Ohio Voters: 2026 Governor & Senate Sentiment
Understand Ohio voter sentiment heading into what Democrats call their biggest opportunity in 20 years. Explore how voters feel about the open governor race (Acton vs Ramaswamy), the Senate special election (Brown vs Husted), economic anxiety around manufacturing, and whether Ohio is still persuadable for Democrats.
Research group: n=10 registered Ohio voters (ages 28–62), largely rural with some suburban/urban from the Cleveland–Columbus–Cincinnati corridors; 70 responses across 7 questions.
What they said: Ohio is Republican-leaning but not locked; suburbs decide, shoe-leather matters, and voters are skeptical of Beltway “most important” hype. Races: Brown retains blue-collar credibility but carries D.C. baggage; Husted is polished, pro-business, and holds a default edge unless Brown runs a disciplined, local campaign.
For governor, respondents narrowly lean to Amy Acton for “boring competence” if she sets clear guardrails on mandates; Ramaswamy is seen as flashy/culture-war and light on operations.
Issues: Manufacturing talk is viewed as photo-op theater unless tied to clawbacks, in-state POs, and paid apprenticeships; inflation pain has shifted to fixed bills (insurance, utilities, taxes, medical); post-2023 abortion chipping is noticed and now functions as a trust test/tie-breaker. Main insights: Voters will reward concrete, measurable relief on fixed costs, enforceable manufacturing deals, and visible investments in roads/rail safety, clinics/EMS, and second-shift childcare-and they punish nationalized culture-war noise.
Takeaways: Run a competence-first, receipts-backed campaign; respect the 2023 abortion vote with clear doctor guidance; publish county-level dashboards and deadlines; focus message on utilities/insurance/medical billing and credible shop-floor wins; win twitchy suburbs while sweating small-county ground game.
William Fried
Retired Postal Service veteran in Dayton, married without children. Practical, union- and community-minded, faith-informed. Buys durable, fair-priced products, avoids hype and hidden fees. Enjoys woodworking, local sports, volunteering, and low-key regional…
Craig Thoreson
Steady, family-first operations supervisor in rural Ohio with three kids and a rented farmhouse. Pragmatic, budget-aware, and community-oriented. Prefers durable, serviceable products, clear pricing, and no contracts; avoids hype and hidden fees.
Glenn Warmbier
Retired Army mechanic in rural Ohio, married, no kids at home. Faith-driven, community-minded, budget-conscious. Prefers durable, repairable products, clear warranties, and respectful, straightforward messaging. Manages health proactively and favors regiona…
Dylan Robinson
28-year-old rural Ohio single dad and Army veteran; second-shift maintenance tech in auto supply. Practical, budget-conscious, union-aligned. Values reliability, time savings, and local support. Prefers durable gear, clear warranties, and simple setups.
Thaddeus Truitt
1) Basic Demographics
Thaddeus Truitt is a 47-year-old white male (he/him) living on a few acres outside a small town in rural Ohio, USA. He was born in the United States, speaks English at home, and is married with one child. He identifies as re…
Matthew Mabie
1) Basic Demographics
Matthew Mabie is a 50-year-old White male living in rural Ohio, USA. Born in the United States, he speaks English at home. He is divorced and has no children. He completed a Bachelor’s degree (History, Bowling Green State Un…
Eileen Novitske
Eileen Novitske, 60, is a rural Ohio retiree from a school office role. Frugal, church-involved, and community-minded, she values durability, clarity, and neighborly service, favoring dependable mid-priced solutions with transparent support over flashy trends.
Roque Franks
Reliable Cleveland-area chauffeur and devoted dad, 39, divorced with shared custody. Owns a modest home with a mortgage, uninsured, budget-minded, sports fan. Values reliability, transparency, and tools that save time and stretch dollars.
Zachery Gagne
Zachery Gagne, 43, is a rural Ohio construction-cleanup crew lead. Single, no kids, home paid off. Practical, community-minded, Catholic. Prefers durable gear, clear pricing, and proof over hype. Spends downtime hunting, tinkering, and helping neighbors.
Eric Flores
41-year-old rural Ohio production shift lead, married with two kids. Faith-driven, budget-disciplined, and pragmatic. Values durability, safety, and transparency. Uses vanpool, fixed wireless internet, and buys based on peer proof and total cost of ownership.
