Texas Democratic Party: 2026 Midterm Voter Sentiment Research
Understand American voter priorities, messaging preferences, and turnout motivations ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in Texas
Main insights: Winning outreach is hyper-local and time-respectful-one-page/one-issue, plain language with dates, dollars, and a named owner, delivered in-person or via short, low-data channels, with visible “receipts”; attack ads and fundraising spam backfire. Turnout rises with low-friction logistics (mail/drop boxes, clear sites, evening/weekend hours, rides/curbside) plus concise commitments and protection of everyday needs; volunteer energy increases with micro-shifts, small reimbursements, bilingual simple materials, and monthly progress updates. Texas takeaways: prioritize ERCOT reliability and heat/wildfire resilience, affordable health/Rx, housing + treatment beds, transit/road basics, and junk-fee crackdowns-then publish monthly receipts with tradeoffs and a contact. Do not lean on fear/culture-war or opaque money; deliver one visible local win early and keep communications info-first and respectful of people’s time.
Christopher Valencia
1) Basic Demographics
Christopher Valencia is a 47-year-old Black (Non-Hispanic) man living in an urban neighborhood of San Diego, California (near the City Heights/North Park border). He is male, never married, and a non-citizen permanent reside…
John Cruz
1) Basic Demographics
John Cruz is a 63-year-old Hispanic man living in urban Denver, Colorado. He’s a U.S. citizen, English-at-home speaker, and a steady presence in his neighborhood—polite at the crosswalk, chatty in the elevator, and quick wit…
Billy Smith
Billy Smith is a disabled former line cook in Duluth with zero household income, married, faith centered, and frugal. Pragmatic decision maker using cost, durability, and accessibility heuristics. Values community support, simple tech, and low friction serv…
Elizabeth Switzer
Elizabeth Switzer, 40, divorced Akron renter on disability, frugal and community-minded. Faith-centered, cozy crafter, careful budgeter. Seeks transparent, accessible, low-friction products and services that respect her limited energy and prioritize comfort…
Patricia Thompson
Patricia Thompson: Gresham, Oregon nail salon lead and shift manager, 42, single, renter, no kids. Budget disciplined, e-bike commuter, community oriented. Pragmatic progressive, faith rooted, risk aware. Aims to open a micro studio with measured growth.
Adriana Williams
Adriana Williams is a rural Oregon mom of three, married, faith-centered, and budget-focused. Not in the labor force; past work in local amusements. Chooses reliable, low-cost solutions, avoids contracts, and values local referrals, clear warranties, and co…
Christopher Valencia
1) Basic Demographics
Christopher Valencia is a 47-year-old Black (Non-Hispanic) man living in an urban neighborhood of San Diego, California (near the City Heights/North Park border). He is male, never married, and a non-citizen permanent reside…
John Cruz
1) Basic Demographics
John Cruz is a 63-year-old Hispanic man living in urban Denver, Colorado. He’s a U.S. citizen, English-at-home speaker, and a steady presence in his neighborhood—polite at the crosswalk, chatty in the elevator, and quick wit…
Billy Smith
Billy Smith is a disabled former line cook in Duluth with zero household income, married, faith centered, and frugal. Pragmatic decision maker using cost, durability, and accessibility heuristics. Values community support, simple tech, and low friction serv…
Elizabeth Switzer
Elizabeth Switzer, 40, divorced Akron renter on disability, frugal and community-minded. Faith-centered, cozy crafter, careful budgeter. Seeks transparent, accessible, low-friction products and services that respect her limited energy and prioritize comfort…
Patricia Thompson
Patricia Thompson: Gresham, Oregon nail salon lead and shift manager, 42, single, renter, no kids. Budget disciplined, e-bike commuter, community oriented. Pragmatic progressive, faith rooted, risk aware. Aims to open a micro studio with measured growth.
