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Haley Stevens Michigan Senate 2026 - Voter Perception
Understand how Michigan voters perceive Haley Stevens as a Senate candidate, what messaging resonates, and what it takes to win in this toss-up race
Study Overview
Updated Jan 16, 2026
Research question: What do Michigan voters need to see from Haley Stevens to view her as a winning Senate candidate, which messages resonate, and what would make them take a second look?
Who we heard from: 6 respondents skewing older and rural/suburban, including blue‑collar drivers, a bilingual working‑class voice, and midlife professional managers; a few were out-of-state but evaluated through a Michigan, operations-first lens.
What they said: Stevens’s auto‑rescue background gives her credibility as a sleeves‑rolled‑up operator, but support is contingent on concrete plans, measurable outcomes, and clear tradeoffs, not consultant-speak; “Trump‑Musk chaos” reads like a bumper sticker unless paired with receipts.
They want a jobs‑first EV/manufacturing transition (apprenticeships, wage floors, supplier protections, clawbacks), near‑term healthcare cost relief, rural infrastructure with dates and funding, and visible independence and oversight; outliers prioritized a clean federal privacy law, medical cold‑chain reliability/USPS performance, and practical rules for drivers and gig workers.
Main insights: Auto credentials help only when translated into enforceable, time‑bound commitments with plant‑level specificity, supplier bridge supports, and quarterly public scorecards; health care must show immediate, local savings, and public safety must pair support with independent accountability and data transparency.
Trust triggers: publish donor/meeting logs, name responsible managers, hold unscripted town halls (including rural and bilingual), and track delivery quarterly.
Clear takeaways: Lead with a posted, contract‑style plan listing projects/plant addresses, dollar amounts, start/finish dates, wage and apprenticeship guarantees, and penalties for misses-update it quarterly-and avoid celebrity/culture‑war frames in favor of receipts that tie jobs, costs, and timelines to everyday life.
Who we heard from: 6 respondents skewing older and rural/suburban, including blue‑collar drivers, a bilingual working‑class voice, and midlife professional managers; a few were out-of-state but evaluated through a Michigan, operations-first lens.
What they said: Stevens’s auto‑rescue background gives her credibility as a sleeves‑rolled‑up operator, but support is contingent on concrete plans, measurable outcomes, and clear tradeoffs, not consultant-speak; “Trump‑Musk chaos” reads like a bumper sticker unless paired with receipts.
They want a jobs‑first EV/manufacturing transition (apprenticeships, wage floors, supplier protections, clawbacks), near‑term healthcare cost relief, rural infrastructure with dates and funding, and visible independence and oversight; outliers prioritized a clean federal privacy law, medical cold‑chain reliability/USPS performance, and practical rules for drivers and gig workers.
Main insights: Auto credentials help only when translated into enforceable, time‑bound commitments with plant‑level specificity, supplier bridge supports, and quarterly public scorecards; health care must show immediate, local savings, and public safety must pair support with independent accountability and data transparency.
Trust triggers: publish donor/meeting logs, name responsible managers, hold unscripted town halls (including rural and bilingual), and track delivery quarterly.
Clear takeaways: Lead with a posted, contract‑style plan listing projects/plant addresses, dollar amounts, start/finish dates, wage and apprenticeship guarantees, and penalties for misses-update it quarterly-and avoid celebrity/culture‑war frames in favor of receipts that tie jobs, costs, and timelines to everyday life.
Participant Snapshots
6 profiles
Casandra Espinoza
Casandra Espinoza, 52, Glendale AZ-based bilingual Hispanic Senior Enterprise Account Executive in cybersecurity; high-earning and remote. Separated, child-free, lives alone with a rescue dog. Values time, transparency, privacy, durable quality; health- and…
Nakia Woolard
Rural Massachusetts product manager, 52, married with a teen. Pragmatic, privacy-aware, community-minded. Prefers reliable, durable, low-hype solutions. Balances work deadlines, family routines, and outdoor time within a stable mid-to-high income household.
