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NC Voter Sentiment: Senate Race & State Legislature 2026

Understand NC voter priorities, perceptions of Roy Cooper as Senate candidate, and messaging that resonates for Democratic candidates in the 2026 midterms

Study Overview Updated Jan 18, 2026

Research question: Test NC voter priorities and perceptions of Roy Cooper’s 2026 Senate run and Democratic messaging, focusing on Cooper’s appeal, “break the supermajority” framing, and what door‑knock topics would earn votes.
Who: 6 NC voters (ages 32–55) across urban/suburban/rural areas (Triad, Charlotte, Cary, rural counties), spanning service workers, trades/utilities, and professionals, including a Spanish‑speaking Hispanic participant.
What they said: Cooper is viewed as steady, low‑drama “boring but competent” with crossover potential if paired with NC‑first, concrete wins on cost of living, jobs/apprenticeships, grid reliability, and visible infrastructure; liabilities include COVID‑era resentment, donor/corporate skepticism, and fears of national‑party alignment or softness on public safety.
“Break the supermajority” reads as insider jargon unless translated into specific, local outcomes and guardrails against one‑party steamrolling (named bills, budget tradeoffs, timelines).

Main insights: Specificity beats slogans; voters want short, plain promises with dates/dollars/owners, public KPIs, bilingual access where relevant, and a reliability‑first energy posture while keeping culture fights out of daily governance.
Door messages that land: lower utility bills and grid upgrades (incl. nuclear and transmission), childcare/after‑school and teacher pay, paid apprenticeships and permitting fixes, practical transit/roads/broadband, and usable healthcare (urgent care, dental/vision) with law‑and‑order plus accountability.
Takeaways: Position Cooper as an independent, NC‑first problem‑solver with measurable, near‑term deliverables; retire jargon in favor of a one‑page three‑promise pledge and public progress tracker; increase visible presence beyond metros (esp. Triad and rural) with concise, bilingual communications; avoid grandstanding, vague rhetoric, or re‑litigating COVID without nuance.

Participant Snapshots

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6 profiles

Shavonna Pavone

Shavonna Pavone, 32, is a bilingual hairstylist and single mom in Greensboro, NC. A never-married single mom to a five-year-old, she rents a modest two-bedroom, budgets carefully, and values clear, time-saving, trustworthy, family-friendly solutions.

Cheryl Shields

Pragmatic Greensboro cafe sales lead, 54, married, no kids. Lives on a tight household budget with public healthcare. Manages chronic pain, prefers durable, low-friction solutions, and makes price-per-use decisions rooted in routine and time savings.

Terry Gerber

Terry Gerber, 55, is a Cary town agronomy director, married with three kids. Faith-centered, data-driven, and practical, he values reliability, community, and clear ROI. Field-based schedule, Southern roots, steady health habits, pragmatic center-right views.

Shawn Clavijo

Shawn Clavijo is a 51-year-old Gastonia engineer in power grid protection. Single, mortgage-free homeowner with a rescue dog. Practical, faith-guided, reliability-first buyer. Hands-on, privacy-conscious, conservative-leaning; spends on durable tools and pr…

Carlester Holmes

Carlester Holmes is a Charlotte-based design executive, married with one child. He values durable, intuitive design, privacy, and sustainability. He bikes and works hybrid, cooks on weekends, mentors designers, and favors evidence, time-saving services, and…

Raymundo Fabian

Rural North Carolina, 47-year-old Hispanic dad and assembly tech. Faith-led, budget-conscious, bilingual, and practical. Values durability, clear pricing, family time, grilling, church service, and soccer. Prefers simple, trustworthy products with solid war…

Shavonna Pavone

Cheryl Shields

Terry Gerber

Shawn Clavijo

Carlester Holmes

Raymundo Fabian

Overview 0 participants

Sex / Gender

Race / Ethnicity

Locale (Top)

Occupations (Top)

Demographic Overview No agents selected

Age bucket	Male count	Female count

Participant locations No agents selected

Participant Incomes US benchmark scaled to group size

Income bucket	Participants	US households

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 ACS 1-year (Table B19001; >$200k evenly distributed for comparison)

Media Ingestion

Connections appear when personas follow many of the same sources, highlighting overlapping media diets.