Adriana Williams
Adriana Williams is a rural Oregon mom of three, married, faith-centered, and budget-focused. Not in the labor force; past work in local amusements. Chooses reliable, low-cost solutions, avoids contracts, and values local referrals, clear warranties, and co…
Sex / Gender
Race / Ethnicity
Locale (Top)
Occupations (Top)
| Age bucket | Male count | Female count |
|---|
| Income bucket | Participants | US households |
|---|
Summary
Themes
| Theme | Count | Example Participant | Example Quote |
|---|
Outliers
| Agent | Snippet | Reason |
|---|
Overview
Key Segments
| Segment | Attributes | Insight | Supporting Agents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower-income older renters |
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This group prioritizes protections for fixed incomes (Medicare, Social Security), immediate cost relief (utilities, fees), and low-barrier voting/outreach (paper one-pagers, ballot mail instructions, phone contact). Trust is built through pragmatic service delivery and visible neighborhood-level public safety responses. | John Cruz |
| Working-class cold-weather city residents |
|
Priorities center on benefit stability (SNAP/LIHEAP), faster SSDI/benefits processing, reliable winter services (plowing, road safety), and communications that are extremely low-friction (fridge-ready one-pagers, short texts). They respond to operational, route-specific asks and very concrete volunteer opportunities. | Billy Smith, Elizabeth Switzer |
| Rural and small-town caregivers / stay-at-home adults |
|
Service-first concerns (broadband, propane/wood heat, cell coverage) combine with acute resilience needs (prescribed burns, utility accountability). These voters accept short-term tradeoffs for long-term safety, and outreach must respect rural norms and avoid urban condescension to maintain credibility. | Adriana Williams |
| Higher-earning small-business / gig-economy managers |
|
Their priorities are transactional and operational: permitting speed, consistent card/processing fees, workforce pipelines (CTE, apprenticeships), and local homelessness/transportation solutions that preserve customer access. They demand receipts, tradeoff clarity, and unscripted public accountability from candidates. | Patricia Thompson |
| Religious, immigrant, and minority homeowners in diverse urban neighborhoods |
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Faith and immigrant identity intersect with foreign-policy stances and local accommodations: candidates perceived as indifferent to salient international issues (e.g., Gaza) or as failing to provide faith-friendly operational details (halal food, prayer-friendly scheduling) risk lower volunteer engagement and turnout in these communities. | Christopher Valencia |
| Pocketbook-driven mixed-age swing voters (cross-cutting) |
|
Across demographics, voters coalesce around monthly cost relief and practical service assurances. These swing voters respond best to tangible, local commitments (dates, dollar estimates, named leads) and are turned off by nationalized or identity-first messaging. | John Cruz, Adriana Williams, Patricia Thompson, Christopher Valencia, Elizabeth Switzer, Billy Smith |
Shared Mindsets
| Trait | Signal | Agents |
|---|---|---|
| Pocketbook-first voting calculus | Nearly every respondent prioritized everyday costs (groceries, rent, utilities, junk fees) as primary drivers of vote choice; concrete monthly relief or administrative fixes are persuasive across ages and locales. | John Cruz, Adriana Williams, Patricia Thompson, Christopher Valencia, Elizabeth Switzer, Billy Smith |
| Preference for pragmatic, local solutions | Voters want place-based specifics (street names, bus routes, bed counts), timelines, and named accountable officials rather than slogans or nationalized rhetoric; specificity increases credibility and willingness to volunteer. | Patricia Thompson, Elizabeth Switzer, John Cruz, Billy Smith, Adriana Williams, Christopher Valencia |
| Public-safety as treatment plus targeted enforcement | Respondents prefer a balanced approach-expanded treatment beds and co-responder models, paired with enforcement targeted at high-harm actors-rather than broad sweeps or purely punitive measures. | Adriana Williams, Patricia Thompson, Elizabeth Switzer, Christopher Valencia, John Cruz |