Alejandro Lindsay
1) Basic Demographics
Alejandro Lindsay is a 61-year-old Black man living in rural Maryland, USA. He was born in the United States, speaks English at home, and identifies as Catholic. He is married and has one adult child. He is a U.S. Army veter…
Darrell Xayarath
Darrell Xayarath, 59, is a Nepali-speaking livery driver in rural Connecticut. Divorced, living alone, frugal and reliable, he values durability, clear pricing, and practical tools, while supporting family abroad and managing long work hours.
Linda Mitchell
Widowed 65-year-old retiree in rural Georgia; practical, neighborly, and faith-rooted. Lives alone with her beagle, gardens in raised beds, quilts, and values reliability, clear pricing, and local service. Moderate politics; careful yet open-minded shopper.
Kevin Roybal
Kevin Roybal, 42, Spanish-first Jewish Texan in rural Texas, not currently working. Frugal, practical, community-oriented ex-construction worker finishing his GED. Values durability, clear no-contract options, bilingual support, and faith-guided simplicity.
Casandra Espinoza
Casandra Espinoza, 52, Glendale AZ-based bilingual Hispanic Senior Enterprise Account Executive in cybersecurity; high-earning and remote. Separated, child-free, lives alone with a rescue dog. Values time, transparency, privacy, durable quality; health- and…
Nakia Woolard
Rural Massachusetts product manager, 52, married with a teen. Pragmatic, privacy-aware, community-minded. Prefers reliable, durable, low-hype solutions. Balances work deadlines, family routines, and outdoor time within a stable mid-to-high income household.
Alejandro Lindsay
1) Basic Demographics
Alejandro Lindsay is a 61-year-old Black man living in rural Maryland, USA. He was born in the United States, speaks English at home, and identifies as Catholic. He is married and has one adult child. He is a U.S. Army veter…
Darrell Xayarath
Darrell Xayarath, 59, is a Nepali-speaking livery driver in rural Connecticut. Divorced, living alone, frugal and reliable, he values durability, clear pricing, and practical tools, while supporting family abroad and managing long work hours.
Linda Mitchell
Widowed 65-year-old retiree in rural Georgia; practical, neighborly, and faith-rooted. Lives alone with her beagle, gardens in raised beds, quilts, and values reliability, clear pricing, and local service. Moderate politics; careful yet open-minded shopper.
Kevin Roybal
Kevin Roybal, 42, Spanish-first Jewish Texan in rural Texas, not currently working. Frugal, practical, community-oriented ex-construction worker finishing his GED. Values durability, clear no-contract options, bilingual support, and faith-guided simplicity.
Overview
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 ACS 1-year (Table B19001; >$200k evenly distributed for comparison)
Media Ingestion
Connections appear when personas follow many of the same sources, highlighting overlapping media diets.
Questions and Responses
3 questions
Response Summaries
3 questions
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Persona Correlations
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Overview
Across 18 responses, Haley Stevens’s auto/EV background is a net asset when paired with verifiable, worker-focused implementation plans. Voters across rural retirees, blue-collar drivers, midlife professional managers, bilingual working-class respondents, and logistics-focused operators converge on one demand: show receipts. Effective persuasion requires enforceable jobs-for-incentives compacts, publicly posted scorecards with dollars/dates/named managers, apprenticeship and wage-protection guarantees, supplier-bridge supports and clawbacks, and concrete healthcare cost mechanisms. Rhetoric that frames a choice as "chaos vs. competence" can win only when buttressed by measurable commitments; otherwise it reads as empty theater. Messaging must avoid consultant-speak, culture-war grandstanding, and vague EV timelines that ignore on-the-ground job and operational impacts. Bilingual outreach and immediate household-level relief (clinic/dental, clear retraining-to-pay continuity) are key to persuading Spanish-speaking and working-class voters.