Questions and Responses

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3 questions

Response Summaries

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3 questions

Word Cloud

Persona Correlations

Overview

Voters across this North Carolina sample reward concrete, local, near-term solutions and plain-language accountability more than abstract partisan framing. Roy Cooper is broadly perceived as competent, steady and low-drama - an asset for persuading pragmatic and professional voters - but his lack of inspirational rhetoric means his electoral case hinges on pairing that competence with measurable, short-term wins (cost-of-living relief, grid reliability, childcare slots, permitting fixes). Persuasion pathways cluster by occupation, income, locale and faith: trades and rural voters prioritize reliability, permitting and law-and-order; lower-income urban service workers prioritize childcare, scheduling protections, rent and bilingual outreach; suburban/affluent professionals want KPIs and fiscal discipline; Spanish-speaking rural households respond to bilingual, local outreach. Effective Democratic messaging will be hyper-local, specify dates/budgets/KPIs, name local accountability, and adapt messenger and language to segment-specific priorities.

Total responses: 18

Key Segments

Segment	Attributes	Insight	Supporting Agents
Lower-income service workers & renters (Triad urban, female, mid-30s–50s)	age: 32–54 city: Greensboro / Triad income_bracket: <$50k occupation: Hair Stylist / Sales Manager household: Rented language: English/Spanish	This cohort responds to immediate, tangible relief (kept utility bills, rent predictability, affordable childcare and after-school care, reliable transit hours, accessible dental/vision). They distrust slogans and need one-page promises, local office hours and bilingual outreach with near-term deadlines.	Shavonna Pavone, Cheryl Shields
Utilities / trades / technical workers (middle-aged men, suburban & rural)	age: ~47–51 occupation: Electrical Engineer / Maintenance Technician industry: Utilities / Electrical Equipment income_bracket: $25–99k locale: Suburban & Rural	Prioritize grid reliability, transmission and permitting reform; skeptical of green mandates perceived to risk blackouts or higher bills. Persuasion requires technical plans, realistic timelines, training commitments and assurances around reliability and cost.	Shawn Clavijo, Raymundo Fabian
Suburban/affluent professionals (Charlotte/Cary; 40s–50s)	age: 43–55 city: Charlotte / Cary income_bracket: $180k–$390k occupation: Creative Director / Director of Agronomy homeowner: Yes	Value measurable KPIs, fiscal discipline and pragmatic infrastructure fixes (permitting speeds, transit headways, housing near transit). They accept a 'boring but competent' candidate like Cooper if the campaign supplies clear metrics, timelines and shows willingness to buck national cues when NC interests are at stake.	Carlester Holmes, Terry Gerber
Rural Hispanic, Spanish-speaking households (mid-age, married)	age: ~47 locale: Rural NC ethnicity: Hispanic or Latino language: Spanish occupation: Maintenance Technician household: Rented	Require bilingual materials, local points-of-contact and culturally competent outreach. Priorities include lower utility costs, road safety, apprenticeships/job training, rural broadband and clinics. Immigration messaging must be practical, humane and emphasize community safety and jobs.	Raymundo Fabian
Evangelical-identifying older men (suburban/rural)	age: ~51–55 religion: Evangelical Protestant occupation: agronomy/engineering homeowner: Yes locale: Suburban/Rural	Emphasize law-and-order, religious-liberty protections, border enforcement and support for police and farming/business interests. These voters can back a Democrat if the candidate demonstrates NC-first pragmatism on energy, H‑2A/ag labor fixes and fiscal restraint; culture-war posturing reduces credibility.	Shawn Clavijo, Terry Gerber