William Fried
Retired Postal Service veteran in Dayton, married without children. Practical, union- and community-minded, faith-informed. Buys durable, fair-priced products, avoids hype and hidden fees. Enjoys woodworking, local sports, volunteering, and low-key regional…
Craig Thoreson
Steady, family-first operations supervisor in rural Ohio with three kids and a rented farmhouse. Pragmatic, budget-aware, and community-oriented. Prefers durable, serviceable products, clear pricing, and no contracts; avoids hype and hidden fees.
Glenn Warmbier
Retired Army mechanic in rural Ohio, married, no kids at home. Faith-driven, community-minded, budget-conscious. Prefers durable, repairable products, clear warranties, and respectful, straightforward messaging. Manages health proactively and favors regiona…
Dylan Robinson
28-year-old rural Ohio single dad and Army veteran; second-shift maintenance tech in auto supply. Practical, budget-conscious, union-aligned. Values reliability, time savings, and local support. Prefers durable gear, clear warranties, and simple setups.
Thaddeus Truitt
1) Basic Demographics
Thaddeus Truitt is a 47-year-old white male (he/him) living on a few acres outside a small town in rural Ohio, USA. He was born in the United States, speaks English at home, and is married with one child. He identifies as re…
Matthew Mabie
1) Basic Demographics
Matthew Mabie is a 50-year-old White male living in rural Ohio, USA. Born in the United States, he speaks English at home. He is divorced and has no children. He completed a Bachelor’s degree (History, Bowling Green State Un…
Eileen Novitske
Eileen Novitske, 60, is a rural Ohio retiree from a school office role. Frugal, church-involved, and community-minded, she values durability, clarity, and neighborly service, favoring dependable mid-priced solutions with transparent support over flashy trends.
Roque Franks
Reliable Cleveland-area chauffeur and devoted dad, 39, divorced with shared custody. Owns a modest home with a mortgage, uninsured, budget-minded, sports fan. Values reliability, transparency, and tools that save time and stretch dollars.
Zachery Gagne
Zachery Gagne, 43, is a rural Ohio construction-cleanup crew lead. Single, no kids, home paid off. Practical, community-minded, Catholic. Prefers durable gear, clear pricing, and proof over hype. Spends downtime hunting, tinkering, and helping neighbors.
Eric Flores
41-year-old rural Ohio production shift lead, married with two kids. Faith-driven, budget-disciplined, and pragmatic. Values durability, safety, and transparency. Uses vanpool, fixed wireless internet, and buys based on peer proof and total cost of ownership.
Sex / Gender
Race / Ethnicity
Locale (Top)
Occupations (Top)
| Age bucket | Male count | Female count |
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| Income bucket | Participants | US households |
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Summary
Themes
| Theme | Count | Example Participant | Example Quote |
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Outliers
| Agent | Snippet | Reason |
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Overview
Key Segments
| Segment | Attributes | Insight | Supporting Agents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rural white blue-collar (working-age 28–62) |
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This group views Ohio as 'lean Republican but gettable' if candidates deliver on boots-on-the-ground presence, enforceable manufacturing deals, apprenticeships, road/ODOT fixes, local hospital supports and predictable energy costs. They reject abstract national rhetoric and prioritize concrete operational promises. | Craig Thoreson, Thaddeus Truitt, Dylan Robinson, Zachery Gagne, Glenn Warmbier, William Fried, Eric Flores |
| Older retirees (60+, fixed incomes) |
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Retirees are motivated by protecting pensions, preserving local ER/OB services, and shielding their budgets from persistent insurance/tax/medical inflation. They respond best to measurable guarantees (e.g., oversight, service-level commitments) rather than partisan conflict. | Glenn Warmbier, William Fried, Eileen Novitske |
| Urban/suburban pragmatic voters (Cleveland/Columbus/Cincy corridors) |
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These voters prioritize steady public services - healthcare access, fentanyl response, public safety, predictable utilities - and prefer calm, competent governance over culture-war fights. They are the crucial swing cohort in suburban contests. | Roque Franks, William Fried, Eileen Novitske, Eric Flores |