Total responses: 18
Key Segments
| Segment | Attributes | Insight | Supporting Agents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Older, rural retirees and near-retirees (60+) |
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They respond to steady, defensible guarantees and simple line-item plans with dates and funding sources; performative contrast or theatrical messaging is off-putting. Messaging that quantifies benefits to Social Security/Medicare and ties infrastructure promises to specific funding lines and timelines increases credibility. | Linda Mitchell, Darrell Xayarath, Nakia Woolard |
| Older blue-collar / transport workers (drivers, livery, delivery sales managers) |
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They translate EV/auto policy into immediate operational needs: truck parking, winter-range assurances, permit/regulatory fairness, and non-disruptive fee structures. Successful messaging links EV transition plans to concrete mitigations for drivers (designated parking, charging corridors, permit clarity) and assurances against sudden pay reductions. | Darrell Xayarath, Alejandro Lindsay |
| Midlife professional managers (product/sales/tech backgrounds) |
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These voters expect modern governing priorities and operational rigor: a federal baseline privacy law, transparent donor disclosure, healthcare savings quantified, and enforceable program metrics. They are persuadable by a candidate who provides technical plans (timelines, named managers) and third-party tracking mechanisms rather than slogans. | Casandra Espinoza, Nakia Woolard, Linda Mitchell |
| Working-class, Spanish-speaking or bilingual respondents |
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Retraining promises are credible only when they preserve household income. Bilingual plain-language outreach that explains pathways in 1–2 minutes, plus immediate bill/clinic/dental relief and guaranteed paid apprenticeships or wage-bridges, are decisive for this segment. | Kevin Roybal |
| Policy-technical / logistics-focused respondents |
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These voters judge candidates on granular operational commitments: cold-chain standards, USPS delivery targets, grid capacity guarantees at plants, named contingency leads and timelines. High-level PR won’t satisfy them; they want contingency plans and performance metrics tied to infrastructure investments. | Alejandro Lindsay |
Shared Mindsets
| Trait | Signal | Agents |
|---|---|---|
| Demand for concrete plans and measurable outcomes | Across demographics, respondents repeatedly call for 'receipts' - timelines, dollar figures, quarterly/public scorecards, and named accountable managers. Abstract promises reduce trust. | Casandra Espinoza, Alejandro Lindsay, Nakia Woolard, Linda Mitchell, Darrell Xayarath, Kevin Roybal |
| Worker-first EV / manufacturing transition | Support hinges on policies that protect pay and supplier ecosystems: apprenticeship seats, wage floors, clawbacks on incentives, and supplier bridge support are core demands. | Casandra Espinoza, Nakia Woolard, Kevin Roybal, Linda Mitchell, Alejandro Lindsay |
| Skepticism of theatrical or nationalized messaging | Voters are wary of contrast-as-theater and celebrity/PR stunts; they want substance. 'Chaos vs. competence' framing only lands when concrete evidence accompanies it. | Casandra Espinoza, Linda Mitchell, Darrell Xayarath, Kevin Roybal |
| Priority on healthcare cost transparency and enforcement | Respondents want mechanisms to lower costs (PBM transparency, enforcement tools, clinic/dental expansions) rather than generic 'access' statements. | Nakia Woolard, Linda Mitchell, Kevin Roybal |
| Accountability and transparency (donors, enforcement, oversight) | Requests for donor disclosures, enforceable clawbacks, public trackers, and named oversight reflect a common demand for accountable governance. | Casandra Espinoza, Nakia Woolard, Alejandro Lindsay, Darrell Xayarath |
Divergences
| Segment | Contrast | Agents |
|---|---|---|
| Older rural retirees vs. Midlife professional managers | Retirees prioritize straightforward guarantees for Social Security/Medicare and dislike theatrics; professional managers seek modern technical policy details (privacy law, measurable healthcare savings) and may tolerate more technical language if it includes metrics. | Linda Mitchell, Casandra Espinoza |
| Working-class Spanish-speaking respondents vs. Policy-technical logisticians | Spanish-speaking, working-class voters want immediate income-preserving retraining and bilingual, plain-language outreach focused on household impacts; logistics-focused respondents demand granular contingency standards (cold-chain, grid capacity) and systemic operational metrics that may be too technical for general outreach. | Kevin Roybal, Alejandro Lindsay |
| Drivers / gig workers (Darrell) vs. General EV supporters | Drivers emphasize winter-range realities, parking, permits, and non-fee regulatory stability - practical, day-to-day operational impacts - while some general EV supporters focus more on macro job creation and plant investments. Driver concerns require localized operational mitigations rather than national-level narratives. | Darrell Xayarath, Alejandro Lindsay |
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Recommendations & Next Steps
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Overview
Voters see Haley Stevens as a credible, sleeves-rolled-up operator, but will only reward her with votes if she delivers concrete, verifiable commitments tied to jobs, health costs, rural infrastructure, and transparency. The path to win this toss-up is to convert the auto-rescue resume into a jobs-first EV/manufacturing program with wage floors, paid apprenticeships, supplier protections, and enforceable clawbacks; pair it with immediate, measurable health-care cost relief; and run a campaign defined by public scorecards, donor transparency, and unscripted town halls across metro and rural communities. Avoid celebrity/culture-war framing; lead with receipts.
