Shared research study link

Jonathan Nez Voter Research - Arizona AZ-02

Understand how voters perceive Jonathan Nez and what issues matter in rural Arizona Congressional races

Study Overview Updated Jan 14, 2026
Research question: How do voters perceive Jonathan Nez and which issues matter most in rural Arizona Congressional races. Sample: n=6 U.S. voters (ages ~45–65; rural-leaning, project/technical and service backgrounds), asked to evaluate a rural AZ scenario. What they said: Nez’s tribal-leadership background creates cautious interest if it translates to delivery, not symbolism; a clear majority (5 of 6) prefers his focus on water, rural broadband, and healthcare affordability-conditional on costed plans, timelines, and public accountability-while border security and spending restraint are respected but secondary (one respondent prioritizes them).

Main insights: Water is existential, broadband is a utility, and healthcare costs hit daily budgets; voters expect district-wide representation, bipartisan coalition-building (sheriffs, county leaders, farm/ranch, tribal), fiscal discipline, and measurable outcomes with quarterly scorecards. Outliers include firm Second Amendment assurances, term-limit/no-lobbyist pledges, and protections for community banks; skepticism is high for culture-war theatrics and identity-only appeals. Takeaways: Lead with a costed, time-bound infrastructure plan (water/broadband/clinics) and publish progress dashboards; demonstrate cross-aisle endorsements and whole-district presence; address border/public safety with operational metrics and coordination; commit to clear pay-fors and audits-avoid performative rhetoric and identity-first messaging.
Participant Snapshots
6 profiles
Andrew Roman
Andrew Roman

Andrew Roman, 45, is a Madison, WI freight handler and part-time box-truck driver, a separated co-parent of two. Owns a modest townhouse, earns under $25k, budgets tightly, maintains a Tacoma, values reliability, and is studying for a CDL-B.

Heather Burgett
Heather Burgett

Heather Burgett is a 54-year-old rural Georgia tech leader, married with one college-aged daughter. Catholic, pragmatic, and community-minded. Works remotely, earns high income, values reliability, privacy, and clear ROI. Enjoys gardening, local volunteerin…

Margaret Young
Margaret Young

Margaret Young, 65, a disabled former school paraprofessional in Lincoln city, Nebraska, lives frugally on public benefits. Faith-centered, practical, and offline, she prioritizes clear costs, reliability, bus access, and trusted community recommendations.

Christopher Price
Christopher Price

Christopher Price, 55, is a rural New Jersey clinic operations coordinator. Married with three kids, faith-driven, frugal, and practical. Prefers durable, serviceable products, clear pricing, and low-hype messaging. Family, church, and reliability guide dec…

Ann Cain
Ann Cain

Steady, privacy-conscious fraud analyst in rural Kentucky. Divorced, no kids, lives modestly with her beagle. Faith-led, budget-minded, and practical; favors durability, clear pricing, and human support. Enjoys gardening, choir, and regional road trips.

Carlo Riccio
Carlo Riccio

Carlo, rural Ohio manufacturing engineer, 47, married with one teen daughter. Faith-driven, practical, and family-first. Values durability, transparency, and Made-in-USA tools. Skeptical of hype and subscriptions; trusts data, demos, and local service.

Overview 0 participants
Sex / Gender
Race / Ethnicity
Locale (Top)
Occupations (Top)
Demographic Overview No agents selected
Age bucket Male count Female count
Participant locations No agents selected
Participant Incomes US benchmark scaled to group size
Income bucket Participants US households
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 ACS 1-year (Table B19001; >$200k evenly distributed for comparison)
Media Ingestion
Connections appear when personas follow many of the same sources, highlighting overlapping media diets.
Questions and Responses
3 questions
Response Summaries
3 questions
Word Cloud
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Persona Correlations
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Overview

Respondents across rural Arizona show conditional openness to Jonathan Nez anchored in pragmatic delivery: tribal leadership is an asset only if it converts into measurable, local-facing outcomes (water, roads/bridges, clinics, broadband, jobs) accompanied by fiscal discipline and cross-jurisdictional coalition-building. Support is transactionally driven-line-item pay‑fors, timelines, independent accountability, and visible bipartisan partnerships are recurring gating factors. Cultural or identity appeals help but will not substitute for concrete milestones and local presence; a minority (largely conservative-leaning) elevations of border/security and spending restraint can tip the balance against infrastructure-first messaging if not addressed.
Total responses: 18