| Manufacturing and trade workers |
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Trade workers demand apprenticeship pipelines, enforceable procurement/clawback language, stable energy/power rates, and local infrastructure fixes. They are highly skeptical of ribbon-cutting incentives unless tied to real hiring and training commitments. | Dylan Robinson, Zachery Gagne, Thaddeus Truitt, Matthew Mabie, Eric Flores |
| Caregivers and second-shift workers (younger parents) |
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This cohort is decisive when offered specific service solutions: 24/7 or second-shift licensed childcare hubs, reserved non-daytime slots, and capped copays. Concrete operational programs here can lock in working-family votes and affect labor supply. | Dylan Robinson, Craig Thoreson |
Shared Mindsets
| Trait | Signal | Agents |
|---|---|---|
| Persuadable Republican-lean | Most respondents describe Ohio as leaning Republican but emphasize it’s 'gettable' with tailored, local, blue-collar messaging and visible in-person campaigning. | Craig Thoreson, Matthew Mabie, Glenn Warmbier, Thaddeus Truitt, Dylan Robinson, Zachery Gagne, Eileen Novitske |
| Preference for operational competence over rhetoric | Voters reward candidates who present concrete, enforceable plans (procurement clawbacks, apprenticeships, service-level guarantees) rather than abstract national messaging or culture-war posturing. | William Fried, Eric Flores, Dylan Robinson, Thaddeus Truitt, Zachery Gagne, Roque Franks, Craig Thoreson |
| Distrust of nationalized messaging and ad saturation | There is broad skepticism of consultant-driven TV ads, robo-texts and fundraising narratives; respondents want candidates to invest in local presence and accountability. | Craig Thoreson, Glenn Warmbier, Eileen Novitske, Thaddeus Truitt, Dylan Robinson |
| Manufacturing-as-photo-op skepticism | Manufacturing announcements are often read as theater unless accompanied by enforceable terms: in-state contracting, hiring commitments, apprenticeships and infrastructure investments. | Matthew Mabie, William Fried, Dylan Robinson, Zachery Gagne, Thaddeus Truitt, Eileen Novitske |
| Inflation concentrated on fixed costs | Voters are most worried about persistent increases in insurance, utilities, property taxes and medical bills; they want predictability and relief on recurring costs more than one-off grocery price drops. | Matthew Mabie, Glenn Warmbier, Roque Franks, Dylan Robinson, Eileen Novitske, William Fried, Zachery Gagne |
| Abortion protections seen as settled but a trust test | Many view the 2023 amendment as settling the question, but ongoing legislative or regulatory attempts to narrow access erode trust and can flip votes among persuadable cohorts. | Thaddeus Truitt, Craig Thoreson, Glenn Warmbier, William Fried, Eileen Novitske, Dylan Robinson, Eric Flores, Zachery Gagne, Roque Franks |
| Candidate heuristics shape early perceptions | Heuristics are strong: Acton = steady/competent but COVID baggage; Ramaswamy = flashy/outsider but light on details; Brown = labor credibility with D.C. baggage; Husted = polished/pro-business and default favorite in R-lean areas. | Craig Thoreson, Matthew Mabie, Glenn Warmbier, Roque Franks, Eileen Novitske, Thaddeus Truitt, Dylan Robinson, William Fried, Eric Flores |
Divergences
| Segment | Contrast | Agents |
|---|---|---|
| Rural blue-collar vs Urban/suburban voters | Rural voters prize candidate presence, energy/mandate skepticism and overt manufacturing job promises; urban/suburban voters prefer predictable public services (healthcare, safety, utilities) and are less receptive to nationalized culture-war appeals. | Craig Thoreson, Thaddeus Truitt, Zachery Gagne, Roque Franks, Eileen Novitske |
| Manufacturing/trade workers vs general electorate | Trade workers insist on binding apprenticeship and procurement commitments with clawbacks and local hiring; other voters may accept softer economic messaging if it includes visible infrastructure or healthcare gains. | Dylan Robinson, Zachery Gagne, Matthew Mabie, William Fried |
| Older retirees vs younger caregivers/shift workers | Retirees focus on protecting pensions, local hospitals, and controlling fixed costs; younger caregivers prioritize actionable childcare solutions (24/7/shift options) and workforce supports that allow continued employment. | Glenn Warmbier, William Fried, Eileen Novitske, Dylan Robinson, Craig Thoreson |
