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GOP Primary Voter Priorities 2026

Understand Republican primary voter attitudes toward fiscal conservatism, candidate endorsements, and economic policy

Study Overview Updated Jan 14, 2026

Research question: How GOP primary voters weigh fiscal conservatism versus loyalty to Trump, whether a Club for Growth endorsement matters, and which economic issues should drive 2026 priorities. Research group: n=6 Republican primary voters (ages 37–50) across FL, NY, NC, and MN, spanning manufacturing, construction, healthcare, and one unemployed parent. What they said: Trump loyalty is the decisive primary cue; fiscal records are respected but function mainly as governance/donor credibility, not as nomination-makers. The Club for Growth endorsement has low salience (roughly 2–3/10) and only helps as a tie-breaker when paired with line-item math and explicit protections for core services.

Main insights: Voters report a household squeeze-healthcare premiums/deductibles, energy/power bills, groceries, and housing/insurance (especially FL property insurance)-and reward receipts, not slogans: plain-English budgets, monthly-dollar impacts, and proven local delivery. Takeaways: Sequence for viability-front-load visible Trump-alignment to clear the primary gate, then pivot to a concrete fiscal plan with guardrails and local proof for donors and the general. Treat Club for Growth as additive only; it moves votes when-and only when-backed by a line-item budget that protects essential services. Prioritize policies that cut out-of-pocket healthcare costs, stabilize energy and property insurance, streamline permitting/infrastructure, expand apprenticeships, and use targeted trade enforcement-and always communicate expected monthly savings and timelines.

Participant Snapshots

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6 profiles

Omar Murphy

Omar Murphy is a Jamaican-born surgical technologist in Broken Arrow, 39, single renter, motorcycle commuter. Night-shift routine, church-involved, supports family abroad. Practical, budget-conscious, soccer and cooking enthusiast who values reliability, cl…

Jerald Perezcruz

Rafael, a 50-year-old Dominican-born NYC construction foreman, is Spanish-first, faith-centered, generous, and disciplined. High earnings via overtime, uninsured, and practical. He values reliability, transparency, and community, and dislikes hidden fees an…

Randy Pena

41-year-old Hispanic production supervisor in Palm Coast city, FL. Married, no children. Spanish at home. Practical buyer focused on safety, durability, and ROI. Commutes by motorcycle. Values family stability, clear data, and low-friction services.

Billy Smith

Billy Smith is a disabled former line cook in Duluth with zero household income, married, faith centered, and frugal. Pragmatic decision maker using cost, durability, and accessibility heuristics. Values community support, simple tech, and low friction serv…

Joseph Bertelsman

Raleigh-based aircraft production shift lead, 37, married with two kids. Practical, Catholic, and family-first. Rides a motorcycle, smokes brisket, budgets carefully, and buys durable, time-saving gear. Moderately independent politically; values safety, rel…

Erica Gutierrez

Marisol Alvarez, 43, Spanish-first mom in rural Georgia. Married with one child, uninsured, frugal, community-anchored. Pragmatic buyer favoring clear savings, no contracts, and Spanish support; cautious of hidden fees, credit checks, and complex products.

Omar Murphy

Jerald Perezcruz

Randy Pena

Billy Smith

Joseph Bertelsman

Erica Gutierrez

Overview 0 participants

Sex / Gender

Race / Ethnicity

Locale (Top)

Occupations (Top)

Demographic Overview No agents selected

Age bucket	Male count	Female count

Participant locations No agents selected

Participant Incomes US benchmark scaled to group size

Income bucket	Participants	US households

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 ACS 1-year (Table B19001; >$200k evenly distributed for comparison)

Media Ingestion

Connections appear when personas follow many of the same sources, highlighting overlapping media diets.

