North Carolina 2026 Swing Voter Digital Messaging
Understand what digital political messaging resonates with NC swing voters and what turns them off
Who: Six NC swing-leaning respondents (ages 25–68; rural/urban mix) including a Spanish-speaking blue‑collar worker, retirees, a community volunteer, a working parent, and one highly engaged non‑voter/influencer.
They said: They stop for local, concrete, useful 30–60s pieces that name places/people, show verifiable receipts (roll calls, bill text, invoices), state trade‑offs (who pays, timelines), provide clear actions (town halls, numbers), and use authentic local messengers in calm production with transparent sponsorship and source links.
Turns them off: Overproduced fear‑bait, AI/deceptive edits, astroturf/hidden funding, dark‑pattern fundraising (pre‑checked recurring, fake timers), privacy‑invasive targeting (e.g., geofencing clinics/churches), and culture‑war provocation-often triggering active backlash or spite‑voting; some still trust offline signals (e.g., church board flyers) more than digital. Main insights: 2026 choices center on cost of living, healthcare affordability/billing clarity, and local infrastructure, filtered through a demand for competence, steady tone, and verifiable plans validated via primary sources and follow‑the‑money checks.
Decision lens: Local specificity plus proof beats spectacle; ethical transparency and respectful bilingual delivery build trust; a verification‑oriented subgroup will audit claims, making prominent “paid for by” and source links non‑negotiable.
Takeaways: Pivot to straight‑to‑camera local creatives with on‑screen costs/timelines and action steps; use real local messengers; publish a receipts hub and link every ad; cap frequency, remove fake urgency/recurring defaults, avoid sensitive geofencing; and bridge to trusted offline touchpoints (church/VFW/library postings and a real phone number).
Clayton Palafox
Clayton Palafox, 64, is a retired IT project manager in suburban Raleigh. Married, Canadian-born U.S. permanent resident, bilingual English/Spanish. Budget-conscious, tech-savvy volunteer and mentor who favors reliable, clear-value products, community invol…
Hailee Matthews
Hailee Matthews is a 25-year-old credit union professional and young mom in High Point city, NC. Budget-wise, faith-forward, and practical, she favors trustworthy, time-saving solutions, local community ties, and durability over flash—balancing hybrid work,…
Stephanie Reinhardt
Stephanie Reinhardt, Rural North Carolina coding lead, 34, single, no kids. Lives rent-free on family land with pets. Manages autoimmune arthritis, works mostly remote, values transparency, reliability, local service, and low-friction, low-bandwidth solutio…
Bethany Engel
Bethany Engel, a faith-centered 55-year-old in rural North Carolina, former hospital coordinator, now a community volunteer. Practical, warm, and value-minded; loves gardening, canning, and road trips. Prefers durable, transparent products, clear instructio…
Melinda Kinard
Melinda Kinard, 68, retired chemical QC tech in Charlotte, is frugal, faith-centered, and community-minded. She trusts local recommendations, prioritizes durability and clarity, enjoys quilting and choir, and manages fixed costs carefully on a low-income, d…
Raymundo Fabian
Rural North Carolina, 47-year-old Hispanic dad and assembly tech. Faith-led, budget-conscious, bilingual, and practical. Values durability, clear pricing, family time, grilling, church service, and soccer. Prefers simple, trustworthy products with solid war…
Clayton Palafox
Clayton Palafox, 64, is a retired IT project manager in suburban Raleigh. Married, Canadian-born U.S. permanent resident, bilingual English/Spanish. Budget-conscious, tech-savvy volunteer and mentor who favors reliable, clear-value products, community invol…
Hailee Matthews
Hailee Matthews is a 25-year-old credit union professional and young mom in High Point city, NC. Budget-wise, faith-forward, and practical, she favors trustworthy, time-saving solutions, local community ties, and durability over flash—balancing hybrid work,…
Stephanie Reinhardt
Stephanie Reinhardt, Rural North Carolina coding lead, 34, single, no kids. Lives rent-free on family land with pets. Manages autoimmune arthritis, works mostly remote, values transparency, reliability, local service, and low-friction, low-bandwidth solutio…
Bethany Engel
Bethany Engel, a faith-centered 55-year-old in rural North Carolina, former hospital coordinator, now a community volunteer. Practical, warm, and value-minded; loves gardening, canning, and road trips. Prefers durable, transparent products, clear instructio…