| Acton supporters (operational competence) vs Ramaswamy-leaning outsiders | Some voters tilt to Acton for perceived competence and managerial experience despite COVID baggage; others prefer Ramaswamy’s outsider messaging and posture against mandates and elites, valuing disruption over operational detail. | Craig Thoreson, Eric Flores, Matthew Mabie, Glenn Warmbier |
| Labor-aligned voters re: Brown vs anti-D.C. skepticism | Sherrod Brown retains trust on labor and union issues among pro-labor voters, but D.C. baggage and general anti-establishment sentiment leave space for Husted or an outsider to make inroads on governance and business competence grounds. | William Fried, Roque Franks, Eileen Novitske |
Overview
Quick Wins (next 2–4 weeks)
| # | Action | Why | Owner | Effort | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plain Talk + Receipts Message Kit (Ohio v1) | Respondents punish slogans and reward specific, local commitments on fixed costs, roads, clinics, and apprenticeships. | Comms Director | Low | High |
| 2 | Fixed-Cost Relief A/B Tests via API | Inflation pain has shifted to insurance, utilities, property taxes, medical bills; test which promise moves persuadables fastest. | Research Lead | Low | High |
| 3 | Manufacturing Deal Checklist (1-pager) | Voters distrust ribbon cuttings; demand clawbacks, purchase orders, apprenticeships, in-state preference. | Policy Lead (Econ Dev) | Low | High |
| 4 | County Listening Tour Scheduler (no-camera rule) | Ground game matters: show up at VFWs, fairs, union halls with plain talk; track Q&A in Ditto. | Field Ops Lead | Med | High |
| 5 | Abortion ‘Respect the Vote’ Micro-brief | Issue is a trust test: affirm 2023 outcome, provide doctor clarity, avoid re-litigating; flips ties in suburbs. | Policy Counsel + Comms | Low | Med |
| 6 | Local Validator Roster | EMTs, nurses, foremen, faith leaders increase credibility of boring competence messages. | Partnerships Manager | Med | Med |
Initiatives (30–90 days)
| # | Initiative | Description | Owner | Timeline | Dependencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio Fixed-Cost Relief Blueprint | Package 3-4 measurable, near-term commitments:
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Policy Lead | 6–8 weeks to v1; updates quarterly | PUCO/insurer legal review, Hospital and clinic pricing data access, Design + data viz support |
| 2 | Manufacturing Credibility Program | Standardize deal terms voters demand:
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Econ Dev Program Manager | 8–12 weeks to framework + first 2 pilots | Community colleges/JVS partners, County econ dev offices, Company MOUs, Trade counsel |
| 3 | Ground Game OS (Shoe-leather at Scale) | Build a Ditto-powered calendar + CRM to schedule and measure no-camera stops in small counties and twitchy suburbs; capture issues, commitments, and local validators. Redirect media budget to field where ROI > TV. | Field Ops Lead + Data Eng | 2–4 weeks MVP; rolling expansion | Volunteer/ally network, Voter file access, Mobile app/workflow setup |
| 4 | Suburban Persuasion Sprint | Micro-test creative on health costs, schools, safety, abortion trust. Ship only winners to field scripts, mail, and local radio. Explicitly avoid culture-war frames. | Comms + Research | 4–6 weeks testing; monthly refresh | Panel access (Franklin/Cuyahoga/Hamilton), Creative production, Attribution setup |
| 5 | Abortion ‘Respect-the-Vote & Doctor Clarity’ Program | Codify and communicate:
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Policy Counsel + Health Advisor | 3–5 weeks to publish; monitor ongoing | Medical association input, Legal review, Hospital stakeholders |
| 6 | County Health + EMS Floor | Design a 4-year, inflation-indexed per-capita funding floor for county clinics/EMS; define eligible uses (nurses, mobile clinics, overdose supplies, EMS OT) and quarterly public reporting. | Health Policy Lead | 6–8 weeks to policy + fiscal note | County health commissioners, State budget analysts, Data-sharing agreements |
KPIs to Track
| # | KPI | Definition | Target | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Receipts Density | Share of outbound messages that include a specific, dated, measurable local commitment (e.g., utility rider sunset by X date). | ≥70% of messages include 1+ concrete commitment | Weekly |
| 2 | Persuasion Lift (Fixed-Cost Frames) | Change in favorability/intent among suburban and rural persuadables after exposure to fixed-cost relief promises vs baseline. | +4–6 pts net favorability within 6 weeks | Biweekly |