| Rejection of performative culture-war tactics | Fear-based ads, staged photo-ops, and culture-war bait reduce credibility; voters reward candidates who bring receipts, show up locally, and focus on services. | John Cruz, Patricia Thompson, Elizabeth Switzer, Billy Smith, Adriana Williams |
| Low-friction, accountable outreach preference | Tactics that minimize effort and provide accountability-one-page mailers, short low-data texts, door knocks with phone numbers, unscripted town halls, and visible follow-up reporting-are repeatedly cited as effective across segments. | Elizabeth Switzer, Billy Smith, John Cruz, Christopher Valencia, Patricia Thompson, Adriana Williams |
| Baseline concern about election administration and trust | Simple, secure process features (paper backups, clear dropbox and mail-ballot instructions, visible chain-of-custody) matter to voters and are tied directly to overall trust in candidates and the system. | John Cruz, Christopher Valencia, Adriana Williams, Patricia Thompson, Elizabeth Switzer |
Divergences
| Segment | Contrast | Agents |
|---|---|---|
| Religious / immigrant / minority homeowners | Unlike many respondents who prioritize local service delivery and pocketbook issues alone, this group links candidate credibility to foreign-policy positions and faith accommodations; ignoring those links risks reduced volunteerism and turnout. | Christopher Valencia |
| Rural caregivers with social-conservative views | Some rural respondents (e.g., socially conservative on cultural questions) nonetheless prioritize progressive service investments (treatment beds, childcare, prescribed burns), producing cross-cutting attitudes that don't map neatly onto partisan issue bundles. | Adriana Williams |
| Working-class resource-region voters | Workers in resource-dependent regions show pragmatic balancing-support for jobs alongside strict environmental protections (e.g., water protection over mining)-which differs from urban environmental frames that emphasize broad climate policy. | Billy Smith |
| Higher-earning small-business operators vs. lower-income renters | Small-business managers prioritize procedural predictability (permitting, card fees, workforce pipelines) and unscripted accountability, while lower-income renters emphasize benefit safeguards and low-barrier outreach; both want receipts but on different policy timelines and messengers. | Patricia Thompson, John Cruz |
Overview
Quick Wins (next 2–4 weeks)
| # | Action | Why | Owner | Effort | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Launch fridge-ready one-pagers (TX v1) | Voters want one page, one issue with dates, dollars, and who’s accountable. | Messaging Lead | Low | High |
| 2 | Monthly receipts cadence (3 pilot counties) | Visible follow-through builds trust and volunteer energy. | Operations/Chief of Staff | Med | High |
| 3 | SMS hygiene + info-first switch | Replace spam with useful, short texts to cut opt-outs and raise engagement. | Digital Director | Low | Med |
| 4 | Small-room town hall kit | In-person, time-respectful events with chairs, rides, bilingual materials convert skeptics. | Field Director | Med | High |
| 5 | TX voter logistics one-pager | Turnout improves with low-friction info: early vote hours, ID rules, rides line. | Civic Engagement Lead | Low | High |
| 6 | Local-specifics map bank (seed) | Place names (streets, routes, ERCOT zones, shelters) make messages feel real. | Data & Analytics Lead | Med | Med |
Initiatives (30–90 days)
| # | Initiative | Description | Owner | Timeline | Dependencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | One-Page Promise Library (Texas) | Create a library of one-issue, one-page commitments for TX priorities: cost-of-living/junk fees, ERCOT/heat resilience, housing + treatment beds, health costs (Rx/dental), orderly + humane border, roads/transit. Each includes date, budget, pay-for, and a named owner; English/Spanish templates. | Messaging Lead | V1 in 4–6 weeks; updates monthly through Nov 2026 | Policy Director (costing + pay-fors), Design (accessible layout), Legal (claims review), Data Hub (local specifics) |
| 2 | Texas Local Specificity Data Hub | Build a lightweight data hub of place-based references: county/city streets, DART/METRO/VIA routes, shelter/bed counts, detox capacity, ERCOT sub-regions/outage hotspots, cooling centers, heat/air quality alerts. Feed into one-pagers, scripts, and town-hall slides. | Data & Analytics Lead | MVP in 8 weeks; expand quarterly | Public/open data (TxDOT, transit agencies, ERCOT, counties), Community partners (faith, firefighters, clinics), GIS tooling |