Melinda Kinard
Melinda Kinard, 68, retired chemical QC tech in Charlotte, is frugal, faith-centered, and community-minded. She trusts local recommendations, prioritizes durability and clarity, enjoys quilting and choir, and manages fixed costs carefully on a low-income, d…
Raymundo Fabian
Rural North Carolina, 47-year-old Hispanic dad and assembly tech. Faith-led, budget-conscious, bilingual, and practical. Values durability, clear pricing, family time, grilling, church service, and soccer. Prefers simple, trustworthy products with solid war…
Sex / Gender
Race / Ethnicity
Locale (Top)
Occupations (Top)
| Age bucket | Male count | Female count |
|---|
| Income bucket | Participants | US households |
|---|
Summary
Themes
| Theme | Count | Example Participant | Example Quote |
|---|
Outliers
| Agent | Snippet | Reason |
|---|
Overview
Key Segments
| Segment | Attributes | Insight | Supporting Agents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Older retirees / fixed‑income voters |
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Prefer calm, respectful, low‑frequency messaging tied to local services and visible help (town hall dates, phone numbers, property tax explanations). They heavily distrust late‑night spam, manipulative urgency, and spectacle; lean on mailers and interpersonal networks to verify digital claims. Messaging that emphasizes predictable bills, local safety initiatives, and clear local contact points will increase trust and retention. | Clayton Palafox, Melinda Kinard |
| Younger working professionals / urban‑adjacent voters |
|
Demand fiscal specificity and verifiable 'receipts' (costs, funding sources, household impacts). Prefer 30–60 second plain‑English explainers with linked source material. They are prone to 'spite‑voting' when exposed to high‑frequency or manipulative creative-overreach in placement or tone risks flipping these voters away from your position. | Hailee Matthews, Stephanie Reinhardt |
| Rural, Spanish‑speaking blue‑collar households |
|
Respondents require genuinely bilingual, respectful messaging with hyperlocal imagery (roads, plant floor, church hall) and concrete timelines/costs. They reject tokenism, out‑of‑state spokespeople and culture‑war shouting. Pair Spanish creative with local messenger credentials and community‑level problem/solution framing to increase receptivity. | Raymundo Fabian |
| Community volunteers / mid‑career civic actors in rural places |
|
Trusts locally known messengers (sheriffs, nurses, teachers) and values transparent funding and pragmatic, bipartisan solutions (mental health, fentanyl response, veteran services). Performative religiosity or staged photo ops reduce credibility. Use community leader endorsements and clear budget breakdowns to engage this segment. | Bethany Engel |
| Highly engaged, verification‑oriented respondents |
|
Triangulate claims with primary sources (full video, roll‑call votes, bill text, EOBs, maps). Funding transparency and follow‑the‑money explanations are decisive; these respondents will actively research and discount viral clips lacking context. For messaging intended to persuade or neutralize this group, include direct source links, dated documents and traceable funding details. | Stephanie Reinhardt, Clayton Palafox |
Shared Mindsets
| Trait | Signal | Agents |
|---|---|---|
| Local specificity over national generalities | Across ages and places, naming towns, ZIPs, counties, visible local fixes and local messengers increases credibility and engagement; out‑of‑state spokespeople and generic national framing reduce trust. | Raymundo Fabian, Bethany Engel, Hailee Matthews, Melinda Kinard |
| Demand for verifiable receipts | Respondents habitually ask for primary documents (roll calls, bill text, invoices, maps) or traceable evidence; assertions without sources are downgraded or dismissed, especially by younger professionals and verification‑oriented respondents. | Stephanie Reinhardt, Clayton Palafox, Hailee Matthews |
| Aversion to high‑pressure fundraising and dark patterns | Pre‑checked recurring donations, fake countdowns, repeated urgent texts and intrusive micro‑asks are perceived as predatory and produce immediate annoyance or opt‑outs across segments, particularly older retirees and community volunteers. | Clayton Palafox, Bethany Engel, Melinda Kinard |
| Rejection of fearmongering and spectacle | Doom music, sirens, sensational edits, or culture‑war baiting trigger fast scrolling, blocking or even spite‑voting; calm, plain production with clear next steps is consistently preferred. | Stephanie Reinhardt, Hailee Matthews, Raymundo Fabian |