| 3 | Field Presence Index | Count of no-camera events in small counties + attendees + validator activations logged to Ditto. | ≥150 events; ≥1,500 attendees; ≥200 validators/quarter | Monthly |
| 4 | Manufacturing Deal Quality | Percent of announced projects with clawbacks, apprenticeship seats, and in-state POs publicly documented. | ≥80% of deals meet all 3 criteria | Quarterly |
| 5 | Abortion Trust Signal | Share of swing voters agreeing we respect the 2023 vote and provide doctor clarity (survey-based). | ≥65% agree/strongly agree in target suburbs | Monthly |
| 6 | Local Media Ratio | Ratio of earned local coverage about specific promises delivered vs national political topics. | ≥3:1 local-deliverables to national-noise | Monthly |
Risks & Mitigations
| # | Risk | Mitigation | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Over-indexing on technical detail loses attention or confuses voters. | Use plain talk, 1–2 promises per touch, and a simple receipt visual; validators translate to local context. | Comms Director |
| 2 | COVID-era baggage undercuts Acton-style competence frame. | Proactive guardrails (limits, sunsets), acknowledge harm, pivot to clinics/EMS and small-business pragmatism. | Policy Counsel |
| 3 | Regulatory constraints (PUCO/insurers/hospitals) stall fixed-cost promises. | Pre-clear legal pathways, start with high-control levers (billing transparency, rider sunsets), sequence tougher items. | Policy Lead |
| 4 | Ad deluge and nationalized attacks drown local message. | Cap TV share, shift to field + local radio, deploy validators, and run rapid-response with receipts, not rebuttals. | Comms + Field Ops |
| 5 | Manufacturing promises backfire if projects miss targets. | Publish clawbacks, stage-gate announcements, and show supplier/skills readiness before ribbon-cutting. | Econ Dev Manager |
| 6 | Abortion framing alienates rural persuadables if perceived as extreme. | Lead with respect-the-vote, doctor clarity, and maternal care support; avoid edge-case jousting. | Comms + Health Advisor |
Timeline
Weeks 3–6: Publish Fixed-Cost Relief Blueprint v1; kick off Suburban Persuasion Sprint; validators onboarded; first 40 no-camera events.
Weeks 7–12: Manufacturing Program pilots (2 projects) with scorecards; Abortion doctor-clarity brief live; County Health/EMS Floor policy + fiscal note ready.
Quarter 2+: Scale Ground Game OS statewide; refresh tests monthly; expand local media ratio; track receipts delivered; iterate based on KPIs.
Objective and context
Our qualitative program explored whether Ohio remains persuadable for Democrats in 2026, reactions to likely matchups (Acton vs. Ramaswamy for governor; Brown vs. Husted for Senate), how manufacturing and inflation shape daily life, and how the 2023 abortion amendment influences vote choice.
Key sentiment patterns
Across questions, voters describe Ohio as Republican-leaning but not locked. They see deep-red rural counties, blue urban cores (Cleveland/Columbus/Cincinnati), and “twitchy” suburbs that decide outcomes. Competitiveness hinges on retail, blue-collar messaging, ground game, and concrete pocketbook/public-safety deliverables-wages/pensions, crime/fentanyl response, roads/utilities, hospitals/VA. Skepticism is high toward Beltway “most important” hype and nationalized culture-war frames; voters reward plain talk and receipts.
Race readouts
- Governor (Acton vs. Ramaswamy): A narrow but consistent tilt to Amy Acton (9 of 10 leaned Acton) driven by a desire for “boring,” operational competence and local presence. Voters insist she acknowledge COVID-era baggage and set clear guardrails (no blanket mandates; transparent plans, accountable teams). Vivek Ramaswamy is widely seen as a flashy, national-stage culture warrior lacking nuts-and-bolts governance. Deciders: line-item plans, timelines/org charts, visible work on roads/broadband/clinics, and fentanyl/EMS execution.
- Senate (Brown vs. Husted): Mood is weary and cautious. Sherrod Brown retains pro-labor credibility (“gravel voice,” unions) but carries D.C. baggage in an R-tilt environment. Jon Husted is viewed as polished, pro-business, and structurally advantaged unless Brown runs disciplined, locally focused, pocketbook-first. What moves votes: cost relief on drugs/medical/utilities, jobs/apprenticeships, roads/rail safety (e.g., East Palestine concerns), VA/clinics, broadband-delivered with plain talk in small counties, not consultant TV wars.