Quick Wins (next 2–4 weeks)
| # | Action | Why | Owner | Effort | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Launch public 'Receipts' page and 1-pagers by county | Respondents will 'only listen if there are spreadsheets and timelines'. Publishing dollars, projects, and dates immediately builds trust. | Policy Director + Digital Director | Low | High |
| 2 | Announce Jobs-for-Incentives Compact principles | Voters want wage floors, paid apprenticeships, local supplier spend, and automatic clawbacks-signal these rules now. | Labor & Industry Outreach Lead | Med | High |
| 3 | Stand up a quarterly public scorecard (MVP) with named owners | Desire for quarterly public reporting and named managers; proves accountability culture on day one. | Data Director + Operations Manager | Med | High |
| 4 | Publish donor mix and meeting logs policy | Skepticism of PAC/donor capture is high; transparency undercuts the attack and aligns with voter asks. | Compliance Counsel + Finance Director | Low | Med |
| 5 | Schedule unscripted town halls incl. rural + bilingual sessions | Voters want her to show up beyond metros and engage plainly; Spanish-language access matters. | Field Director | Med | High |
| 6 | Healthcare 'bill-drop' explainer and savings calculator | They want near-term cost relief, not 'access' rhetoric-show monthly out-of-pocket impacts in 2 minutes. | Health Policy Advisor + Digital Director | Med | High |
Initiatives (30–90 days)
| # | Initiative | Description | Owner | Timeline | Dependencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jobs-First EV & Manufacturing Transition Compact | A signed, public compact with automakers, suppliers, and labor that sets wage floors, paid apprenticeships, union neutrality, supplier bridge supports, local hiring, plant-by-plant retool timelines, and clawbacks if targets slip. Include winter-operations realities (charging at apartments/workplaces; grid reliability) and a supplier prompt-pay standard. | Labor & Industry Outreach Lead | Draft principles in 2 weeks; secure letters of intent in 30–45 days; first plant-level schedules within 60–90 days. | UAW and trades unions, Detroit 3 + EV/new entrants, Community colleges/apprenticeship programs, Utilities for grid/charging coordination, State economic development agencies |
| 2 | Healthcare Cost Relief and Hospital Accountability Package | Plain-English plan with near-term savings: site-neutral payments, PBM transparency, anti-consolidation enforcement, urgent/dental clinic hours expansion, surprise-bill crackdowns. Add operational planks on cold-chain reliability (regional couriers standards) and USPS service targets for meds/samples. | Health Policy Advisor | Policy framework within 2 weeks; endorsements and bill list in 30 days; savings explainer and clinic expansions mapped by 45 day | Local health systems and clinics, State AG/DOJ guidance on consolidation, Patient advocacy groups, Regional medical couriers, USPS congressional oversight allies |
| 3 | Transparency, Safety, and Accountability Program | Codify donor/meeting logs, quarterly scorecards with named managers, and monthly unscripted Q&A. Public-safety plank: body cams, clear use-of-force standards, and independent incident reviews (including federal agents) with a 30-day data-release clock. | Operations Manager + Communications Director | Policy posted in 1 week; first scorecard MVP in 2 weeks; first accountability town hall within 30 days. | Compliance/legal review, Independent oversight partners, Data infrastructure for scorecards, Local media/town hall venues |
| 4 | Rural Infrastructure and Great Lakes Plan | Publish a map-first plan with named road fixes, winter maintenance schedules, lead-line and PFAS cleanup timelines, rural broadband build with open-access/uptime metrics, and rail spur/truck parking priorities tied to plant timelines. | Rural Outreach Lead | Priority corridor list and top-10 fixes in 2 weeks; funding pathways and partners in 30 days; public tracker entries by 45 days. | County road commissions/MDOT, EPA/state environmental agencies, ISPs/electric co-ops, Freight/rail partners, Local contractors |
