Senator Shaheen Constituent Feedback: Government Shutdown Vote

Objective and context

We explored how New Hampshire constituents interpret Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s decision to break with Democrats and vote with Republicans to end a 41‑day government shutdown, despite the deal omitting protections for Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits. The goal: gauge reactions to the vote, trust impacts of party independence, and the messaging and actions constituents expect next.

What we heard across questions

• Stop immediate harm first. Respondents broadly endorsed reopening government to avert local damage to paychecks, services, and small businesses. As Marlaina Lash put it, “Forty-one days is foolish, and winter up here is no time to play chicken with paychecks.” Practical lenses dominated (TSA, shipyard, hospitals, plow crews), and operational impacts like tax season disruptions (VITA, IRS, SBA) resonated (Skyler Mcendree: “Tax season plus a shutdown is a gut punch…”).
• Support is conditional on fast, verifiable follow‑through. Voters were frustrated that ACA premium tax‑credit protections were left out and demanded concrete, near‑term steps: bill numbers, co‑sponsors, whip counts, timelines, and regular updates. Katlynn Martinez: “Co-sponsor a clean bill… publish the bill number… line up a whip count… give a timeline update.”
• Independence earns a modest, contingent trust bump. Many respected the willingness to take heat-even from family-to end harm. “She showed spine and sense,” said Marlaina. But trust is explicitly time‑boxed to visible progress; otherwise, independence risks reading as unreliable centrism (Dennis Perez: “Trust more she will keep the lights on… trust less she will hold the line on healthcare when it gets ugly.”).
• Tone matters: plain, local, no spin. Voters want candid acknowledgment of the trade‑off and a plan to fix it-no victory laps. “Start with the problem, not the politics,” advised Skyler. Several urged simple, bilingual touchpoints; Carey Parra suggested even a brief “Lo entiendo, y voy a arreglarlo.”

Persona correlations

• Older, rural healthcare‑adjacent workers value “adult in the room” governance; will reward independence only if it yields tangible healthcare protections (Marlaina Lash).
• Urban mid‑career professionals (finance/analyst/project) use a procedural lens-VITA/IRS/SBA bottlenecks-and insist on bill numbers, whip counts, and deadlines (Skyler Mcendree, Carey Parra, Dennis Perez).
• Younger, higher‑earning urban voters accept sequencing but threaten electoral consequences if receipts don’t materialize within 2–3 weeks (Katlynn Martinez).
• Rural blue‑collar/trades emphasize frontline pay and service continuity; independence reads as spine if followed by policy wins (Kyle Luckart).
• Marketplace insurance households feel acute budget risk and want binding, public commitments to ACA credits (Dennis Perez).
• Bilingual/Hispanic urban voters respond to accessible, local examples and Spanish snippets alongside plain‑language commitments (Carey Parra).

Recommendations anchored in evidence

• Issue a plain‑language statement that leads with harm reduction, owns the ACA gap, and sets a time‑boxed fix. Avoid victory laps; keep it local (paychecks, clinics, small biz).
• File or co‑sponsor an ACA premium tax‑credit protection bill within 14 days and publish the bill number. Pair with an initial public whip count and identified gaps.
• Stand up a weekly public progress tracker (Fridays) covering co‑sponsors, hearings/mark‑ups, whip delta, and next actions-meeting the demand for receipts.
• Show up locally with two town halls and one radio call‑in within 10 days; keep Q&A unscripted to reinforce the no‑spin posture.
• Ensure accessibility with brief EN/ES video and one‑pager to mirror bilingual expectations and broaden reach.

Risks and mitigations

• No near‑term path for ACA fix: Emphasize visible steps (bill, co‑sponsors, hearings) and publish blockers; pursue amendment and omnibus avenues.
• Overpromising timelines: Time‑box attempted actions and plainly disclose dependencies (committees, floor schedule, CBO).
• “Maverick without substance” narrative: Center local harms and deliverables; use validators (clinics, VITA volunteers, small businesses).
• Family disagreement eclipses policy: Reiterate shared goals, different sequencing; avoid score‑settling.

Next steps and measurement

1. Week 0–2: Release statement; file/co‑sponsor ACA bill and publish bill number; launch Friday tracker; hold 2 town halls + 1 radio call‑in; publish EN/ES assets.
2. Week 3–4: Push for hearing/mark‑up; post whip count and gaps; add 10–15 co‑sponsors; share stakeholder letters from NH hospitals/clinics/small biz.
3. Week 5–12: Pursue floor/amendment opportunities; maintain weekly updates; broaden coalition; monthly EN/ES recap.

• KPIs: Bill filed/co‑sponsored by Day 14; co‑sponsors ≥15 by Day 30 and ≥30 by Day 60; ≥95% on‑time Friday updates; 2 events in 10 days; ≥3,000 tracker visits with ≥1:30 avg time by Day 14; ≥70% neutral/positive mentions pairing “end shutdown” with “ACA plan” by Day 30.