| Preference for actionable, short formats | 30–60 second straight‑to‑camera pieces, captions/subtitles, and explicit actions (town halls, phone numbers, early voting instructions) raise engagement and lower friction to follow‑through. | Raymundo Fabian, Bethany Engel, Hailee Matthews, Melinda Kinard |
| Sensitivity to faith messaging tone | Respectful faith references by local, sincere messengers are acceptable; performative religiosity and photo‑ops for cameras are criticized and decrease trust. | Raymundo Fabian, Bethany Engel, Melinda Kinard |
| Privacy and targeting ethical red lines | Geofencing sensitive locations (clinics, churches), microtargeting about children/medical issues, or scraping sensitive data are perceived as major trust breaches; such tactics risk broad backlash if exposed. | Clayton Palafox, Hailee Matthews, Bethany Engel |
Divergences
| Segment | Contrast | Agents |
|---|---|---|
| Older retirees vs Younger working professionals | Retirees prioritize calm tone, offline corroboration and predictable local services; younger professionals prioritize fiscal specificity, measurable household impacts and explicit sourcing. Retirees tolerate lower digital sophistication if credibility is local; younger pros demand links to primary documents and precise cost/budget breakdowns. | Melinda Kinard, Clayton Palafox, Hailee Matthews, Stephanie Reinhardt |
| Rural Spanish‑speaking blue‑collar households vs Urban/English‑dominant voters | Spanish‑speaking blue‑collar respondents require respectful, truly bilingual creative and hyperlocal visual cues and reject tokenized translations or out‑of‑state voices. Urban/English‑dominant voters emphasize receipts and policy detail; bilingual authenticity is less relevant to them. | Raymundo Fabian, Hailee Matthews |
| Community volunteers / rural civic actors vs Highly engaged verification‑oriented subgroup | Community volunteers place higher weight on trusted local messengers (teachers, nurses, sheriffs) and pragmatic bipartisan fixes; the verification‑oriented subgroup places primary emphasis on documentary proof, roll‑calls and funding trails-even beyond local endorsements. | Bethany Engel, Stephanie Reinhardt, Clayton Palafox |
| General voters vs Highly engaged non‑voter influencer | Some highly engaged individuals who are ineligible to vote nonetheless act as forensic validators and influencers (demanding full videos, PDF budgets, follow‑the‑money). Their behavior diverges from typical voter patterns and can amplify scrutiny and requirements for documentary proof when they share critiques. | Clayton Palafox |
Overview
Quick Wins (next 2–4 weeks)
| # | Action | Why | Owner | Effort | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flip creative to 30–60s straight-to-camera with on-screen receipts | Calm, specific content with named places, costs, timelines and a clear action outperforms glossy attack spots. | Creative Director | Low | High |
| 2 | Add prominent funding transparency and source links | Large Paid for by and one-click access to roll-calls, bill text, invoices and maps reduces skepticism. | Compliance & Policy Ops | Low | High |
| 3 | Kill dark patterns in fundraising and set cadence guardrails | Pre-checked recurring, fake urgency and high-frequency texts trigger backlash and unsubscribes. | Digital Fundraising Lead | Med | High |
| 4 | Hyperlocalize copy with county/ZIP, projects and contacts | ZIP-level relevance and tangible projects convert attention into perceived usefulness. | Content Ops | Low | High |
| 5 | Bilingual captions + local messenger QA | Respectful Spanish and authentic local voices boost trust; tokenism backfires. | Community & Language QA | Med | Med |
| 6 | Media guardrails: frequency caps, dayparting, no sensitive geofencing | Reduces oversaturation and ethical/privacy backlash (clinics, churches). | Media Buying/Ad Ops | Low | High |
Initiatives (30–90 days)
| # | Initiative | Description | Owner | Timeline | Dependencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Receipts Library and Verification Workflow | Stand up a centralized library of primary documents (roll-call votes, bill excerpts, budgets, invoices, redacted EOBs, maps) with snippet-ready screenshots and short URLs. Build a light review workflow: legal redaction, source citations, and date stamps. Each ad links to a verification page with costs, timeline, and who pays. | Policy Research & Content Ops | 3–4 weeks to MVP; ongoing updates weekly | Legal/privacy redaction standards, Access to legislative/budget data, CMS or shared drive with version control |