| 5 | Privacy & Cybersecurity First-100-Days Pledge | Commit to introduce a clean federal privacy law (default opt-outs, data minimization, breach liability, private right of action, no carve-outs) in first 100 days. Name co-sponsors sought, enforcement model, and a consumer data advocate hire. | Tech & Privacy Policy Lead | Draft principles in 2 weeks; coalition letters in 30 days; bill framework and co-sponsor targets by 45–60 days. | Consumer privacy coalitions, Bipartisan Senate privacy caucus, State AGs, Civil liberties orgs |
| 6 | Driver and Small Supplier Fairness Initiative | Package for drivers and small shops: simplify permits, cap junk fees, on-time NEMT pay, fund wheelchair securement training, expand truck parking and charging corridors; supplier prompt-pay pledge (net-30), fair contracting, and right-to-repair support. | Small Business & Transportation Lead | Stakeholder roundtables in 2 weeks; policy slate in 30 days; pilot commitments (parking/charging, prompt-pay) in 45–60 days. | Gig platforms/NEMT brokers, Hospitals/insurers, County/city planners, Small manufacturer associations, Right-to-repair coalition |
KPIs to Track
| # | KPI | Definition | Target | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EV Compact Adoption | Number of plants/suppliers signing onto wage floors, apprenticeships, and clawbacks; total apprenticeship seats committed. | 6+ facilities and 2k+ apprenticeship seats in 90 days | Quarterly |
| 2 | Scorecard Cadence & Transparency | On-time publication of quarterly scorecards with named owners; donor/meeting logs updated weekly. | 100% on-time scorecards; weekly transparency updates without lapse | Monthly |
| 3 | Healthcare Savings Reach | Households reached with bill-drop calculator; clinic/urgent-dental hours added; endorsements for site-neutral/PBM reforms. | 100k calculator uses; +200 clinic hours; 10+ organizational endorsements in 60 days | Monthly |
| 4 | Rural Engagement & Delivery | Unscripted town halls outside metros; attendance; top-10 road fix tracker entries with dates/costs. | 12 rural town halls; 1,800 total attendees; all top-10 projects tracked within 45 days | Biweekly |
| 5 | Supplier & Driver Fairness | Small suppliers under prompt-pay pledge; average days payable; truck parking/charging spots announced; NEMT on-time payment commitments. | 150 suppliers; avg DPO < 30; 500 parking/charging spots; 3 NEMT pay commitments | Quarterly |
| 6 | Privacy Pledge Momentum | Co-sponsors secured; coalition letters; public support actions for a clean privacy bill. | 8+ bipartisan co-sponsors; 20+ coalition letters in 60 days | Monthly |
Risks & Mitigations
| # | Risk | Mitigation | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Overpromising deliverables beyond a Senator’s authority, leading to backlash if timelines slip. | Frame as signed compacts, letters of intent, and legislative milestones (introduce, co-sponsor, oversight) with clear scopes; include dependencies and contingencies. | Policy Director |
| 2 | Industry pushback on wage floors, union neutrality, and clawbacks. | Co-design phased standards with automakers/suppliers; emphasize predictability and shared benefits; recruit bipartisan economic validators. | Labor & Industry Outreach Lead |
| 3 | Data errors on public scorecards damaging credibility. | Instituting QA checks, third-party review, and change logs; start with MVP metrics and expand once validated. | Data Director |
| 4 | Too-technical messaging alienates general audiences. | Publish plain-language TL;DR and Spanish versions; use visuals and 2-minute explainer videos; train surrogates in simple framing. | Communications Director |
| 5 | Transparency policy exposes controversial donors or gaps. | Adopt clear donor standards, proactively narrate reforms, highlight small-dollar share, and separate policy positions from donor interests. | Compliance Counsel |
| 6 | Public-safety oversight messaging gets framed as anti-law-enforcement. | Stand with sheriffs/chiefs who back accountability; pair body cams/independent reviews with investments in training and officer wellness. | Public Safety Policy Lead |
Timeline
Week 1–2: Post Receipts page; publish transparency policy; announce rural/bilingual town halls; scorecard MVP live; draft EV compact principles and healthcare framework.