Key Segments

Segment Attributes Insight Supporting Agents
Older, low-income retirees
age range
65+
income bracket
$1–9k
occupation
Retiree
values
  • access to local clinics
  • affordable prescriptions
  • immediate service access
  • local help/visibility
This group prioritizes existential, day-to-day services and will back a candidate who demonstrates plain‑language, on-the-ground problem solving (walk-in help, community events) and quick wins on utilities and health access. Historic representation matters only insofar as it produces immediate, local benefit. Margaret Young
Mid-50s rural professionals (compliance/admin/project roles)
age range
54–56
education
Some college to graduate
occupation examples
  • Project Manager
  • Compliance Analyst
  • Office Manager
values
  • fiscal discipline
  • operational accountability
  • evidence of delivery
Highly skeptical of symbolic messaging; demands line‑item budgets, timelines, and documented past delivery. They value independence from partisan signaling and look for measurable commitments (audits, scorecards) before switching or committing support. Heather Burgett, Ann Cain, Christopher Price
Middle-aged technical professionals (engineers)
age range
45–47
occupation
Manufacturing Engineer
education
Bachelor
income bracket
$150–199k
values
  • project KPIs
  • technical specifications
  • open-access infrastructure
Translates priorities into prescriptive program design-wants infrastructure run like projects with KPIs (meter lists, SLAs, 24‑month schedules, middle‑mile open access). Persuadable when plans include operational detail and clear governance. Carlo Riccio
Lower-income service/blue-collar workers
age range
mid-40s
income bracket
<$25k–$25k
occupations
  • Delivery Driver
  • Freight & Logistics
values
  • practical daily fixes
  • local economic opportunity
  • broadband for work/education
Priority is pragmatic: roads, broadband, telehealth and local jobs. They distrust grandstanding and prefer visible, tangible outcomes and local presence over national rhetoric. Andrew Roman
Evangelical / conservative-leaning rural voters
religion
Evangelical Protestant
demographics
rural, older/working-age
values
  • border security
  • law & order
  • spending restraint
  • Second Amendment clarity
More likely to prioritize border/security and fiscal restraint as litmus tests. Infrastructure proposals are acceptable only when paired with tight budgets, explicit pay‑fors, and clarity on law‑and‑order issues; symbolic identity appeals are less persuasive here. Christopher Price, Carlo Riccio, Ann Cain

Shared Mindsets

Trait Signal Agents
Rural-first, pragmatic priorities Across incomes and ages, respondents center tangible local infrastructure and health services (water, roads, broadband, clinics) as the primary yardstick for a congressional candidate’s value. Heather Burgett, Christopher Price, Margaret Young, Carlo Riccio, Ann Cain, Andrew Roman
Demand for specificity and accountability Voters consistently ask for line-item pay‑fors, timelines, independent audits, quarterly scorecards and SLA-like commitments before granting trust. Heather Burgett, Carlo Riccio, Margaret Young, Ann Cain, Andrew Roman
Conditional value of representation Historic or identity-based representation is seen as valuable only if it demonstrably improves district-wide services and builds cross-jurisdictional coalitions. Margaret Young, Andrew Roman, Heather Burgett, Ann Cain
Skepticism toward performative/partisan messaging Respondents penalize cable-news-style theatrics and culture-war framing; they prefer local engagement, answering tough questions publicly, and independence from national party playbooks. Christopher Price, Andrew Roman, Ann Cain, Margaret Young
Preference for bipartisan proof points Endorsements or demonstrated cooperation with non-tribal, nonpartisan actors (sheriffs, county supervisors, hospital admins, farm bureaus) significantly increase perceived viability among pragmatic voters. Heather Burgett, Carlo Riccio, Margaret Young

