PA 2026 Gubernatorial Voter Sentiment

Objective and context

Claude commissioned qualitative research to understand Pennsylvania voter priorities, perceptions of Governor Shapiro’s first term, and what messages and policies would most resonate for a 2026 re-election. Across questions, respondents prize operational competence that produces visible, local results and auditable proof over ideological positioning.

What matters most to voters

Day-to-day service reliability and affordability dominate. Respondents repeatedly named reliable infrastructure (power, plowing, roads, broadband), cost of living (housing, taxes, utilities), healthcare access/affordability, and public safety with transparent accountability as top voting drivers. They want measurable, timelineed, fiscally realistic plans-preferably localized by county and sector.

• Infrastructure and storm readiness: outages and plowing delays have real economic costs. “If the power goes out or the plows are late, my commute and our events blow up.” - Jamie Padilla
• Cost pressure on monthly bills: “Between property taxes, winter gas bills, and random fees, my budget feels like it’s getting pecked to death.” - Kelsey Watson
• Healthcare continuity and pricing clarity: networks, premiums, and surprise bills remain pain points.
• Public safety + accountability: support hinges on body cams, clear release timelines, and independent reviews.

Outliers include a rural veterinary workforce/service corps and prescriptive charter expansion-salient to some but not broadly shared.

Perceptions of Governor Shapiro’s first term

Voters broadly credit Shapiro with crisis response, administrative competence, and a steady tone. The I‑95 rebuild and storm communications are frequently cited as emblematic of “get-it-done” government. Skills-first hiring and permitting/licensing reforms also land positively. “Less drama, more do-the-job messaging, and I can live with that.” - Zachary Lowe

Where he falls short: policy whiplash in education (vouchers/scholarships), energy-policy ambiguity that fuels cost-of-living anxiety, persistent last-mile rural gaps (broadband, grid, EMS), and the absence of measurable timelines or consumer privacy protections. “He said he was for scholarships, then vetoed the money… Felt like a bait-and-switch.” - Jessica Gutierrez

What would earn support

“Receipts, not slogans.” Voters want a 100-day plan with 3–5 measurable targets, line-item budgets, and a public, bilingual dashboard. Early proof points within 60–100 days should show up on bills and in reliability.

• Winter ops and uptime: funded, dated plans; public plow GPS with ETAs; 72‑hour cell backup. “Prove you can keep the lights on and roads open.” - Jamie Padilla
• Affordability that hits bills: cap junk utility fees; auto-enroll heating aid; plain-language rate justifications.
• Public safety with accountability: statewide body cams, independent investigations with timelines; targeted auto-theft/ATV enforcement.
• Name tradeoffs: balanced budgets and explicit offsets for any new program.

Persona correlations and nuances

• Rural residents (Lamprecht, Long, Lowe): support is contingent on county-level fixes-microgrids, last-mile fiber, clinic/EMS backup-with clear timelines.
• Hospitality/small business (Padilla, Long): prioritize predictability-permitting speed, storm ETAs, and rules clarity that protect revenue.
• Urban renters/parents (Gutierrez, Padilla): want visible street-safety gains and clearer school-seat/transfer mechanics, with monthly KPIs.
• Younger suburban professionals (Watson): expect bilingual dashboards, auditable metrics, and candid fiscal tradeoffs.

Recommendations

• Launch a 100-Day Public Dashboard (“Receipts, not slogans”): bilingual, mobile-first, with raw data and county maps.
• Keep the Lights On PA: 3 microgrid pilots at clinics/fire halls/water plants; 72-hour cell-tower backup MOUs in rural counties; public plow GPS and after-action storm reports; county broadband build schedules with clawbacks.
• Affordability Now: publish permitting baselines and cut median times 30% for rehabs; one-page small-rehab fund; cap junk utility fees; auto-enroll heating aid; explain property-tax tradeoffs plainly.
• Healthcare Clarity & Continuity: enforce hospital price transparency with visible fines; insurer denial/network scorecards; facility-fee limits for telehealth/off-campus; 30-day continuity-of-care bridge.
• Safe Streets with Accountability: auto-theft/ATV task force; KPI-tied grants; statewide body-cam compliance reporting and incident-release timelines; targeted lighting/cameras on high-incident blocks.

Risks and measurement guardrails

• Legislative gridlock: front-load executive actions and bipartisan consumer protections with named offsets.
• Utility/carrier resistance: pair PUC enforcement with incentives; publish county league tables.
• Data quality gaps: start with 3–5 high-integrity KPIs; external audits and clear caveats.
• Accountability pushback: co-design body-cam timelines/training grants; phase-in via MOUs.
• Overpromising: pick fewer high-certainty targets; communicate slips with new dates.

Next steps and KPIs

1. 0–30 days: stand up a delivery unit; publish 100-day plan and dashboard v1; announce microgrid sites + cell-backup MOUs; launch plow-GPS pilots; issue hospital transparency enforcement; open Small-Biz One-Stop.
2. 31–100 days: first storm after-action reports; broadband build map with county milestones; activate auto-theft/ATV task force; release policing reporting standard; permitting blitz and rehab fund go live; first KPI update with raw data.
3. 3–6 months: demonstrate reliability gains and corridor crime reductions; initial rehab approvals; quarterly healthcare scorecards.
4. 6–12 months: scale reliability/broadband; extend plow-GPS where proven; sustain theft reductions; ≥95% body-cam compliance; track permit-time cuts and affordability impacts.

• KPIs: SAIDI/SAIFI reductions (≥15%/≥10% in pilot counties), plow ETA compliance (≥90%) and recovery time, new broadband households/miles, auto-theft reduction (≥20% YoY in corridors) and ATV impounds (≥500), hospital price-file compliance (100%) and continuity-bridge success (≥95%).