Questions and Responses

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3 questions

Response Summaries

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3 questions

Word Cloud

Persona Correlations

Overview

Respondents converge on a two-track attitude: demonstrable loyalty to Trump is the dominant primary cue, while traditional fiscal-conservatism (balanced budgets, tax rhetoric) functions mainly as a governance/donor credential rather than the decisive nomination driver. Endorsements from donor/PAC outfits (e.g., Club for Growth) generally carry low direct influence unless tied to local, tangible proof (line-item budgets, protections for services). Household-facing economic anxieties - healthcare costs, utilities/energy bills, groceries, and region-specific insurance exposures - shape priorities across demographics. Occupational and income contexts predict how voters translate fiscal language into expectations: lower-income and caregiving respondents demand immediate relief and safety-net speed; transit-dependent urban respondents prioritize reliable public services; manufacturing and plant managers focus on stable inputs, permitting, and workforce pipelines; frontline healthcare workers center hospital funding and staffing impacts. Across groups there is a strong demand for plain-English budgets, explicit monthly-dollar impacts, and concrete local guardrails before accepting abstract fiscal promises.

Total responses: 18

Key Segments

Segment	Attributes	Insight	Supporting Agents
Lower-income / safety-net-dependent	Age ~39 Income bracket: $0–74k Status: unemployed, stay-at-home parent, or relying on benefits Locale: rural or small city	Prioritize immediate household shock protection (heat, food, emergency medical costs) and rapid access to safety-net programs; view fiscal policy through a survival lens and prefer direct relief or program speed over ideological purity.	Billy Smith, Erica Gutierrez
Transit-reliant urban middle/upper earners	Age 37–50 Income: higher bracket (~$150k+) Occupation: construction/commercial management Locale: large cities (e.g., New York, Raleigh)	Value predictable, well-funded public services (transit, inspections) and transparent budgets; skeptical of endorsements or abstract fiscal rhetoric unless candidates can show local operational results.	Jerald Perezcruz, Joseph Bertelsman
Manufacturing / Plant management	Age ~37–41 Occupation: plant manager, manufacturing engineer Locale: suburban/coastal (NC, FL) Primary concerns: supply-chain inputs, tariffs, permitting, apprenticeship pipeline	Treat fiscal conservatism as meaningful only insofar as it secures stable inputs, faster permitting, and workforce development that protect local operations and paychecks; prefer targeted trade enforcement rather than broad tariffs.	Randy Pena, Joseph Bertelsman
Frontline healthcare / hospital-adjacent	Age ~39 Occupation: medical assistant, healthcare IT Focus: hospital budgets, staffing, insurance premiums	Place hospital funding, staffing pipelines, and reduction of out-of-pocket healthcare costs at the top of economic priorities and are wary of tax-cut framing that could translate into higher fees or reduced service capacity.	Omar Murphy
Hispanic / Latino voters (cross-income)	Ethnicity: Hispanic/Latino Mixed locales: rural GA, FL, NYC Roles: stay-at-home parent, plant manager, construction manager	Consistently ask for concrete fiscal outcomes (monthly-dollar impacts, protections for schools/clinics) and are skeptical of abstract 'lower taxes' promises; responsive to plain-English explanations of how policy affects household budgets.	Erica Gutierrez, Randy Pena, Jerald Perezcruz

Shared Mindsets

Trait	Signal	Agents
Primary cue: Trump loyalty	For primary voters in this sample, early and explicit loyalty to Trump is the strongest nomination signal; perceived loyalty often outweighs fiscal track record when deciding primary viability.	Billy Smith, Joseph Bertelsman, Omar Murphy, Randy Pena, Jerald Perezcruz, Erica Gutierrez
Low endorsement impact unless tied to proof	Donor and PAC endorsements (e.g., Club for Growth) register as low-influence shorthand; their persuasive power increases only when paired with local, verifiable budget outcomes or service protections.	Randy Pena, Erica Gutierrez, Billy Smith, Omar Murphy, Jerald Perezcruz, Joseph Bertelsman
Demand for transparency and concrete impacts	Across demographics there is a uniform demand for line-item plans, plain-English explanations, and explicit monthly-dollar effects before accepting fiscal or tax-cut claims.	Jerald Perezcruz, Joseph Bertelsman, Erica Gutierrez, Billy Smith, Omar Murphy, Randy Pena
Household economic anxieties dominate	Top-cited household concerns - healthcare costs, utility/power bills, groceries, and region-specific insurance exposures - shape receptivity to economic messaging and elevate demand for immediate relief measures.	Omar Murphy, Billy Smith, Erica Gutierrez, Randy Pena, Joseph Bertelsman, Jerald Perezcruz
Preference for pragmatic local solutions	Voters favor measurable local pilots, permitting fixes, trades/apprenticeship programs, and anti-'junk-fee' rules over national slogans or culture-war performance.	Joseph Bertelsman, Randy Pena, Erica Gutierrez, Jerald Perezcruz, Omar Murphy, Billy Smith

