Florida 2026 Voter Priorities

Florida 2026 Voter Priorities: What Matters, Why It Matters, and What to Do

Objective and context. We set out to understand Florida voter priorities ahead of the 2026 special Senate election, with emphasis on housing costs, the insurance crisis, affordability messaging, and voter motivation. Across seven prompts and 10 respondents, one throughline dominates: an insurance-driven “anxiety tax” shaping daily life and political credibility tests.

Headline learning. Insurance instability is the top, cross-cutting pain. Eight of ten name insurance first, and all describe premium spikes, non‑renewals, hurricane deductibles, and paperwork that force cash‑hoarding and deferred spending. A homeowner reported paying roughly $1,950 in 2019 and ~$3,980 at last renewal, now paired with a hurricane deductible “that’s $12,000 before help.” Renters feel pass‑throughs (landlords raising rent), small businesses cite commercial‑auto and workers’ comp shocks, and everyday basics (groceries/gas) pinch but with less intensity. Immigration is “loud on TV but not a day‑to‑day wallet issue.”

Election salience and message tests. The 2026 race is moderately important: most will vote, but it competes with household pressures. Name recognition is low; substance beats spectacle. Voters want federal levers that hit home fast-FEMA/NFIP speed, reinsurance stability, disaster mitigation, and affordable healthcare for the uninsured. They broadly accept an “affordability” frame, but only with receipts: numbers, dates, and enforcement that show up on the next renewal (several set a $100/month reduction test). Many note Republicans promise tax cuts and deregulation yet premiums still climbed; that outcome gap creates space for pragmatic, verifiable plans.

Insurance crisis: who’s to blame and what fixes earn trust. Voters spread blame across insurers/reinsurers, fraud/litigation mills, and slow or misfired state policymaking. Their demand is consistent: concrete, time‑bound action with consequences. Priorities include upfront mitigation grants for roofs/windows/straps with guaranteed premium credits next cycle; a public reinsurance backstop conditioned on mandatory carrier pass‑throughs; claims‑speed SLAs (30–60 days) with penalties; limits on surprise non‑renewals; and roof‑age rules based on inspection, not blanket cutoffs. Simplicity and access matter: one‑page, bilingual explanations and local help to navigate forms.

The doorstep standard. A slogan won’t move votes. Voters expect a one‑pager listing the first 3 bills/actions, numeric targets, timelines (weeks/months/12 months), staff contacts, and a public ZIP‑level scoreboard. Housing asks are pragmatic (fast permits, ADUs/duplexes, starter/workforce supply, curb bulk investor purchases, tie landlord aid to rent holds). “Wages” translates as workforce: paid apprenticeships, childcare/commute supports, tools/stipends. Immediate operational relief (7‑day mitigation/deductible aid) is repeatedly requested.

Deal‑breakers. Accepting insurer/landlord PAC money, vague undated plans, and culture‑war theatrics are the clearest vote‑losers. Place‑based lines include Glades water/tribal rights. A vocal strand flags privacy (warrantless data/telematics) as an absolute red line. Accessibility failures (no Spanish, no night hearings) erode trust.

Persona correlations. Students/near‑campus renters (data‑driven) prioritize rent pass‑throughs and quick supply; trades/small‑biz owners focus on commercial‑auto and predictable rules; rural homeowners emphasize NFIP/FEMA and reinsurance with measurable outcomes; insurance‑savvy respondents want enforcement against fraud plus transparent pass‑throughs; uninsured young adults center Marketplace subsidies; Spanish‑speaking and rural/Glades communities require bilingual, in‑person outreach.

Recommendations, Risks, and Guardrails

• Ship bilingual one‑pagers that state one number + one date per promise (targets tied to the next renewal). Include staff contacts and a county/ZIP scoreboard.
• Adopt a clean‑money pledge (no insurer/landlord PACs) with a real‑time donor feed to satisfy the dominant trust litmus.
• Advance an Insurance Relief Package: upfront mitigation grants with guaranteed premium credits; a reinsurance backstop conditioned on mandatory, audited pass‑throughs; claims‑speed SLAs; non‑renewal limits; roof‑age sanity.
• Stand up insurance help clinics (libraries/churches/tribal centers), a bilingual hotline/textback, and 7‑day deductible‑aid navigation.
• Student/renter plan: fast‑track ADUs/duplexes near campuses; tie landlord aid to rent holds; transparent insurance‑cost disclosures.
• Small‑biz relief: commercial‑auto pooling/backstop, fraud‑focused enforcement, paid apprenticeships (HVAC/CDL/linemen) with tools/stipends.

• Risks: overpromising near‑term cuts; industry backlash; state/federal authority limits; storm disruptions; privacy/donor hypocrisy. Guardrails: conservative, auditable targets; public data room and third‑party validators; dual‑track state/federal levers; storm‑mode field ops; a posted privacy pledge; “include one number + one date or don’t air” rule.

Next Steps and Measurement

1. 0–30 days: Publish bilingual one‑pagers and 60‑second “how your bill drops” script; launch clean‑money pledge; schedule first 3 clinics; dashboard v1 live.
2. 30–90 days: Pilot clinics in high‑anxiety ZIPs (incl. Glades/tribal); campus renter rollouts; small‑biz roundtables; donor feed realtime.
3. 90–180 days: Scale to a 12‑site clinic rotation; release first verified renewal premium drops; quarterly town halls; storm‑mode tested.

• KPIs: unaided recall of a specific $/date from the plan (≥40% by 90 days); Spanish reach/case resolution (≥35% materials, ≥90% resolved in 7 days); households enrolled in mitigation/credits and verified avg. $ drop on renewal (target ≥$25/mo by 6 months); +12‑point trust lift on “not influenced by insurer/landlord money” in priority ZIPs; ≥30% clinic/forum conversion to supporter/pledge.