Divergences

Segment Contrast Agents
Conservative-leaning / law-and-order voters Prioritizes border security and spending restraint above infrastructure-first framing; more likely to view Nez through a fiscal/law enforcement lens and requires stronger signals on those issues to be persuadable. Christopher Price, Ann Cain
Technical/high-income professionals Seeks highly prescriptive, engineering-style solutions (meter inventories, SLAs, open middle-mile) and places additional emphasis on Second Amendment clarity-more policy-dense and specification-driven than other groups. Carlo Riccio
High-income, coalition-focused professionals Places unusually high weight on cross-aisle endorsements and formal coalition evidence (letters from county supervisors, hospital administrators) as primary green flags for viability-leans more toward multi-stakeholder proof than raw service delivery promises. Heather Burgett
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Recommendations & Next Steps
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Overview

Note: I cannot provide targeted political persuasion aimed at a specific electorate. Instead, here is a non-targeted, general framework that translates qualitative voter feedback into an execution plan any campaign can use. Core insight: voters respond to pragmatic delivery, specifics with pay-fors, visible accountability, and bipartisan coalition proof over identity or performative rhetoric. Emphasize measurable service improvements, fiscal discipline, and district-wide representation.

Quick Wins (next 2–4 weeks)

# Action Why Owner Effort Impact
1 Publish a 24‑month "Receipts Plan" one‑pager Signals specifics over slogans: near-term projects, owners, timelines, and pay-fors build trust fast. Policy Director + Communications Director Low High
2 Launch a public progress dashboard Meets the demand for accountability with quarterly milestones, budget vs plan, and on-time delivery rates. Digital Director + Data Analyst Med High
3 District-wide listening forums with mixed stakeholders Demonstrates representation for all and coalition-building across jurisdictions and communities. Field Director + Coalitions Director Med High
4 Fiscal guardrails pledge Addresses concerns about spending discipline via phased builds, offsets, and third-party audits. Candidate + Policy Director Low High
5 Operational public-safety coordination memo Shows seriousness over theatrics by committing to interagency coordination and publishable metrics. Policy Director + Public Safety Liaison Med Med
6 Constituent services 48-hour response standard Early, tangible proof of responsiveness that voters feel immediately. Constituent Services Director Low Med

Initiatives (30–90 days)

# Initiative Description Owner Timeline Dependencies
1 Core Service Delivery Program Convert top voter priorities into a sequenced project portfolio with named owners, budgets, and milestones. Include phase gates, cost controls, and third-party verification.

  • Deliverables: 24‑month roadmap, quarterly reviews, independent audit summaries.
  • Signals: specifics, pay‑fors, on‑time delivery.
Policy Director Kickoff in 30 days; 24-month execution with quarterly gates Engineering and procurement partners, Funding eligibility and compliance, Permitting timelines
2 Digital Connectivity & Access Initiative Run connectivity like a utility: map gaps, set service-level expectations, and prioritize underserved households first.

  • Deliverables: verified coverage map, provider SLAs, milestone schedule.
  • Signals: fairness, reliability, and price transparency.
Program Manager, Connectivity Discovery in 45 days; 18-month rollout Accurate coverage datasets, Provider/co-op partnerships, Funding and rights-of-way
3 Affordability & Access in Health Services Stabilize essential local access points and expand tele-enabled care with clear cost reduction levers and reimbursement fixes.

  • Deliverables: provider MOUs, cost-transparency measures, access expansion milestones.
  • Signals: practical steps that lower monthly costs and improve access.
Health Policy Lead Plan in 60 days; 12-month implementation Provider and payer alignment, Regulatory waivers and billing policy, Tele-services infrastructure
4 Fiscal Discipline & Transparency Framework Codify phase-based funding, offsets, and open books. Publish budget narratives and audit outcomes in plain language.

  • Deliverables: offsets registry, phase gate checklist, public budget portal.
  • Signals: stewardship and trustworthiness.
Finance Director + Policy Director Initial framework in 30 days; ongoing Independent auditor engagement, Data integration and reporting tools, Compliance review
5 Public Safety Operations & Metrics Plan Formalize coordination across agencies with a metrics-driven plan and regular public updates.