Divergences

Segment	Contrast	Agents
Fiscal-first primary voter	Unlike the dominant sample preference for Trump loyalty as the decisive primary cue, this respondent prioritizes a candidate's fiscal record and demonstrated monthly savings for households over front-loaded loyalty signals.	Erica Gutierrez
Higher-income manufacturing pragmatist	Gives slightly more weight to donor endorsements as an operational signifier and uses technical, operational metaphors to assess fiscal credibility, differing stylistically and numerically from most peers who downplay endorsements.	Joseph Bertelsman
Frontline healthcare non-voter/advocate	Focuses on hospital operations and workforce impacts of fiscal choices but is not an active primary voter; treats endorsements more as signaling for policy impact than an electoral cue.	Omar Murphy
Acute crisis respondent	Experiencing immediate household crisis and intensive reliance on safety nets; priorities skew toward survival-level needs (heat, food, SSDI speed) more sharply than the broader sample.	Billy Smith

Recommendations & Next Steps

Overview

Descriptive findings from the study: loyalty to Trump is the strongest primary cue; fiscal conservatism is valued for governing credibility and donors but is rarely decisive in nominations. Club for Growth endorsement has low direct salience unless paired with concrete, local proof. Voters are squeezed by healthcare, utilities/energy, groceries, housing/insurance and demand receipts, not vibes: clear line-item budgets, monthly-dollar impacts, and protected core services. For Claude (API test page context), priority is to ship lightweight, neutral research and product artifacts that quantify household impacts, standardize transparency, and enable partners to reference evidence without partisan framing.

Quick Wins (next 2–4 weeks)

#	Action	Why	Owner	Effort	Impact
1	Publish 'Receipts' One-Pager Template (v1)	Respondents want line-item budgets, monthly-dollar impacts, and core-service guardrails before trusting fiscal claims.	Policy Ops + Comms	Low	High
2	Household Cost Calculator (beta)	Addresses top anxieties (premiums, power bills, groceries, insurance) with plain-English outputs per month.	Product/Eng	Med	High
3	Regional Brief: Florida Property Insurance + Mitigation	High-salience regional issue; fast brief with expected premium deltas from reinsurance/mitigation policies.	Research	Low	Med
4	Endorsement Signal Tracker	Quantifies that Club for Growth endorsement is a tie-breaker at best and contextualizes against local proof.	Data/Analytics	Low	Med
5	Plain-English Style Guide	Standardizes no-jargon summaries, monthly impacts, and explicit tradeoff disclosures.	Comms	Low	Med
6	Participant Advisory Panel (6–10 members)	Rapid feedback loop on 'receipts' outputs to ensure clarity and trust.	Research/UX	Med	Med

Initiatives (30–90 days)