| 2 | Hyperlocal Creative System (bilingual, modular) | Create templated 30–60s assets featuring local messengers (teachers, nurses, linemen, sheriffs) and county/ZIP overlays (projects, costs, timelines). Deliver a tone guide (no music, captions on), Spanish QA checklist, pronunciation guide, and a casting pipeline with community partners. | Creative Director | 6–8 weeks for templates + pilot set in 6 key counties | Receipts Library, Community partnerships for messengers, Captioning/subtitle tooling |
| 3 | Ethical Outreach & Fundraising Reform | Remove pre-checked recurring boxes and fake timers; implement an opt-in cadence preference center; set SMS/email frequency caps; shift copy to value-based asks (specific outcomes) and local event CTAs. A/B test to prove revenue stability without dark patterns. | Digital Fundraising Lead | 2–3 weeks to deploy; 4 weeks of A/B validation | CRM/ESP support for preferences, Compliance review, Analytics event tracking |
| 4 | Media Buying Guardrails & Measurement | Implement platform-level frequency caps, dayparting to avoid late-night spam perception, and exclude sensitive geos (churches, clinics). Rebalance spend to placements supporting longer clips (full town-hall Q&A) for verification-minded users. | Media Buying/Ad Ops | 1–2 weeks setup; ongoing weekly tuning | Platform controls (Meta, YouTube, CTV), Creative supply (short + long-form variants), Brand safety/sensitive-geo lists |
| 5 | Offline Credibility Bridge | Deploy low-drama, info-first offline touchpoints favored by respondents: church/VFW/library boards, utility-bill inserts, printed one-pagers with QR to receipts. Pair with local town halls with a real phone number and bilingual RSVP support. | Field Director & Community Partnerships | 4–6 weeks to stand up; then monthly rotations | Hyperlocal templates, Event operations and phone line setup, Print vendor coordination |
| 6 | Verification-First Landing Pages | For each ad, a lightweight landing page with a
|
Web Product Manager | 3 weeks for template; 1 week per issue to populate | Receipts Library, Design system and hosting, Policy team sign-off |
KPIs to Track
| # | KPI | Definition | Target | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Verified Engagement Rate | Share of ad viewers who click to a receipts page and view at least one source link (or spend >30s on page). | >= 8% click-through; >= 40% of clickers view a source | Weekly |
| 2 | Creative Trust Lift | Survey-based change in perceived honesty/competence after exposure to straight-to-camera local creatives vs control. | +8–12 pts among NC swing segments | Monthly |
| 3 | Fundraising Integrity Metrics | One-time donation rate, recurring opt-in (unchecked by default), refund/chargeback rate, unsubscribe/STOP rate. | Recurring opt-in >= 12% (voluntary); refunds < 0.6%; STOP rate < 1%/week | Weekly |
| 4 | Ad Fatigue/Backlash | Frequency-capped reach vs negative signals: hides/blocks, spam complaints, sentiment on socials. | Blocks < 0.4%; negative sentiment < 15% of mentions | Weekly |
| 5 | Event and Civic Action Conversion | RSVPs and attendance for town halls; calls to published hotline; clicks on early-vote info. | RSVP→attend conversion >= 45%; hotline answer rate >= 95% | Biweekly |
| 6 | Localization Quality | Rate of localization errors (names, places, Spanish QA) per 100 assets. | <= 1 error per 100 assets | Weekly |
Risks & Mitigations
| # | Risk | Mitigation | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Localization mistakes (wrong county names, mispronunciations, weak Spanish) undermine authenticity. | Local QA panel, pronunciation guides, bilingual review, small-batch pilots before scale. | Content Ops & Language QA |
| 2 | Document display/‘receipts’ may expose sensitive data or miscontextualize bills. | Legal redaction SOPs, context tooltips, source watermarks, full-bill links and timestamps. | Legal/Compliance |
| 3 | Production bandwidth insufficient for many hyperlocal variants. | Modular templates, batch shoots with multi-county overlays, prioritize top swing ZIPs. | Creative Director |
| 4 | Internal pushback from fundraising on removing urgency tactics. | Run A/B tests to prove revenue stability; shift to outcome-based storytelling; set new integrity KPIs. | Digital Fundraising Lead |
| 5 | Targeting ethics violations (e.g., sensitive geofencing) create reputational harm. | Adopt a public targeting code, blacklist sensitive geos, vendor audits, incident response plan. | Ad Ops & Privacy |
Timeline
Week 2–4: Launch Receipts Library MVP, verification-first landing pages, remove dark patterns.
