnati/Chicago, and California’s Central Valley-independents, Dem‑leaning working-class, and Hispanic immigrant‑adjacent voters in trades, budgeting, service/logistics, and admin roles.
What they said: They want granular, local, budgeted, time‑bound plans focused on infrastructure (roads, broadband, water, transit), job pathways (manufacturing, trades, apprenticeships), public safety with accountability, specific cost‑of‑living relief (rent, groceries, utilities, meds, insurance), and accessible constituent service (bilingual, printed, phone).
Message test: “Protect Social Security, lower costs, hold corporations accountable” resonates only when backed by timelines, pay‑fors, enforcement, and consumer restitution; culture‑war posturing, fundraising spam, app‑only outreach, and photo‑ops repel. Main insights: The most persuasive proof is a short “district contract” with dated, dollarized commitments, public tracking (“show the spreadsheet”), and regular, off‑camera local presence; rhetoric without receipts fails.
Differentiators: Policies balancing safety with independent oversight and pragmatic, humane immigration perform best, energy/climate must not spike household bills, and niche but salient asks include right‑to‑repair, ethanol/biodiesel support, data‑privacy crackdowns, and nuanced reproductive language in some quarters.
Takeaways: Publish a 3–5 item district contract with pay‑fors and a Social Security solvency explainer; deliver one visible 30‑day local fix; center messages on lowering specific bills and visible enforcement (junk fees, PBMs, utilities) with consumer relief; stand up offline, bilingual constituent services and cut spam; lock in apprenticeships/right‑to‑repair; and pair public safety with independent review and transparent metrics.
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