Economy and manufacturing
Manufacturing is broadly treated as a campaign prop unless backed by enforceable terms. Trust rebuilds with: purchase orders to Ohio suppliers, three-year headcount floors and automatic clawbacks, in-state preferences, paid apprenticeships/night classes, and predictable basics (truck routes, rail, industrial power rates, permitting clocks). Voters prize off-camera, year-round presence (meeting second/third shift) as the authenticity test.
Inflation remains dominant, shifting from one-off grocery shocks to sticky, mandatory bills: insurance renewals, property taxes/escrow, utility riders/fees, plus auto costs (insurance, tires, parts) and health out-of-pocket. Uninsured voters face acute cash prices (urgent care, dental). Frustration centers on unpredictability and “mystery fees.”
Abortion as a trust test
Most report post-amendment efforts to chip away via administrative/legal/funding workarounds (hospital policies, clinic paperwork, zoning, budget riders), creating provider “chill.” The winning posture is “respect the 2023 vote” plus clear doctor guidance and practical maternal-health supports (keeping OB/ER open, prenatal care, childcare). For many, it’s a tie-breaker or disqualifier, not a single-issue driver.
Persona correlations
- Rural white blue-collar (28–62): Persuadable with enforceable manufacturing deals, apprenticeships, ODOT fixes, predictable energy, and visible shoe-leather.
- Urban/suburban pragmatics: Prioritize steady services-health costs, safety/fentanyl, utilities; favor calm competence and “respect the vote.”
- Older retirees (60+): Fixed-cost protection (pensions, insurance, taxes), local ER/OB access, measurable guarantees.
- Manufacturing/trades: Demand clawbacks, in-state POs, apprenticeship seats, and permitting/power predictability.
- Caregivers/shift workers: Win with concrete childcare/EMS availability aligned to nonstandard shifts and caps on copays.
Recommendations
- Lead with operational competence and receipts: Each promise carries a numeric target, deadline, public dashboard, and penalties/clawbacks.
- Fixed-cost relief package: Utility bill honesty (sunset riders, automatic outage credits), medical billing clarity (posted all-in prices, single 14-day bill, 0% 24-month plans, facility-fee limits), insurance rate-review with county dashboards, property-tax smoothing.
- Manufacturing credibility program: Standardize 3-year headcount floors + automatic clawbacks, in-state POs, paid OJT/night classes, and infrastructure/power/permitting clocks; publish deal scorecards.
- Ground game over air war: No-camera county visits (VFWs, fairs, union halls), tracked Q&A and validators; shift budget from TV to field/local radio.
- Abortion posture: Respect the amendment, stop end-runs, issue plain-language ER guidance, and fund maternal-care access (keep OB/ER units open).
Risks and guardrails
- Overly technical messaging: Use plain talk; one to two promises per touch; simple receipt visuals.
- COVID-era baggage (Acton frame): Proactive guardrails, acknowledge harm, pivot to clinics/EMS and small-business pragmatism.
- Regulatory bottlenecks: Start with high-control levers (billing transparency, rider sunsets) while pre-clearing tougher items.
- Ad deluge drowning local message: Cap TV; prioritize field, validators, and receipts-driven rapid response.
- Deal underperformance: Stage-gate announcements; publish clawbacks; show supplier/skills readiness first.
Next steps and measurement
- Weeks 0–2: Publish Plain Talk + Receipts kit; launch fixed-cost A/B tests; issue manufacturing deal checklist; stand up no-camera listening tour.
- Weeks 3–6: Release Fixed-Cost Relief v1 with dashboards; kick off suburban persuasion sprint; first 40 county stops with validators.
- Weeks 7–12: Pilot two manufacturing projects with scorecards; post ER/OB doctor-clarity brief; draft county health/EMS floor policy with fiscal note.
- KPIs: Receipts density (≥70% of messages with a dated, measurable local commitment); persuasion lift on fixed-cost frames (+4–6 pts among suburban/rural persuadables); field presence index (≥150 events/quarter, 1,500 attendees, 200 validators); manufacturing deal quality (≥80% with clawbacks, apprenticeship seats, in-state POs); abortion trust signal (≥65% agree we respect the 2023 vote and provide doctor clarity).