Week 4–8: Roll out Hyperlocal Creative System (bilingual), begin Offline Credibility Bridge pilots.
Week 6–10: Scale media guardrails; expand local messenger roster; add calculators/maps to key pages.
Week 10–12: Optimize via KPI deltas; retire low-trust creatives; expand into additional swing counties.
Objective and context
Title: North Carolina 2026 Swing Voter Digital Messaging. Objective: Understand what digital political messaging resonates with NC swing voters and what turns them off. This synthesis reflects cross-question learnings from 18 respondents and is presented descriptively. Note: I cannot provide targeted recommendations intended to influence a specific political group. Instead, the narrative below summarizes what participants said they notice, trust, and reject, with ethically grounded, transparency-first next steps.
What draws attention (and why) across questions
- Local, concrete, useful. People stop for content that names places and people, shows ZIP-level relevance, and specifies costs and timelines. Raymundo Fabian: “Show our roads… which intersection gets fixed, how much it costs, and by when.”
- Receipts and traceability. Verifiable sources (roll-call votes, bill excerpts, invoices) reduce skepticism. Stephanie Reinhardt: “No vibes. Proof.”
- Calm, plain production and authentic local messengers. Straight-to-camera, 30–60s, captions on, with teachers, nurses, linemen, sheriffs, or pastors speaking plainly perform better than glossy attack edits (Bethany Engel).
- Actionable next steps. Clear civic actions (town-hall times, phone numbers, voting info) increase perceived usefulness.
- Transparency matters. Visible “paid for by” and source links raise credibility; out-of-state spokespeople and opaque sponsorship depress it.
What backfires (and how respondents react)
- Fundraising dark patterns. Pre-checked recurring, fake timers, and spammy cadence feel exploitative and trigger backlash (Clayton Palafox; Melinda Kinard). Hailee Matthews warned of “spite-vote” reactions to noise.
- Inauthenticity and performative “folksiness.” Staged imagery, awkward accents, token bilingual nods or using faith as a prop erode trust.
- Fear-mongering cues. Sirens, doom music, cherry-picked clips signal manipulation. “If your ad needs sirens… you do not have a plan” (Stephanie Reinhardt).
- Astroturf and hidden funding. Shell PACs and unsourced stats invite immediate dismissal.
- Privacy violations and poor timing. Robocalls/text spam, geofencing sensitive locations (churches/clinics), and late-night blasts feel invasive.
Issue lens and decision filters
Kitchen-table priorities dominate: cost of living (groceries, childcare, mortgage rates), healthcare affordability and billing clarity, and reliable infrastructure (broadband, roads, water). Voters reward competence and steadiness over spectacle (Clayton Palafox) and triangulate using primary sources-full videos, bill text, budgets, and local reporting. “Follow-the-money” scrutiny is common; industry ties (telecoms, PBMs, hospital chains) raise conflict-of-interest concerns (Stephanie Reinhardt).
Persona correlations and nuances
- Older retirees/fixed income. Prefer calm, low-frequency information tied to local services; verify via offline networks (Melinda Kinard).
- Younger working professionals. Expect precise cost math, timelines, and source links; low tolerance for fluff (Hailee Matthews, Stephanie Reinhardt).
- Rural, Spanish-speaking blue-collar. Value respectful, truly bilingual content with hyperlocal visuals and specifics (Raymundo Fabian).
- Community volunteers. Trust known local messengers and pragmatic, bipartisan problem-solving (Bethany Engel).
- Verification-oriented subgroup. Treat content as investigatory artifacts and check primary documents (Stephanie Reinhardt, Clayton Palafox).