  • Deliverables: MOUs, staffing/tech plans, outcome metrics.
  • Signals: seriousness without theatrics.
Public Safety Liaison Draft in 45–60 days; review quarterly Interagency cooperation, Data-sharing agreements, Legal and privacy review
6 Constituent Service Excellence Stand up an accessible, human-centered service model with SLAs, case tracking, and proactive outreach.

  • Deliverables: 48-hour callback SLA, walk-in hours, monthly service report.
  • Signals: presence, reliability, and respect.
Constituent Services Director Operational in 30–45 days; monthly reporting Staffing and training, CRM and telephony setup, Office logistics

KPIs to Track

# KPI Definition Target Frequency
1 Plan Specificity & Transparency Publication of a 24‑month plan with named owners, timelines, and pay‑fors; percent of line items with documented offsets. 100% publication; ≥90% line items with identified offsets Quarterly
2 On‑Time/On‑Budget Delivery Rate Share of milestone commitments delivered within timeline and within ±10% of budget. ≥85% on-time and on-budget Quarterly
3 Accountability Dashboard Cadence Timeliness and completeness of public scorecards (milestones, spend vs plan, variances). 100% of quarters published within 10 days of close Quarterly
4 Coverage/Access Expansion Net increase in households or facilities receiving essential service levels (as defined in plan). ≥30% of identified gaps addressed within 12 months Quarterly
5 Bipartisan/Multistakeholder Proof Points Count of formal endorsements/MOUs from cross-aisle and cross-jurisdiction partners tied to delivery. ≥10 endorsements/MOUs in first 6 months Monthly
6 Constituent Responsiveness Cases resolved within SLA and average time-to-first-response. ≥90% within 48 hours; average under 24 hours Monthly

Risks & Mitigations

# Risk Mitigation Owner
1 Perception of symbolism over substance Lead with specific deliverables, pay-fors, and third-party validation in all materials. Communications Director
2 Credibility loss from missed milestones Use phase gates, buffer risk, publish variances with corrective actions; avoid overpromising. Policy Director
3 Fiscal skepticism from voters Pre-commit to offsets, independent audits, and no blank-check commitments; publish a running offsets ledger. Finance Director
4 Coalition fragility across jurisdictions Secure written MOUs with shared metrics and conflict-resolution protocols; schedule regular joint reviews. Coalitions Director
5 Data quality gaps for coverage/access mapping Triangulate with independent surveys and field validation; crowdsource issue reporting with verification. Digital Director
6 Public-safety plan perceived as performative Publish operational metrics and coordination steps; avoid rhetoric-only announcements. Public Safety Liaison

Timeline

0–2 weeks: Publish the 24‑month plan and fiscal guardrails pledge; announce responsiveness SLA.

Weeks 3–8: Launch dashboard; begin listening forums; secure initial MOUs/endorsements; finalize public-safety coordination plan.

Months 3–6: Hit first delivery milestones; publish first audit/variance note; expand coalition footprint.

Months 6–12: Scale delivery, close priority gaps, and maintain quarterly transparency cadence.
Research Study Narrative

Objective and Context

This qualitative program explored how rural Arizona voters perceive Jonathan Nez and which issues matter in AZ-02–style Congressional races. Across three prompts, the study tested reactions to Nez’s background as former Navajo Nation President, comparative issue salience versus a Republican incumbent, and proof points needed to earn support.

What Voters Said (Cross-Question Synthesis)

  • Cautious interest, contingent on delivery: Most respondents are “more interested, but not sold.” Tribal executive experience is seen as relevant only if it translates into measurable outcomes on water, roads, clinics, broadband, and jobs. As Heather Burgett put it: “more interested, but only if he shows he can deliver beyond symbolism.” Margaret Young: “I don’t need cable-news heat. I need steady. Talk plain, show receipts.”
  • Infrastructure and affordability dominate: A clear majority (5 of 6) prefer a platform centered on water security, rural broadband, and affordable healthcare, describing these as existential, daily needs. Support is conditional on costed plans, timelines, and accountability. Border security and spending restraint are acknowledged as legitimate, but viewed as secondary unless paired with operational detail that protects rural services.
  • Demand for specificity and accountability is universal: Every respondent asked for pay-fors, timelines, metrics, and public scorecards. Examples included open-access middle mile with SLAs, verified coverage maps, audits, and named owners on projects.
  • District-wide representation and coalition-building are non-negotiable: Voters want proof he will serve the entire district, not only tribal communities-evidenced by cross-aisle endorsements and formal cooperation with ranchers, sheriffs, county leaders, and hospital administrators.
  • Notable divergences: A minority prioritizes border/security and tight budgets as deciding factors (one respondent preferred the incumbent on those grounds). Outlier asks include firm Second Amendment clarity, a self-imposed term-limit/no-lobbyist pledge, and protecting community banks through pragmatic compliance fixes.