#	Initiative	Description	Owner	Timeline	Dependencies
1	Household Affordability Dashboard	Integrate data on health premiums/deductibles, energy rates, grocery indices, and property insurance to show monthly impact by region; export embeddable charts via API.	Product/Eng + Data	90 days to v1	Data partnerships (utilities, insurers, public datasets), Security/compliance review, Content design for plain-English labels
2	Local Proof Catalogue	Curate measurable pilots (e.g., grid hardening, mitigation grants, surprise-billing enforcement) with $/household impact, timelines, and success criteria.	Research	120 days to initial 8–10 case studies	Municipal/state partner access, Standardized evidence rubric, Legal approvals for data use
3	Budget Transparency Standard	Define a reusable schema for policy one-pagers: Line items Who pays/benefits Monthly impact Guardrails on core services Tradeoffs and timing Provide JSON + PDF outputs.	Policy Ops	60 days	SME review (healthcare, energy, insurance), Comms style guide alignment
4	Segment Lens Reports (neutral)	Briefs for key mindsets (safety-net reliant, transit-reliant urban, manufacturing, frontline healthcare) showing what evidence each segment requests (not messaging advice).	Research	75 days for 4 reports	Panel expansion, IRB/ethics check, Qual-to-quant validation plan
5	Endorsement vs Outcomes Study	Quantify perceived weight of endorsements relative to local receipts using conjoint/experiment; publish neutral implications for evidence standards.	Data/Analytics + Research	90 days	Sample procurement, Experiment design, Methodology transparency review

KPIs to Track

#	KPI	Definition	Target	Frequency
1	Receipts Coverage Rate	Share of published briefs/tools that include line items, monthly-dollar impacts, and guardrails.	>= 90% by end of Q3	Monthly
2	Calculator Engagement	Median session duration and completion rate for Household Cost Calculator.	>= 2.5 minutes; >= 40% completion	Weekly
3	Regional Brief Adoption	Number of partner orgs or media pieces citing Claude briefs/dashboards.	>= 15 citations by Q4	Quarterly
4	Data Freshness	Average days since last update across price/cost series.	< 14 days rolling average	Weekly
5	Participant Trust Score	Advisory panel rating (1–5) on clarity, neutrality, and usefulness of outputs.	>= 4.3/5	Quarterly
6	Methodology Transparency Index	Percent of outputs with public methods, sources, and known limitations.	100%	Monthly

Risks & Mitigations

#	Risk	Mitigation	Owner
1	Outputs perceived as partisan or prescriptive in primaries.	Use neutral language, publish methods/assumptions, avoid voter-targeting or prescriptive campaign advice.	Comms + Legal/Compliance
2	Data gaps or stale inputs (e.g., premiums, local rates).	Triangulate multiple sources, automate updates, display data age badges.	Data/Analytics
3	Privacy/PII risk from calculators and feedback loops.	No PII collection by default, aggregate-only analytics, security review before launch.	Security/Eng
4	Overgeneralizing from a small qualitative sample.	Run follow-on quant (n>=1,000), replicate regionally, mark findings with confidence bands.	Research
5	Partner dependency delays for local proof cases.	Parallel-track 2–3 regions, maintain an alternate dataset plan, timebox MOUs.	Partnerships

Timeline

0–30 days: Ship 'Receipts' template, Plain-English guide, Endorsement Signal Tracker; begin FL insurance brief and calculator prototype.

31–60 days: Finalize Budget Transparency Standard, launch Calculator (beta), publish 2 regional briefs, recruit advisory panel.

61–90 days: Release Affordability Dashboard v1, publish 4 Segment Lens Reports, complete Endorsement vs Outcomes Study, add 6–8 Local Proof Catalogue entries.

Research Study Narrative

Study Objective and Context

Objective: Understand Republican primary voter attitudes toward fiscal conservatism, candidate endorsements, and economic policy. This synthesis integrates three question areas across a small, qualitative sample. Findings are directional; we note consistent patterns but recommend follow-on quant for validation.