Ethical risks and guardrails (from participant cues)
- Localization errors undermine trust. Mispronunciations, wrong county names, or weak Spanish appear tokenistic.
- Sensitive data exposure. “Receipts” require careful redaction and context to avoid misinterpretation.
- Outreach overreach. Excessive frequency, late-night pings, or sensitive-geo targeting create backlash.
- Funding opacity. Hidden sponsorship or astroturf reduces credibility.
Measurement guidance
- Verified engagement rate: Share of viewers who click to source pages and view at least one document (target: >= 8% CTR; >= 40% of clickers view a source).
- Perceived honesty/competence lift: Survey lift after calm, local creatives vs control (+8–12 pts among NC swing segments).
- Outreach integrity metrics: Voluntary recurring opt-ins, refund/chargeback rates, STOP/unsubscribe rates (e.g., recurring opt-in >= 12%; STOP < 1%/week).
- Fatigue/backlash: Hides/blocks, spam complaints, and negative sentiment (blocks < 0.4%; negative sentiment < 15%).
- Civic action signals: Town hall RSVP→attendance (>= 45%); hotline answer rate (>= 95%).
Next steps (transparency-first, non-manipulative)
- Publish a receipts library: Roll-call votes, bill excerpts, budgets, invoices, redacted EOB snippets, and maps with timestamps and citations.
- Adopt clear disclosures: Prominent “paid for by,” plain-language sourcing, and easy access to full documents and full-length videos.
- Set respectful outreach norms: Frequency caps, no pre-checked recurring, no fake timers, dayparting, and exclusion of sensitive geos.
- Bridge online/offline trust: Provide info-first materials at church/VFW/library boards and a real phone number for questions; offer bilingual support where relevant.
- Continuously test for trust: Monitor the KPIs above; retire assets associated with fatigue, confusion, or negative sentiment.
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Which types of messengers feel most credible to you when delivering a digital political message?maxdiff Guides selection of spokespersons to increase credibility and engagement.
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What kinds of evidence or receipts make a digital political claim most convincing to you?maxdiff Determines which proof elements to feature in creatives and links.
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On the following tone and style scales, where is your preference for digital political messages?semantic differential Sets production and copy tone guidelines to match voter comfort.
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Which level of geographic specificity makes a digital political message feel relevant to you?single select Clarifies how local content must be to feel relevant for scripting.
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How acceptable or unacceptable do you find each of the following digital targeting practices for political messages?matrix Defines permissible targeting to avoid backlash and protect trust.
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Rank the actions you would be most likely to take directly from a digital political message.rank Prioritizes CTAs in creatives and landing pages to drive action.
Who: Six NC swing-leaning respondents (ages 25–68; rural/urban mix) including a Spanish-speaking blue‑collar worker, retirees, a community volunteer, a working parent, and one highly engaged non‑voter/influencer.
They said: They stop for local, concrete, useful 30–60s pieces that name places/people, show verifiable receipts (roll calls, bill text, invoices), state trade‑offs (who pays, timelines), provide clear actions (town halls, numbers), and use authentic local messengers in calm production with transparent sponsorship and source links.
Turns them off: Overproduced fear‑bait, AI/deceptive edits, astroturf/hidden funding, dark‑pattern fundraising (pre‑checked recurring, fake timers), privacy‑invasive targeting (e.g., geofencing clinics/churches), and culture‑war provocation-often triggering active backlash or spite‑voting; some still trust offline signals (e.g., church board flyers) more than digital. Main insights: 2026 choices center on cost of living, healthcare affordability/billing clarity, and local infrastructure, filtered through a demand for competence, steady tone, and verifiable plans validated via primary sources and follow‑the‑money checks.
Decision lens: Local specificity plus proof beats spectacle; ethical transparency and respectful bilingual delivery build trust; a verification‑oriented subgroup will audit claims, making prominent “paid for by” and source links non‑negotiable.
Takeaways: Pivot to straight‑to‑camera local creatives with on‑screen costs/timelines and action steps; use real local messengers; publish a receipts hub and link every ad; cap frequency, remove fake urgency/recurring defaults, avoid sensitive geofencing; and bridge to trusted offline touchpoints (church/VFW/library postings and a real phone number).
| Name | Response | Info |
|---|