| 3 | Accountability & Receipts Program | Publish monthly one-page receipts by county: beds opened, routes stabilized, utility wins, wait-time targets. Include tradeoffs, misses, and next steps with named owner + phone. Web + print. Track delivery in a public dashboard. | Operations/Chief of Staff | Launch in 60 days; monthly thereafter | Data Hub (metrics ingest), Design (print + web), Legal (disclosure/compliance) |
| 4 | Micro-Field & Volunteer Model | Shift to micro-shifts (60–90 min), sit-down options, childcare/gas stipends, bilingual leave-behinds. Neighborhood canvass, faith-aware scheduling (post-Maghrib/Sun PM), and service-first actions (cleanup, pantry shift) before doors. | Field Director | Pilot in 3 metro + 2 rural markets within 45 days; scale by Aug 2026 | Budget (stipends, materials), Community Partnerships (sites, validators), Training (30-min modules) |
| 5 | Voter Access & Logistics (TX) | Deliver nonpartisan, low-data materials: early vote calendars, ID checklists, site accessibility/curbside info, ride/carpool hotline. Coordinate with counties and C3 partners; ADA-first site guides. | Civic Engagement Lead | Design in 90 days; refresh before primaries and again before early vote (Oct 2026) | County elections offices, Hotline partner (211/NGO), Legal (permissible activities) |
| 6 | Culture- & Faith-Responsive Outreach SOP | SOP for prayer-aware scheduling, halal/kosher labeling, no alcohol at community events, language access, and anti-tokenism guardrails. Include review panels and a rapid-rectify protocol for missteps. | Coalitions Lead (Faith & Immigrant Communities) | SOP in 30 days; train staff/volunteers within 60 days | Community advisors (Houston, DFW, San Antonio), Training team, Event operations |
KPIs to Track
| # | KPI | Definition | Target | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | One-Pager Reach | Households reached (print) + unique low-data page visits to TX one-pagers; bilingual share reported. | 250k+ priority-county reaches by Q3 2026; ≥35% Spanish/English dual distribution | Monthly |
| 2 | SMS Quality Metric | Info:fundraising message ratio, avg length, click-to-useful rate, and STOP opt-out rate. | ≥3:1 info vs asks; STOP rate <2% weekly; click-to-useful ≥15% | Weekly |
| 3 | Small-Room Event Effectiveness | Attendee count vs capacity (≤75 seats), average Q&A handled, post-event trust delta (1–5). | ≥80% seats filled; ≥10 unscreened Qs; trust +0.6 | Per event |
| 4 | Contact→Pledge→Plan Funnel | Share of contacted voters who pledge support and receive a ballot plan (site/time/ride). | Pledge ≥25%; plan among pledgers ≥60% | Weekly |
| 5 | On-Time Commitments | Percent of published receipts milestones delivered by deadline (per county). | ≥80% on-time; 100% with public explanation if late | Monthly |
| 6 | Volunteer Efficiency | Shift fill rate, cost per conversation, and sit-down shift share. | ≥85% fill; <$2 per conversation; ≥40% sit-down shifts | Weekly |
Risks & Mitigations
| # | Risk | Mitigation | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Overpromising beyond organizational control on utilities, housing, or safety timelines. | Limit to actions within span-of-control; publish tradeoffs and dependencies; use phased targets. | Policy Director + COO |
| 2 | Texas election-law and 501(c)(3)/(c)(4) compliance risks for rides and voter info. | Pre-clear all materials with counsel; separate C3/C4 data and staff; maintain audit trails. | Compliance & Legal |
| 3 | Cultural or faith missteps (tokenism, scheduling conflicts, food rules). | Apply SOP with community review panels; book prayer-aware times; clear labeling; feedback loop to fix fast. | Coalitions Lead |
| 4 | Digital trust erosion (tracking links, heavy video, data caps). | Use low-data pages, no mandatory QR, minimize tracking, provide phone alternatives. | Digital Director |
| 5 | Backlash on foreign-policy or safety stances spilling into local outreach. | Hold listening sessions; state principles clearly (costs + humanity), log dissent, avoid performative optics. | Communications Director |
| 6 | Capacity strain to maintain monthly receipts and data hygiene. | Automate data pulls; templatize PDFs; add contractor bandwidth pre–early vote. | Operations/Chief of Staff |
Timeline
- Now–30 days: Quick wins live (one-pagers v1, SMS hygiene, town hall kit, TX voter logistics). Stand up community advisor group.