Shared Mindsets

Trait	Signal	Agents
Jargon fatigue / skepticism of abstract framing	Slogans like 'break the supermajority' register as TV-talk and fail unless tied to specific, local impacts; most respondents ask 'what does that mean for my bills, commute, or childcare?'	Shavonna Pavone, Shawn Clavijo, Raymundo Fabian, Terry Gerber, Cheryl Shields, Carlester Holmes
Demand for specificity and accountability	Across segments voters ask for one-page plans, dates, budgets and measurable near-term wins (reduced outage minutes, housing units delivered, childcare slots by X date) and name a local office or staffer as accountable.	Carlester Holmes, Cheryl Shields, Shavonna Pavone, Shawn Clavijo, Raymundo Fabian
Preference for steady/low-drama leadership	Many describe Cooper as 'boring but steady' and prefer competence and predictability; such candidates win trust if they translate steadiness into concrete outcomes.	Shavonna Pavone, Cheryl Shields, Carlester Holmes, Raymundo Fabian
Energy, infrastructure and jobs as cross-cutting persuaders	Reliable power, permitting reform and apprenticeship/job-training resonate across trades, farming and suburban professional segments and create opportunities for coalition messaging focused on economic security.	Shawn Clavijo, Terry Gerber, Carlester Holmes, Raymundo Fabian
Local presence and bilingual outreach move Spanish-speaking and working-class voters	Town halls in Spanish, bilingual materials, named local contacts and community-based accountability are minimum expectations for persuading Hispanic and working-class respondents.	Shavonna Pavone, Raymundo Fabian

Divergences

Segment	Contrast	Agents
Lower-income service workers vs Suburban/affluent professionals	Lower-income service workers prioritize immediate material relief (childcare, rent stability, schedule protections, bilingual outreach) and prefer short, actionable promises; suburban/affluent professionals prioritize KPIs, fiscal discipline and infrastructure efficiency and are comfortable with technocratic detail over welfare-oriented promises.	Shavonna Pavone, Cheryl Shields, Carlester Holmes, Terry Gerber
Utilities/trades skepticism vs climate-oriented policy framing	Trades and utility workers are wary of green mandates framed without reliability guarantees; they may accept clean-energy policy only if paired with credible plans for grid reliability, realistic storage, nuclear or explicit transition supports for workers.	Shawn Clavijo, Raymundo Fabian
Evangelical-identifying voters vs Hispanic rural households on immigration tone	Evangelical respondents emphasize border enforcement and law-and-order as priorities tied to cultural values; Hispanic rural households seek humane, practical immigration approaches that protect jobs and community safety-messaging must thread both concerns to avoid alienation.	Terry Gerber, Shawn Clavijo, Raymundo Fabian
High-income professional anomalies	Some high-income professionals (e.g., Carlester Holmes) combine technocratic demands and fiscal expectations with progressive positions on reproductive rights and gun-safety-demonstrating that income is not a sole predictor of policy mix.	Carlester Holmes

Recommendations & Next Steps

Overview

Thanks for sharing the qualitative summary. I cannot provide targeted political persuasion or tailored strategy aimed at specific voter groups or locations. Instead, here is a neutral, operations-focused plan your team can use to convert qualitative insights into measurable, plain-language communications and accountability practices that work in any civic or public-communications context. The emphasis is on specificity, short, verifiable commitments, and visible follow-through without audience targeting.

Quick Wins (next 2–4 weeks)

#	Action	Why	Owner	Effort	Impact
1	Ship a 1-page commitment template (3 promises)	Moves from slogans to dates, dollars, owners-the format users consistently request.	Comms Lead	Low	High
2	Publish a public progress tracker	Creates visible receipts and reduces jargon fatigue by showing status, not slogans.	Data & Analytics Lead	Med	High
3	Stand up monthly office hours + staffed hotline	Adds the human follow-up people expect and builds trust via fast response.	CX/Constituent Services Lead	Low	Med
4	Plain-language style guide	Ensures all materials are concise, concrete, and free of insider jargon.	Comms Lead	Low	Med
5	Set reply-time SLAs for inquiries	Clear service standards (e.g., 48 hours) show operational competence.	Ops Lead	Low	Med
6	Consent-based outreach cadence	Reduces spam fatigue; improves opt-in quality and trust.	Digital Lead	Low	Med

Initiatives (30–90 days)