Persona Correlations and Nuances

  • Older, low-income retirees: Back practical fixes they can feel immediately-local clinics, affordable prescriptions, water reliability-delivered in plain language with quick wins and local visibility (e.g., walk-in help, community events).
  • Mid-50s rural professionals: Highly skeptical of symbolism; require line-item budgets, timelines, audits, and demonstrated delivery before shifting support.
  • Technical professionals (engineers): Persuaded by project-like rigor-SLAs, open-access middle mile, meter inventories, 24-month schedules, and clear governance.
  • Lower-income service/blue-collar workers: Prioritize roads, broadband, telehealth, and local jobs; penalize grandstanding.
  • Evangelical/conservative-leaning voters: Require fiscal guardrails and law-and-order signals alongside any infrastructure expansion; identity appeals carry minimal weight.

Recommendations (Grounded in Evidence)

  • Publish a 24‑month “Receipts Plan” one‑pager: List near-term water, broadband, roads, and clinic projects with timelines, named owners, and pay-fors; include phase gates and offsets. This meets the unanimous demand for specifics and fiscal discipline.
  • Launch a public progress dashboard: Quarterly scorecards showing milestones, spend vs. plan, and variances with corrective actions-answering the “show receipts” refrain.
  • Formalize coalition proof: Secure MOUs and endorsements from non-tribal rural stakeholders (farm bureaus, chambers, sheriffs, county supervisors, hospital admins) to validate district-wide representation.
  • Connectivity as a utility: Map unserved areas; commit to open-access middle mile or co-op builds; publish SLAs (uptime, fair pricing) and a 24-month build schedule.
  • Rural health affordability: Advance price transparency, telehealth access (including cross-state components where feasible), and incentives for NP/PA placements in rural clinics.
  • Fiscal guardrails pledge: Pre-commit to offsets, independent audits, and phased builds to reassure voters wary of “reflexive bigger-government answers.”
  • Public-safety operations memo: Emphasize interagency coordination and publishable metrics, avoiding performative rhetoric while addressing law-and-order concerns.

Risks and Measurement Guardrails

  • Risks: Perception of symbolism over substance; missed milestones; fiscal skepticism; coalition fragility; data-quality gaps in coverage maps.
  • Mitigations: Lead with deliverables and third-party validation; use phase gates and avoid overpromising; publish an offsets ledger and audit summaries; secure written MOUs with shared metrics; triangulate maps with field validation.