Cross-Question Learnings (Grounded in Evidence)

Primary cue: loyalty to Trump. Across respondents, visible alignment with Trump is the strongest nomination signal. As Billy Smith put it, “loyalty to Trump wins a GOP primary right now… like a team jersey.” Fiscal bona fides rarely decide primaries even if they matter later.
Fiscal conservatism: governance and donor credential. Voters see balanced budgets and spending discipline as crucial for governing competence and general-election credibility, not as the decisive primary filter. Jerald Perezcruz: “To govern like an adult: an honest fiscal record.” A minority (e.g., Erica Gutierrez) personally prioritize budgets over loyalty.
Club for Growth endorsement: low direct salience. Most rate it minimal (“2 out of 10,” Randy Pena), useful only as a tie-breaker when paired with line-item plans, real numbers, and core-service guardrails. Erica Gutierrez cites past “lower taxes” rhetoric that yielded higher trash fees and larger classes, underscoring distrust of donor/PAC stamps without local proof.
Household squeeze dominates economic priorities. Top anxieties are healthcare costs (“premiums, deductibles, meds… that’s the fire,” Omar Murphy), utilities/energy, groceries, and region-specific insurance pressures (Florida property insurance: “One storm and everyone pays for years,” Randy Pena). Respondents want receipts, not vibes: plain-English budgets, monthly-dollar impacts, and timelines.
Preference for pragmatic, local fixes. High receptivity to measurable policies: surprise-bill protections, predictable energy bills and grid resilience, targeted property insurance/reinsurance strategies, streamlined permitting plus infrastructure upkeep, apprenticeships/trades, anti–junk-fee rules, and surgical (not blanket) trade enforcement.

Persona Correlations and Nuances

Lower-income/safety-net reliant: Survival lens; prioritize heat, food, emergency medical access and fast benefits. Strong insistence on protecting schools/clinics (Billy Smith; Erica Gutierrez).
Transit-reliant urban professionals: Seek reliable public services and transparent budgets; skeptical of endorsements absent operational results (Jerald Perezcruz; Joseph Bertelsman).
Manufacturing/plant management: Value stability of inputs, faster permitting, apprenticeships, and targeted trade enforcement; fiscal talk must connect to operations and paychecks (Randy Pena; Joseph Bertelsman).
Frontline healthcare: Center hospital staffing/funding and reducing out-of-pocket costs; wary that abstract tax-cut frames translate into fees or capacity strain (Omar Murphy).
Hispanic/Latino (cross-income): Consistently ask for concrete monthly-dollar impacts and protections for essential services (Erica Gutierrez; Randy Pena; Jerald Perezcruz).

Actionable Recommendations (Neutral, Evidence-Backed)

Publish a “Receipts” one-pager template: Standardize line items, who pays/benefits, monthly impacts, and guardrails on core services to meet demands for transparency and “real numbers.”
Launch a Household Cost Calculator (beta): Plain-English outputs that quantify monthly effects of healthcare, energy, groceries, and property insurance by region.
Issue a Florida insurance brief: Show expected premium deltas from reinsurance and mitigation policies; tie to storm-risk realities cited by respondents.
Track endorsements vs outcomes: Create an Endorsement Signal Tracker to contextualize PAC endorsements as tie-breakers relative to local proof and budget clarity.
Adopt a Plain-English style guide + Budget Transparency Standard: Eliminate jargon; require tradeoff disclosures and timelines in every brief.

Risks and Measurement Guardrails

Partisanship risk: Use neutral language, publish methods/assumptions, avoid voter-targeted advice.
Data freshness and gaps: Automate updates; display data-age badges; triangulate sources.
Privacy: No PII by default; aggregate-only analytics; security reviews for tools.
Small-sample overreach: Run n≥1,000 quant follow-up; replicate regionally; label confidence bands.

Next Steps and KPIs

0–30 days: Ship “Receipts” template and Plain-English guide; launch Endorsement Signal Tracker; begin FL insurance brief and calculator prototype.
31–60 days: Finalize Budget Transparency Standard; release calculator (beta); publish two regional briefs; recruit advisory panel.
61–90 days: Release Affordability Dashboard v1; publish four Segment Lens Reports; complete Endorsement vs Outcomes study; add 6–8 Local Proof Catalogue entries.

KPIs: Receipts Coverage Rate ≥90%; Calculator engagement ≥2.5 minutes and ≥40% completion; Regional Brief Adoption ≥15 citations; Data Freshness <14 days; Participant Trust Score ≥4.3/5.