- Day 31–90: Data Hub MVP; receipts pilots in 3 counties; micro-field pilots (DFW, Houston, RGV, Hill Country rural).
- Apr–Jun 2026: Scale one-pagers across top TX counties; expand faith-responsive SOP; add cooling-center and ERCOT alerts to materials.
- Jul–Aug 2026: Ramp micro-shifts; publish mid-cycle receipts rollup; optimize SMS and volunteer funnel; secure ride/carpool partners.
- Sep–Election Day: GOTV focus on low-friction logistics; weekly receipts highlights; daily hotline QA; surge sit-down shifts.
- Post-Election (2 weeks): Public debrief: what hit/missed, cost per win, playbook export.
Objective and context
Purpose: Understand Texas midterm voter priorities, messaging preferences, and turnout motivations for 2026. Across the qualitative responses, voters are intensely practical and judge campaigns on tangible, local outcomes with dates, dollars, and named accountability.
Cross-question learnings (with evidence)
What drives vote choice: pocketbook relief and basic services that work. Respondents prioritize cost of living (groceries, rent, utilities, junk/hidden fees), health care (prescriptions, dental) plus disability/retirement protections, faster housing and homelessness solutions tied to treatment capacity, and dependable local services. As John Cruz put it: “Short version: my vote comes down to kitchen-table costs… the gas bill stings.” On housing and services, Patricia Thompson: “Build more, faster… actually open beds, treatment slots, and safe parking with bathrooms.” Public safety is framed as treatment plus targeted enforcement; Adriana Williams: “Fentanyl is wrecking families… I want treatment beds tied to consequences… and support for programs that get people sober and working.” Utility and climate reliability are operational anxieties, not abstractions. Across the board, respondents reject culture-war performativity and reward timelines, budgets, and receipts.
What outreach works: short, plain, specific, accountable. Voters favor one-page, one-issue communications with concrete numbers and tradeoffs. Elizabeth Switzer: “One-page mailer with plain words, 3–5 promises, a simple cost line.” They want place-based specificity and “receipts” (before/after, votes, named managers). In-person, small, local touch points matter-“Someone local knocks, listens 2 minutes, and leaves a one-pager with a real phone number” (John Cruz). Turn-offs: fear/attack ads (“I’m not your fear project” -Elizabeth Switzer), fundraising spam, robo-texts (“Endless texts and midnight ‘triple-match’ panic” -Billy Smith), and staged photo-ops.
Turnout and engagement: remove friction, prove follow-through, respect time. Low-friction voting logistics (mail/drop boxes, evening/weekend hours, rides/curbside) and concise commitments with dates and pay‑fors drive participation. “Five promises with dates and pay-fors. One sheet of paper I can stick on the fridge” (Adriana Williams). Protection of everyday needs (SNAP/LIHEAP/SSDI, lower health costs, fair rates) and visible monthly “receipts” increase both turnout and volunteer energy. Volunteers prefer micro-shifts, sit-down options, bilingual materials, and small reimbursements.
Persona correlations and nuances
- Lower-income older renters (e.g., John Cruz): seek benefit/security protections, utility relief, low-barrier paper one-pagers and phone contacts.
- Working-class city residents (e.g., Elizabeth Switzer, Billy Smith): want fridge-ready one-pagers, route/site-specific fixes, and extremely low-friction communications.
- Rural caregivers with some social-conservative views (e.g., Adriana Williams): support resilience (prescribed burns), treatment capacity, and reliable/affordable household energy.