Day 15–30: Secure EV compact letters of intent; release healthcare bill list + savings calculator; publish top-10 rural road fixes with dates/costs; host first accountability town hall.
Day 31–60: Sign first plant-level compact schedules; launch supplier prompt-pay pledge; announce truck parking/charging corridors; coalition letters for privacy bill; clinic/urgent-dental hours expansion map.
Day 61–90: Expand compact to additional plants; update scorecard; release PFAS/lead-line map with timelines; USPS/cold-chain standards letter; second round of rural town halls with progress updates.
Day 15–30: Secure EV compact letters of intent; release healthcare bill list + savings calculator; publish top-10 rural road fixes with dates/costs; host first accountability town hall.
Day 31–60: Sign first plant-level compact schedules; launch supplier prompt-pay pledge; announce truck parking/charging corridors; coalition letters for privacy bill; clinic/urgent-dental hours expansion map.
Day 61–90: Expand compact to additional plants; update scorecard; release PFAS/lead-line map with timelines; USPS/cold-chain standards letter; second round of rural town halls with progress updates.
Research Study Narrative
Objective and context
Objective: Understand how Michigan voters perceive Haley Stevens as a Senate candidate, what messaging resonates, and what it takes to win in a toss-up race. Across 18 qualitative responses, voters consistently credit Stevens’s auto-rescue background as real-world, operations-focused experience-but they condition support on concrete plans, measurable outcomes, and visible accountability. They reject bumper-sticker contrasts (e.g., “chaos agenda”) unless paired with receipts.
What voters told us (cross-question learnings)
- Operational credibility is a net asset-if converted to specifics. The auto rescue signals competence on jobs and supply chains. As Casandra Espinoza put it: “Solid on paper… understands real jobs and supply chains, not just slogans.”
- Receipts over rhetoric. Voters want dollars, timelines, named managers, and enforcement. Alejandro Lindsay: “If she brings spreadsheets and timelines, I listen… Put it on paper and post the scorecard quarterly.”
- Jobs-first EV/manufacturing transition. Support hinges on wage floors, paid apprenticeships, supplier protections, grid/charging readiness, and automatic clawbacks. Nakia Woolard: “Metrics by quarter: workers trained, wage floors, and plant conversions.”
- Healthcare cost relief with teeth. Voters want near-term savings: site-neutral payments, anti-consolidation enforcement, PBM transparency, surprise-bill crackdowns, and expanded urgent/dental hours. (Nakia Woolard, Kevin Roybal.)
- Accountability and transparency. Publish donor mix and meeting logs; hold quarterly town halls; name constituent-service leads; set independent oversight on public safety. (Casandra Espinoza.)
- Infrastructure and reliability. Name road fixes with dates/costs, winter maintenance, broadband, and water/PFAS/lead-line timelines; ensure grid readiness at plants. (Darrell Xayarath, Alejandro Lindsay.)
- Reject sloganized attacks. “Chaos” and celebrity-focused contrasts risk tuning out voters unless backed by measurable commitments.
- Technical priorities surfaced by some. Cold-chain/medical logistics and USPS delivery targets; prompt-pay for suppliers; simple, fair rules for drivers; a clean federal privacy law in the first 100 days.
Patterns across respondent types
- Shared mindsets: receipts over slogans; worker-first industrial policy; cost-cutting health care; transparency and oversight.
- Operational diversity: Some respondents judge competence through logistics (cold chain, grid capacity, USPS targets); others through immediate household impacts (income-preserving retraining, clinic access). The throughline is verifiable delivery.
Actionable recommendations
- Launch a public “Receipts” hub with county one-pagers listing projects, dollar amounts, start/finish dates, and named owners.
- Announce a Jobs-for-Incentives Compact (wage floors, paid apprenticeships, union neutrality, local supplier spend, prompt-pay, grid/charging readiness) with automatic clawbacks and plant-by-plant schedules.
- Roll out a Healthcare Cost & Accountability package (site-neutral payments, PBM transparency, anti-consolidation enforcement, surprise-bill bans, expanded urgent/dental hours), plus medical logistics planks (regional couriers standards, USPS service targets).