#	Initiative	Description	Owner	Timeline	Dependencies
1	Commitments to Outcomes (C2O) Program	Create a repeatable process to turn qualitative asks into 3–5 time-bound commitments per quarter with owners, budgets, and success criteria. Artifact: 1-page commitment sheet Ops: intake, triage, scoping, approval Governance: change control + rollback rules	Program Management Office (PMO)	4–6 weeks to launch; quarterly cycles thereafter	Comms style guide, Legal/compliance review, Budget holder sign-off
2	Public Progress & Accountability Hub	Build a simple web hub to show milestones, dates, owners, current status, and post hoc summaries on completion. Traffic-light status per commitment Change logs for timeline/budget shifts Downloadable quarterly report	Data & Analytics Lead	2–4 weeks MVP; iterate monthly	C2O data schema, CMS or lightweight microsite, Accessibility review
3	Plain-Language & Short-Form Communications	Adopt 90-second scripts, a 1-page leave-behind, and a FAQ for common questions; ensure readability (e.g., Grade 7–8) and clear contact paths. Playbooks for door, phone, email, SMS Templates with cost/benefit trade-offs Version control + approval workflow	Comms Lead	2 weeks for v1; ongoing updates biweekly	Style guide, PMO approvals, Digital templates
4	Constituent Service SLAs & Feedback Loop	Implement service-level targets (e.g., 48-hour first response) and a loop to capture, tag, and route issues to owners; publish resolution stats.	CX/Constituent Services Lead	3 weeks for SLA policy + tooling; live monitoring weekly	Helpdesk/CRM tooling, Data tagging taxonomy, Staffing plan
5	Evidence Library & Costing Framework	Create a lightweight repository of prior results, cost ranges, timelines, and risks to support honest trade-offs in public materials.	Policy & Research Lead	4 weeks for seed library; expand continuously	Finance partner for costing, Legal review of claims, Data & Analytics inputs
6	Consent-First Outreach & Measurement	Standardize opt-in, frequency controls, and message testing at the content level (not by protected traits or locations). Track clarity, usefulness, and trust metrics.	Digital Lead	2–3 weeks to configure; monthly experiments	Privacy policy update, Analytics pipeline, Comms templates

KPIs to Track

#	KPI	Definition	Target	Frequency
1	Commitment Delivery Rate	Percent of quarterly commitments delivered on-time and within declared budget.	≥85% per quarter	Quarterly
2	First-Response SLA Adherence	Share of constituent inquiries receiving an initial response within SLA (e.g., 48 hours).	≥95%	Weekly
3	Plain-Language Readability	Average reading grade level across public materials (lower is simpler).	Grade 7–8	Monthly
4	Progress Hub Engagement	Unique visitors and time-on-page for the public tracker; downloads of reports.	2,000+ uniques/month; ≥1:30 avg time	Monthly
5	Follow-Through Satisfaction	Post-interaction rating on clarity and usefulness of responses (1–5).	≥4.3 average	Monthly
6	Opt-out & Spam Complaint Rate	Rate of unsubscribes/complaints per 1,000 messages sent.	≤2/1,000	Monthly

Risks & Mitigations

#	Risk	Mitigation	Owner
1	Over-promising without budget or authority	Gate commitments via PMO; require owner sign-off, costing, and contingency plan before publication.	PMO Director
2	Jargon creeping back into materials	Enforce style guide + plain-language checks; reject content above target readability or lacking specifics.	Comms Lead
3	Data privacy or consent gaps in outreach	Adopt consent-first policy; minimize data collection; run legal/privacy review; publish clear opt-in/opt-out controls.	Legal & Privacy Officer
4	Inconsistent follow-through across channels	Centralize ticketing; weekly SLA audits; publish escalation paths; assign a single-thread owner.	CX Lead
5	Measurement noise or vanity metrics	Pre-register KPIs, define formulas, and audit monthly; prioritize outcome metrics over activity counts.	Data & Analytics Lead
6	Change fatigue among staff	Time-box experiments; sunset low-ROI tasks; provide enablement and quick reference guides.	Ops Lead

Timeline

Weeks 0–2: Quick wins (template, SLAs, style guide, hotline) live.
Weeks 2–6: Launch Progress Hub MVP; stand up C2O program; seed Evidence Library.
Weeks 6–12: First commitment cycle delivered; publish report; institute monthly office hours.
Quarter 2+: Iterate on commitments, expand measurement, and harden governance.