- Small-business/gig managers (e.g., Patricia Thompson): prioritize permitting speed, predictable fees, customer access, and unscripted accountability.
- Religious/immigrant/minority homeowners (e.g., Christopher Valencia): link trust to foreign-policy stances (ceasefire/aid) and faith-friendly logistics (prayer-aware scheduling, halal labeling, no alcohol).
- Cross-cutting swing: pocketbook-first, service-credibility voters across ages/places respond to local, dated, costed commitments.
Recommendations for Texas 2026
- Publish one-issue, one-page promises with dates, dollars, pay‑fors, and a named accountable owner; deliver in English/Spanish.
- Stand up a Texas Local Specificity Data Hub to feed scripts and mail: ERCOT/heat resilience, transit routes, shelter/treatment bed counts, cooling centers.
- Run small-room, prayer-aware events with chairs, posted wait times, rides/childcare, and unscreened Q&A; follow with a one-page recap.
- Switch SMS to info-first hygiene: rare, short, low-data links, real opt-outs; eliminate panic fundraising and “triple-match” language.
- Publish monthly “receipts” by county: beds opened, permits issued, route fixes, utility wins; include misses and next steps.
- Adopt a micro-field model: 60–90 minute shifts, sit-down options, 30‑minute training, gas/childcare stipends, bilingual leave-behinds.
Risks and measurement guardrails
- Overpromising timelines on utilities/housing/safety → limit to span-of-control; show phased targets and tradeoffs.
- Legal/compliance on rides/voter info → pre-clear materials; maintain C3/C4 separation and audit trails.
- Cultural missteps → community review panels; prayer-aware scheduling; clear food labeling; fast feedback loop.
- Digital trust erosion → low-data pages, minimal tracking, phone alternatives.
- KPI: One‑Pager Reach (print + unique visits; bilingual share).
- KPI: SMS Quality (info:ask ratio ≥3:1; STOP <2%; click‑to‑useful ≥15%).
- KPI: Small‑Room Event Effectiveness (≥80% seats filled; ≥10 unscreened Qs; trust delta +0.6).
- KPI: Contact→Pledge→Plan funnel (25% pledge; 60% plans among pledgers).
- KPI: On‑Time Commitments (≥80% milestones on time; 100% explanations if late).
Next steps
- Next 30 days: launch TX one-pagers (v1), SMS hygiene, small-room event kit, and voter logistics one-pager; convene community advisors.
- Days 31–90: Data Hub MVP; pilot monthly receipts in three counties; pilot micro-field in three metro and two rural markets.
- Apr–Jun 2026: scale one-pagers statewide; expand faith-responsive SOP; add ERCOT/heat and cooling-center alerts.
- Jul–Aug 2026: ramp micro-shifts; publish mid-cycle receipts rollup; optimize SMS and volunteer funnel; secure ride partners.
- Sep–Election Day: GOTV focus on low-friction logistics; weekly receipts highlights; daily hotline QA.
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Which candidate positions would be dealbreakers for your support in 2026, regardless of agreement on other issues? Select all that apply.multi select Surfaces red lines to avoid in policy positioning and coalition-building.
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Main insights: Winning outreach is hyper-local and time-respectful-one-page/one-issue, plain language with dates, dollars, and a named owner, delivered in-person or via short, low-data channels, with visible “receipts”; attack ads and fundraising spam backfire. Turnout rises with low-friction logistics (mail/drop boxes, clear sites, evening/weekend hours, rides/curbside) plus concise commitments and protection of everyday needs; volunteer energy increases with micro-shifts, small reimbursements, bilingual simple materials, and monthly progress updates. Texas takeaways: prioritize ERCOT reliability and heat/wildfire resilience, affordable health/Rx, housing + treatment beds, transit/road basics, and junk-fee crackdowns-then publish monthly receipts with tradeoffs and a contact. Do not lean on fear/culture-war or opaque money; deliver one visible local win early and keep communications info-first and respectful of people’s time.
| Name | Response | Info |
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