- Codify transparency and oversight: donor/meeting logs, quarterly public scorecards, monthly unscripted Q&A; body cams and independent incident reviews with a 30-day data-release clock.
- Publish a map-first infrastructure plan with named road fixes, winter pothole schedules, broadband uptime metrics, and water/PFAS/lead-line cleanup timelines.
- Ensure plain-language and multilingual access so pathways to apprenticeships, wage continuity, and clinic services are clear in two minutes or less.
Risks and guardrails
- Overpromising beyond a Senator’s authority → Frame as compacts, letters of intent, and legislative/oversight milestones with dependencies and contingencies.
- Industry pushback on wage floors/clawbacks → Phase standards, co-design with labor/industry, recruit bipartisan validators.
- Data errors on scorecards → QA, third-party review, change logs; start MVP metrics, expand after validation.
- Overly technical messaging → Provide TL;DRs, visuals, and multilingual plain-language explainers.
- Transparency exposure → Adopt donor standards, narrate reforms, highlight small-dollar share.
Next steps and measurement
- Weeks 1–2: Publish Receipts hub and transparency policy; launch scorecard MVP; announce compact principles; post healthcare framework; schedule unscripted town halls.
- Days 15–30: Secure compact letters of intent; release healthcare bill list and savings explainer; publish top-10 road fixes with costs/dates; first accountability town hall.
- Days 31–60: Sign first plant schedules; launch supplier prompt-pay pledge; announce truck parking/charging corridors; clinic/urgent-dental hours expansion map.
- Days 61–90: Expand compact to additional plants; update scorecard; release PFAS/lead-line map; issue USPS/cold-chain standards letter.
- KPIs to track: facilities and apprenticeship seats under the compact; on-time scorecards and weekly transparency updates; households using a bill-drop calculator and added clinic hours; number and attendance of town halls and tracked road fixes; suppliers under prompt-pay and average days payable; parking/charging spots announced.
Recommended Follow-up Questions
Updated Jan 16, 2026
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When choosing a Michigan U.S. Senate candidate, which outcomes matter most to you? Please rank your top five. - Create and protect good-paying manufacturing jobs in Michigan - Lower health care costs - Reduce everyday costs and inflation - Fix roads, bridges, and winter maintenance - Expand high-speed broadband - Keep communities safe from violent crime - Strengthen border security and legal immigration systems - Protect the Great Lakes and drinking water (PFAS/lead) - Improve skills training an...rank Prioritizes which policy outcomes to lead with in paid and earned media; informs agenda sequencing.
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How convincing are the following potential messages from a Michigan Senate candidate? (You will be shown sets of statements.) - Make more auto and battery components in Michigan - Publish a public scorecard with timelines and independent audits - Work across party lines to pass infrastructure and manufacturing bills - Lower health costs by stopping hospital price gouging - Deliver rural basics: roads, bridges, and broadband on schedule - Claw back subsidies when companies miss job or wage commit...maxdiff Identifies the most persuasive topline message to anchor ads, stump speech, and homepage.
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Which criticisms, if true, would most and least give you pause about voting for Haley Stevens? (You will be shown sets of statements.) - She is a rubber stamp for national Democrats - Her EV policies would cost Michigan auto jobs - She relies on money from special interests - She talks about plans but does not deliver results - She is soft on crime - She would raise taxes on working families - She is a DC insider, out of touch with Michigan - She focuses on Oakland County, not the rest of the st...maxdiff Surfaces most dangerous lines of attack to pre-bunk or inoculate against in contrast ads.
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Which evidence or validators would most and least increase your confidence in Haley Stevens’s promises? (You will be shown sets of statements.) - Signed, enforceable project agreements for specific plants and jobs - Independent auditor reports with quarterly progress dashboards - Video testimonials from local auto workers in their workplaces - Joint endorsement from a Republican and a Democratic mayor - Announcement detailing federal dollars with county-by-county allocations - Pledge and documen...maxdiff Reveals which proof points and validators to produce first to build credibility and trust.