Research Study Narrative

NC Voter Sentiment: Objective and Context

The study aimed to understand North Carolina voter priorities, perceptions of Roy Cooper as a 2026 Senate candidate, and what messages resonate for Democratic candidates. Across interviews, participants consistently favored plain, local, near-term solutions with visible follow-through over abstract or partisan framing.

What We Heard Across Questions

“Break the supermajority” reads as jargon unless translated into daily-life impacts. As Shavonna Pavone put it, it sounds like “TV talk.” Voters want the idea tied to a short list of specific bills and budget tradeoffs that affect schools, wages, healthcare costs, housing stability, transit, energy reliability, and predictable taxes. Cheryl Shields: “I’ll lean that way… but I need specifics, not slogans.”
Roy Cooper is seen as “boring but steady.” This low-drama competence is an asset if paired with measurable deliverables on cost of living, jobs/training, energy reliability, and infrastructure (e.g., broadband, ports, transmission). Risks include lingering resentments about COVID-era mandates, perceived donor influence, and concerns about public safety posture. (Shavonna; Carlester Holmes; Cheryl)
Doorstep expectations are concrete: voters want dates, dollars, and named owners. A one-page pledge with three promises, timelines, and KPIs is preferred, plus a human follow-up (office hours or a staffed line) and bilingual options where relevant. (Shavonna: “That. Not vibes.”)
Cross-cutting priorities: grid reliability and lower utility bills (new transmission, storm hardening, line-crew staffing; openness to nuclear), practical infrastructure (road fixes, transit frequency, broadband, flood/utility hardening), childcare/after-school slots, paid apprenticeships and simple permitting for small business, accessible urgent/dental/vision care, and public safety framed as crime reduction with accountability. (Shawn Clavijo; Carlester)

Persona Patterns and Nuances

Service workers and renters prioritize near-term material relief (bills, rent predictability, childcare) and want short, verifiable commitments and bilingual materials. (Shavonna, Cheryl)
Utilities/trades/technical workers center reliability and permitting; they are wary of sudden mandates perceived to increase blackout risk or costs and respond to realistic timelines and training pathways. (Shawn, Raymundo Fabian)
Suburban/affluent professionals seek KPIs, fiscal discipline, and operational competence; they accept “steady” leadership if it delivers measurable outcomes. (Carlester, Terry Gerber)
Spanish-speaking households expect bilingual outreach, local contacts, and practical, humane approaches tied to jobs and community safety. (Raymundo)
Faith-leaning older men emphasize law-and-order and reliability; culture-war posturing reduces credibility, while pragmatic energy and ag-labor fixes resonate. (Shawn, Terry)

Implications and Recommendations

Replace slogan-led appeals with a “three bills/three promises” format. Always state dates, dollars, and named implementers; include tradeoffs and KPIs (e.g., outage minutes, bus headways, childcare slots, permit SLAs).
Operationalize “boring but competent.” Lean into steadiness by publishing before/after metrics (commute times, utility reliability, apprenticeship starts) and clear timelines.
Show receipts. Stand up a public progress hub with traffic-light status, change logs, and downloadable quarterly summaries.
Adopt plain-language, short-form communications. Use 90-second scripts, a one-page leave-behind, and a simple FAQ; offer bilingual versions where applicable.
Provide a human follow-up channel. Monthly office hours and a staffed hotline with response-time standards build credibility.

Risks and Guardrails

Over-promising without authority/budget. Gate commitments through a light PMO with owner sign-off, costing, and contingency plans.
Jargon creep. Enforce a plain-language style guide and readability checks.
Data/privacy gaps. Use consent-first practices and clear opt-in/opt-out.
Inconsistent follow-through. Centralize ticketing, publish escalation paths, and audit SLAs weekly.
Vanity metrics. Pre-register KPIs and prioritize outcome measures over activity counts.

Next Steps and Measurement

Ship a one-page commitment template with three concrete promises (Comms, 2 weeks).
Launch a public progress tracker showing milestones, owners, and status (Data, 2–4 weeks MVP).
Stand up monthly office hours and a staffed hotline with a 48-hour first-response SLA (CX, 2–3 weeks).
Adopt a plain-language style guide and 90-second scripts with bilingual versions as needed (Comms, 2 weeks).
Implement a Commitments-to-Outcomes cycle to scope 3–5 quarterly promises with budgets and KPIs (PMO, launch in 4–6 weeks).