Recommended Follow-up Questions Updated Jan 14, 2026

Which endorsements would most influence your vote in a Republican primary? Rank your top five, most to least influential. Options: Donald Trump; Your state’s governor; Local sheriff/police association; Veterans groups; Small business owners coalition; Local pastor/faith leaders; National pro-life organization; NRA/Second Amendment group; Club for Growth; Local newspaper editorial board; State Chamber of Commerce; Teachers’ association; Local taxpayer association.

rank Identifies which validators to prioritize for endorsement outreach and surrogate strategy beyond Club for Growth.
For each area, indicate your position on a 7-point scale where 1 = Protect from cuts and 7 = Cut if needed. Areas: Social Security; Medicare; Medicaid; Veterans services; Defense; Border security/immigration enforcement; K–12 education; Infrastructure (roads/bridges/ports); Law enforcement; Environmental/clean energy subsidies; Corporate tax credits/subsidies; Federal agency administrative overhead.

matrix Maps cut-protection red lines to design fiscally conservative plans without violating voter priorities.
Which fiscal approach should Republican candidates emphasize in 2026? Options: Cut spending to balance the budget without raising taxes, even if some services are reduced; Reduce taxes now and accept higher deficits in the short term; Maintain current services and delay deficit reduction; Cap annual federal spending growth below inflation, with no tax changes; Close tax loopholes/reduce some tax expenditures to fund priorities while holding overall taxes steady.

single select Clarifies preferred framing for fiscal conservatism trade-offs to shape platform positioning.
Which policy actions would most reduce your household costs? You will choose the most and least impactful in each set. Options: Require upfront medical prices; Expand tax-advantaged Health Savings Accounts (HSAs); Repeal certificate-of-need rules for new clinics/hospitals; Increase transparency and competition in pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs); Fast-track permits for domestic energy projects (including nuclear and natural gas); Expand nuclear power; Allow more homebuilding by streamlining loca...

maxdiff Prioritizes specific economic policies most likely to resonate for cost-of-living relief.
Which proof points would most increase your trust in a candidate’s fiscal conservatism? Select all that apply. Options: Independent audit of their budget plan; Line-item list of offsets (pay-fors) for each proposal; Before-and-after examples of monthly bill impacts for a typical family; Verification from a state auditor/comptroller or GAO; Track record of delivering projects on time and on budget; Interactive calculator to estimate your household savings; Endorsement from a fiscal watchdog organ...

multi select Guides evidence and creative assets to build credibility with ‘receipts, not slogans.’
What minimum monthly savings (in dollars) would a candidate need to credibly show for you to pay attention to their plan?

numeric Sets a concrete savings threshold to calibrate policy design and message claims.

Use maxdiff and matrix to quantify priorities despite small n; keep item lists concise in fielding to limit respondent fatigue.

Study Overview Updated Jan 14, 2026

News & Media

Source	Weight

GOP Primary Voter Priorities 2026

Omar Murphy

Jerald Perezcruz

Randy Pena

Billy Smith

Joseph Bertelsman

Erica Gutierrez

Omar Murphy

Jerald Perezcruz

Randy Pena

Billy Smith

Joseph Bertelsman

Erica Gutierrez

Sex / Gender

Race / Ethnicity

Locale (Top)

Occupations (Top)

Summary

Themes

Outliers

Overview

Key Segments

Shared Mindsets

Divergences

Overview

Quick Wins (next 2–4 weeks)

Initiatives (30–90 days)

KPIs to Track

Risks & Mitigations

Timeline

Study Objective and Context

Cross-Question Learnings (Grounded in Evidence)

Persona Correlations and Nuances

Actionable Recommendations (Neutral, Evidence-Backed)

Risks and Measurement Guardrails

Next Steps and KPIs

Distinct Market Research Groups

Marketing Reports Generated

Digital Twin Synthetic Personas

Questions Answered