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Please indicate your level of agreement with each potential “jobs-for-incentives” rule for companies receiving state or federal subsidies in Michigan. - Tie incentives to wage floors at or above regional manufacturing averages - Require paid, registered apprenticeships on subsidized projects - Claw back subsidies if job or investment targets are missed - Prioritize Michigan suppliers and on-time payment standards - Restrict stock buybacks and executive bonuses for subsidized firms - Accept fewer...matrix Tests voter tolerance for higher standards and tradeoffs, guiding incentive policy and plant announcement commitments.
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Which specific health care cost actions from a Senate candidate are most and least persuasive to you? (You will be shown sets of statements.) - Cap monthly insulin costs - Expand Medicare drug price negotiation to more medicines sooner - Enforce site-neutral payments to lower hospital outpatient prices - Ban anti-competitive hospital mergers - Require up-front, all-in hospital and clinic price transparency - Crack down on pharmacy benefit managers to pass rebates to patients - Aggressively enfor...maxdiff Pinpoints the health cost actions that move votes, guiding policy emphasis and storytelling.
Recommend fielding with a Michigan-representative sample (geography, age, race, education, union status, partisanship) and sufficient N for MaxDiff stability. Include independents and soft partisans for persuasion insights.
Study Overview
Updated Jan 16, 2026
Research question: What do Michigan voters need to see from Haley Stevens to view her as a winning Senate candidate, which messages resonate, and what would make them take a second look?
Who we heard from: 6 respondents skewing older and rural/suburban, including blue‑collar drivers, a bilingual working‑class voice, and midlife professional managers; a few were out-of-state but evaluated through a Michigan, operations-first lens.
What they said: Stevens’s auto‑rescue background gives her credibility as a sleeves‑rolled‑up operator, but support is contingent on concrete plans, measurable outcomes, and clear tradeoffs, not consultant-speak; “Trump‑Musk chaos” reads like a bumper sticker unless paired with receipts.
They want a jobs‑first EV/manufacturing transition (apprenticeships, wage floors, supplier protections, clawbacks), near‑term healthcare cost relief, rural infrastructure with dates and funding, and visible independence and oversight; outliers prioritized a clean federal privacy law, medical cold‑chain reliability/USPS performance, and practical rules for drivers and gig workers.
Main insights: Auto credentials help only when translated into enforceable, time‑bound commitments with plant‑level specificity, supplier bridge supports, and quarterly public scorecards; health care must show immediate, local savings, and public safety must pair support with independent accountability and data transparency.
Trust triggers: publish donor/meeting logs, name responsible managers, hold unscripted town halls (including rural and bilingual), and track delivery quarterly.
Clear takeaways: Lead with a posted, contract‑style plan listing projects/plant addresses, dollar amounts, start/finish dates, wage and apprenticeship guarantees, and penalties for misses-update it quarterly-and avoid celebrity/culture‑war frames in favor of receipts that tie jobs, costs, and timelines to everyday life.
Who we heard from: 6 respondents skewing older and rural/suburban, including blue‑collar drivers, a bilingual working‑class voice, and midlife professional managers; a few were out-of-state but evaluated through a Michigan, operations-first lens.
What they said: Stevens’s auto‑rescue background gives her credibility as a sleeves‑rolled‑up operator, but support is contingent on concrete plans, measurable outcomes, and clear tradeoffs, not consultant-speak; “Trump‑Musk chaos” reads like a bumper sticker unless paired with receipts.
They want a jobs‑first EV/manufacturing transition (apprenticeships, wage floors, supplier protections, clawbacks), near‑term healthcare cost relief, rural infrastructure with dates and funding, and visible independence and oversight; outliers prioritized a clean federal privacy law, medical cold‑chain reliability/USPS performance, and practical rules for drivers and gig workers.
Main insights: Auto credentials help only when translated into enforceable, time‑bound commitments with plant‑level specificity, supplier bridge supports, and quarterly public scorecards; health care must show immediate, local savings, and public safety must pair support with independent accountability and data transparency.
Trust triggers: publish donor/meeting logs, name responsible managers, hold unscripted town halls (including rural and bilingual), and track delivery quarterly.
Clear takeaways: Lead with a posted, contract‑style plan listing projects/plant addresses, dollar amounts, start/finish dates, wage and apprenticeship guarantees, and penalties for misses-update it quarterly-and avoid celebrity/culture‑war frames in favor of receipts that tie jobs, costs, and timelines to everyday life.
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