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How do you currently view each candidate on key leadership traits? Please rate Sherrod Brown, Jon Husted, Amy Acton, and Vivek Ramaswamy on: operational competence; trustworthiness; understands people like me; focuses on Ohio vs national politics; ideological moderation; likely to deliver results.semantic differential Pinpoints comparative positioning gaps so campaigns can focus contrasts on the traits that move persuadable voters.
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Which statewide issues will most influence your 2026 votes for Governor and U.S. Senate? Choose the most and least important across: cost of living; jobs/manufacturing; healthcare access/costs; public safety/fentanyl; K–12 quality; abortion/reproductive rights; immigration/border; infrastructure/roads/broadband; taxes/government efficiency; corruption/ethics.maxdiff Prioritizes issue salience to guide message weighting, creative, and field talking points.
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Which specific state-level actions to reduce recurring household costs would you prioritize? Indicate most and least persuasive: property-tax circuit breaker tied to income; insurance rate review with prior-approval; audit/roll back utility riders/fees; cap insulin/essential drug copays; ban medical facility fees/surprise bills; limit auto-insurance credit-score pricing; expand childcare subsidies/credits; rural transit or microtransit pilots.maxdiff Identifies the highest-yield fixed-cost relief planks to feature in policy rollouts and ads.
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Regarding manufacturing, which commitments would most convince you a candidate is serious (not just photo-ops)? Indicate most and least convincing: enforceable clawbacks with multi‑year job floors; Buy‑Ohio targets for state procurement; supplier working‑capital fund; industrial energy reliability/rate certainty plan; paid apprenticeships/OJT with employer match; site‑readiness and permitting deadlines; quarterly plant roundtables with public notes; in‑state PO commitments for state‑backed proje...maxdiff Clarifies which operational promises rebuild trust with manufacturing workers and suppliers.
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Which messengers would you trust most to validate a candidate’s claims about jobs, costs, and governance? Please rank your top five: local TV news; local newspaper; talk radio; union stewards; small business owners/chamber; clergy/faith leaders; nurses/doctors; teachers/school board; sheriffs/first responders; neighbors/community Facebook groups; YouTube/podcasts; campaign door‑knockers; direct mail; county officials.rank Optimizes messenger mix and media buys for credibility with swing voters.
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What pandemic‑preparedness and emergency‑powers guardrails, if any, would you want a future Ohio governor to commit to? Indicate most and least acceptable: automatic sunset of emergency powers unless legislature renews; transparent public metrics dashboard; defined school‑closure thresholds with local control; stockpiles and hospital surge capacity benchmarks; independent after‑action reviews; publish cost‑benefit before business restrictions; targeted relief for small businesses; clear criteria...maxdiff De‑risks COVID‑era baggage and defines acceptable commitments for persuadable voters.
Research group: n=10 registered Ohio voters (ages 28–62), largely rural with some suburban/urban from the Cleveland–Columbus–Cincinnati corridors; 70 responses across 7 questions.
What they said: Ohio is Republican-leaning but not locked; suburbs decide, shoe-leather matters, and voters are skeptical of Beltway “most important” hype. Races: Brown retains blue-collar credibility but carries D.C. baggage; Husted is polished, pro-business, and holds a default edge unless Brown runs a disciplined, local campaign.
For governor, respondents narrowly lean to Amy Acton for “boring competence” if she sets clear guardrails on mandates; Ramaswamy is seen as flashy/culture-war and light on operations.
Issues: Manufacturing talk is viewed as photo-op theater unless tied to clawbacks, in-state POs, and paid apprenticeships; inflation pain has shifted to fixed bills (insurance, utilities, taxes, medical); post-2023 abortion chipping is noticed and now functions as a trust test/tie-breaker. Main insights: Voters will reward concrete, measurable relief on fixed costs, enforceable manufacturing deals, and visible investments in roads/rail safety, clinics/EMS, and second-shift childcare-and they punish nationalized culture-war noise.
Takeaways: Run a competence-first, receipts-backed campaign; respect the 2023 abortion vote with clear doctor guidance; publish county-level dashboards and deadlines; focus message on utilities/insurance/medical billing and credible shop-floor wins; win twitchy suburbs while sweating small-county ground game.
| Name | Response | Info |
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