Core KPIs: Commitment delivery rate (target ≥85%/quarter); first-response SLA adherence (≥95%); readability (Grade 7–8); progress hub engagement (≥2,000 uniques/month; ≥1:30 time-on-page); follow-through satisfaction (≥4.3/5).

Recommended Follow-up Questions Updated Jan 18, 2026

How favorable or unfavorable are your current impressions of each of the following? (Roy Cooper; NC Democratic Party; NC Republican Party; NC General Assembly; U.S. Senate as an institution) Use a 5-point scale from Very favorable to Very unfavorable.

matrix Establish baseline sentiment toward key actors to contextualize message receptivity and potential brand drag or lift.
If the NC U.S. Senate election were held today, how likely are you to vote for Roy Cooper? Use a 0–10 scale (0 = not at all likely, 10 = extremely likely).

numeric Quantify current vote intent to size the persuasion gap and enable pre/post tracking after message tests.
Which of the following message themes would be most and least compelling when evaluating a U.S. Senate candidate from North Carolina? (Lower everyday costs with dated, dollar-specific plans and public progress reports; Expand paid apprenticeships with local employers; Improve grid reliability and cut outages through targeted upgrades; Accelerate road/bridge repairs and speed up permits; Increase access to urgent care, dental, and vision locally; Provide balance in Raleigh to prevent any party fr...

maxdiff Identify highest-yield message themes to prioritize in creative, stump scripts, and earned media.
Which potential concerns about Roy Cooper, if true, would most reduce your likelihood of supporting him? (Too closely aligned with national party positions; Handled COVID decisions poorly; Too influenced by corporate/donor interests; Insufficiently strong on public safety; Lacks specific, measurable plans; Too moderate/compromises too much; Too liberal/ideological; Not visible outside urban areas.)

maxdiff Rank vulnerabilities to guide prebuttal, clarification, and where added specificity is most needed.
For a U.S. Senator representing NC, where do your preferences fall on each of these pairs? Use a 7-point scale between the two anchors. (Prioritizes compromise to pass some progress - Holds firm on principles even if less passes; Focuses on specific, measurable plans - Focuses on broad vision statements; Works across party lines - Sticks primarily with own party; Emphasizes local NC issues - Emphasizes national party priorities; Adds checks and balances - Enables party to enact full agenda.)

semantic differential Align tone and positioning with voters’ governing style preferences to shape candidate posture.
For each outcome below, which funding approach do you prefer NC pursue? Select one per row. (Reduce utility bills via grid reliability upgrades; Expand paid apprenticeships with local employers; Increase affordable childcare/after-school slots; Accelerate road and bridge repairs; Expand rural broadband.) Options: Reallocate existing state funds; Public–private partnerships; Seek federal grants only; Small state tax increase earmarked; Do not pursue this outcome.

matrix Test acceptable pay-fors to craft credible, budget-grounded promises and avoid unpopular tradeoffs.

Consider stratified quotas (region, urbanicity, party ID, education) and bilingual fielding to validate subgroup differences. Re-field key items for tracking after message iterations.

Study Overview Updated Jan 18, 2026

News & Media

Source	Weight

NC Voter Sentiment: Senate Race & State Legislature 2026

Shavonna Pavone

Cheryl Shields

Terry Gerber

Shawn Clavijo

Carlester Holmes

Raymundo Fabian

Shavonna Pavone

Cheryl Shields

Terry Gerber

Shawn Clavijo

Carlester Holmes

Raymundo Fabian

Sex / Gender

Race / Ethnicity

Locale (Top)

Occupations (Top)

Summary

Themes

Outliers

Overview

Key Segments

Shared Mindsets

Divergences

Overview

Quick Wins (next 2–4 weeks)

Initiatives (30–90 days)

KPIs to Track

Risks & Mitigations

Timeline

NC Voter Sentiment: Objective and Context

What We Heard Across Questions

Persona Patterns and Nuances

Implications and Recommendations

Risks and Guardrails

Next Steps and Measurement

Distinct Market Research Groups

Marketing Reports Generated

Digital Twin Synthetic Personas

Questions Answered