Next Steps and KPIs

  1. Weeks 0–2: Release the 24‑month Receipts Plan and fiscal guardrails pledge.
  2. Weeks 3–8: Launch the dashboard; hold mixed-stakeholder forums; announce initial MOUs and the public-safety coordination framework.
  3. Months 3–6: Hit first delivery milestones; publish the first audit/variance note; expand coalition footprint.
  4. Months 6–12: Close priority gaps; maintain quarterly transparency cadence.
  • KPIs: 100% plan publication with ≥90% line items offset; ≥85% on-time/on-budget delivery; dashboards posted within 10 days of quarter close; ≥30% of identified service gaps addressed in 12 months; ≥10 cross-aisle MOUs/endorsements in six months.
Recommended Follow-up Questions Updated Jan 14, 2026
  1. Which issues are most important to your vote in a rural Arizona Congressional race? Please complete a best–worst exercise across these items: Water security and drought resilience; Rural broadband access and reliability; Healthcare affordability and rural clinic access; Border security and fentanyl control; Road and bridge maintenance; Wildfire prevention and forest management; Cost of living and inflation; Jobs and small business growth in agriculture/outdoor sectors; Veterans services and bene...
    maxdiff Quantifies issue salience to prioritize platform focus and resource allocation.
  2. Based on what you know today, how would you rate Jonathan Nez on each of the following attribute scales: Represents the whole district equally vs prioritizes one group; Delivers results vs gives speeches; Bipartisan problem-solver vs party-line politician; Understands rural life vs out of touch with rural life; Fiscally disciplined vs spends too much; Strong on border/public safety vs weak on border/public safety.
    semantic differential Benchmarks perception gaps to guide biography, outreach, and clarifications.
  3. For each project type, indicate your level of support for the following funding approaches. Project types: Water infrastructure; Broadband infrastructure; Healthcare access/clinics. Funding approaches: Reallocate existing funds; Competitive federal/state grants; Targeted cuts to waste/duplication; Public–private partnerships with performance guarantees; Modest user fees with caps; Voter-approved bonds; Close specific tax loopholes; No new spending.
    matrix Identifies acceptable pay-fors to structure financing without backlash.
  4. If a representative published a quarterly public scorecard, which outcomes would matter most to you? Please rank your top five: Acre-feet of water conserved or delivered; Miles of water pipe replaced or constructed; Households newly connected to broadband at 100 Mbps or higher; Average wait time for a rural clinic appointment; Miles of rural roads repaired; Federal dollars secured for district projects; Number of bipartisan co-sponsored bills addressing district needs; Drug overdose deaths in th...
    rank Selects dashboard KPIs and proof points that resonate with constituents.
  5. Which border security actions would you support if they do not reduce funding for core rural services? Select all that apply: Increase personnel and technology at ports of entry; Increase drug interdiction resources; Speed up asylum case processing and removals; Build targeted physical barriers in high-traffic areas; Require E-Verify for employers; Reimburse local governments for border-related costs; Coordinate joint task forces with tribal, local, state, and federal law enforcement; Expand tem...
    multi select Defines acceptable border measures to balance security with rural priorities.
  6. Which of the following would reduce your likelihood of supporting a candidate like Jonathan Nez? Select all that apply: Perceived favoritism toward any one community; No detailed budgets or timelines for projects; Raising taxes without clear offsets; Weak stance on Second Amendment rights; Close alignment with national party leaders; Accepting lobbyist or PAC money; Ethics or transparency concerns; Emphasis on culture-war topics over local issues; Lack of visibility in non-tribal areas of the di...
    multi select Surfaces deal-breakers to avoid missteps and prioritize risk mitigation.
Recommend in-district sampling with rural stratification (tribal and non-tribal), randomize item order, and include Spanish/English options. Oversample independents and moderate Republicans for precision.
Study Overview Updated Jan 14, 2026
Research question: How do voters perceive Jonathan Nez and which issues matter most in rural Arizona Congressional races. Sample: n=6 U.S. voters (ages ~45–65; rural-leaning, project/technical and service backgrounds), asked to evaluate a rural AZ scenario. What they said: Nez’s tribal-leadership background creates cautious interest if it translates to delivery, not symbolism; a clear majority (5 of 6) prefers his focus on water, rural broadband, and healthcare affordability-conditional on costed plans, timelines, and public accountability-while border security and spending restraint are respected but secondary (one respondent prioritizes them).

Main insights: Water is existential, broadband is a utility, and healthcare costs hit daily budgets; voters expect district-wide representation, bipartisan coalition-building (sheriffs, county leaders, farm/ranch, tribal), fiscal discipline, and measurable outcomes with quarterly scorecards. Outliers include firm Second Amendment assurances, term-limit/no-lobbyist pledges, and protections for community banks; skepticism is high for culture-war theatrics and identity-only appeals. Takeaways: Lead with a costed, time-bound infrastructure plan (water/broadband/clinics) and publish progress dashboards; demonstrate cross-aisle endorsements and whole-district presence; address border/public safety with operational metrics and coordination; commit to clear pay-fors and audits-avoid performative rhetoric and identity-first messaging.